Research Notes
MCP Market Update: January 22nd, 2019 – The Year Ahead: Hope springs eternal
In 2018, we were looking for a topping equity market, rising rates and strengthening US dollar as central banks reduced liquidity. Global fundamentals of debt, deflation and slowing growth will continue to provide headwinds throughout 2019. The question is how long...
MCP Market Update: October 8th, 2018 – Yields Break
Last week we finally saw US bonds break major support (TLT 116) that we have been watching closely. This is a major turning point for risk assets in a debt fuelled world and in particular, its effect on Emerging Market debt which when combined with a strengthening US...
MCP Market Update: July 1st, 2018 – Calm before the Storm
Last week we discussed our thesis for a potential market top in risk assets in "Has the Music Stopped?". In Part 2 - "Calm before the storm" we examine in more detail the potential market structures unfolding in global equity markets. We remain tactically bearish...
Brief Equity Market Update: Triangles
Elliott Wave Triangles usually occur in 4th waves. They occur when a market has rallied too far too fast and the market needs to correct time and price in a primary trend. The exponential SPX rally from August 2017 through to end January highlighted below is a perfect...
MCP Market Update: January 16th, 2018 – Blow-off or Acceleration?
Reminder: As I will be on vacation from January 29th through to February 16th, we will likely miss updates for the 5th and 12th of February - apologies in advance US equity markets continued to rally strongly to the point of rising exponentially over the first couple...