The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equity markets rebounded while holding 50 day sma trend support despite rising Iran tensions. The strength of the rally and lack of downside follow through warns of a bullish triangle consolidation and 5th wave extension higher. While there are enough waves in place to complete this rally, bears need to see downside follow through that breaks 50 then 200 day sma trend support to help confirm a bearish change in trend. Bonds extended lower last week to test layered support but the...

Last week, equity markets traded sideways while holding 50 day sma trend support. While the bearish setup remains intact, the strength of the rally and lack of downside follow through warns of a potential bullish extension higher. While there are enough waves in place to complete this rally, bears need to see downside follow through that breaks 50 then 200 day sma trend support to help confirm a bearish change in trend. The bullish alternate is triangle wave 4 consolidation before another wave...

Last week, equity markets traded sideways to down while testing 50 day sma trend support. While the bearish setup remains intact, the strength of the rally and lack of downside follow through warns of a potential bullish extension higher. While there are enough waves in place to complete this rally, bears need to see downside follow through that breaks 50 then 200 day sma trend support to help confirm a bearish change in trend. The bullish alternate is another wave 5 extension higher. Bonds...

Last week, equity markets traded sideways while holding key 50 day sma trend support. While the bearish setup remains intact, the strength of the rally and lack of downside follow through warns of a potential bullish extension higher. While there are enough waves in place to complete this rally, bears need to see downside follow through that breaks 50 day sma trend support to help confirm a bearish change in trend. The bullish alternate is another wave 5 extension higher. Bonds remain range...

Last week, equity markets extended lower into 50 day sma support before rebounding strongly. While the bearish setup remains intact while below ATH's, the strength of the rally warns of another failed reversal attempt and bullish extension higher. While there are enough waves in place to complete this rally, bears need to see downside follow through this week that breaks 50 day sma trend support to help confirm a bearish change in trend. The bullish alternate is another wave 5 extension...

Last week, equity markets extended marginally higher towards measured targets before reversing sharply lower. There are now enough waves in place to complete this ending rally but bears need to see downside follow through this week to break near term support and confirm a bearish change in trend. Ideally, we'd like to see an impulsive decline that extends lower this week to help set up a larger degree decline. The question is whether this rally completed all of wave 5 of (5) or wave (3) of a...

Last week, equity markets extended higher as expected but we continue to see this latest rally as an ending wave. The bull market rally continues to extend higher towards upside targets with no confirmation of a tradable top. While this rally counts best as an ending 5th wave, hope springs eternal and the bull market remains intact until “proven” otherwise. Bears need to reverse this rally back below the wave (iv) lows to help confirm a top. Bonds rallied impulsively to help set up wave (a) or...

Last week, equity markets held near term support and extended higher as the bears failed to see downside follow through. The bull market rally continues to extend higher with no confirmation of a tradable top. While this rally counts best as an ending 5th wave, hope springs eternal and the bull market remains intact until "proven" otherwise. Bears need to reverse this rally back below last week's low to help confirm a top. Bonds pushed to marginal new lows before reversing sharply higher as...

Last week, equities extended higher towards the target zone before reversing lower late in the week. There are enough waves in place to complete the impulsive rally from the March lows but there is no confirmation of a tradable top. Bears need to see downside follow through this week and extend this decline immediately lower in 5 waves to help to help confirm a completed rally and bearish change in trend. Too early to call as we await bearish confirmation. Global rates are threatening to break...

Last week, equity markets extended higher as expected and are now testing upside targets. While there are enough waves in place to complete wave (v) of 5 to new ATH’s, there is no evidence of a tradable top. While this rally can continue to extend higher, we are alert to the potential for trend exhaustion and a bearish reversal. Given the strength of the rally, it would be best to await evidence of a reversal as hope springs eternal. Bonds rebounded from trend support for what we expect to be...