The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equity markets extended higher as expected and are now testing upside targets. While there are enough waves in place to complete wave (v) of 5 to new ATH’s, there is no evidence of a tradable top. While this rally can continue to extend higher, we are alert to the potential for trend exhaustion and a bearish reversal. Given the strength of the rally, it would be best to await evidence of a reversal as hope springs eternal. Bonds rebounded from trend support for what we expect to be...

Last week, equity markets extended higher as expected and are fast approaching measured targets. While there are enough waves in place to complete wave 5 to new ATH's, the structure would still look best with a final extension towards the target zone. While this rally can continue to extend higher, we are now alert to evidence of trend exhaustion or a bearish reversal. Given the strength of the rally, it would be best to await evidence of a turn as hope springs eternal. Bonds continued to...

Last week, equities consolidated lower last week before extending higher as expected. The stage is set for a final wave (v) of 5 extension higher to new ATH's this week but the upside may be limited. The risk remains that this is an ending rally before a potential bear reversal - is it a bull trap? Markets are rallying on "hope" of an Iran resolution but energy markets are warning of greater global risks. Bond markets continued to consolidate sideways and the risks remain for a sharp spike...

Last week, equities rallied strongly to new ATH's on hope for a resolution to the Iran conflict. The Straight of Hormuz remains closed and the risk of escalation remains - the pressure is on Trump to quickly resolve this conflict. The rally to new ATH's appears incomplete as we look for a final subdivision higher to help potentially complete an ending wave (v) of 5. Risks remain despite the rally in hopium - is it real or just another headfake? Bond markets continue to rebound correctively but...

Last week, equities extended higher as expected but the rally is only in 3 waves so far with hopes raised for a negotiated resolution to the Iran conflict. Bears need to immediately reverse last week's rally back through overlap support to help confirm a more bearish outlook in wave C or 3 down. Bulls need to hold overlap support and extend higher in 5 waves to help confirm a push through new ATH's. The structure of the Nasdaq decline is not clearly impulsive and may be warning of underlying...

Last week, equities rebounded from last line support before accelerating lower in a waterfall decline (as warned). "The longer this Iran conflict remains unresolved, the greater the risk of stagflationary headwinds of higher rates and energy prices." The break of support opens the door to much lower prices with the risk of an accelerated decline if we see a gap and go this week. Unfortunately, the structure of the decline remains unclear and is not clearly impulsive. We therefore need to stay...

Last week, equities continued to stair-step lower to break 200 day sma support as the Iran conflict escalated. The SPX and Nasdaq is now testing the last line of defence for the bulls (November lows). The risk is a continued waterfall decline on a break of support that accelerates to the downside. The longer this Iran conflict remains unresolved, the greater the risk of stagflationary headwinds of higher rates and energy prices. The bigger picture trend risks turning sharply bearish if support...

Last week, equities rebounded strongly from 200 day sma support but faded for the rest of the week as the Iran conflict escalated (Trump TACO and mixed messages). The major US equity indices remain above key support but risks are growing as the headwinds of higher rates and energy prices take hold. Bulls need to hold key support and extend higher this week or risk a waterfall decline that confirms a major top. Support is support until broken but warning signs abound - caveat emptor. The bond...

Last week, equity markets stair stepped lower as ES tested our 6720 support before rebounding correctively. Over the weekend, the Iran conflict escalated with Crude Oil surging higher prompting a gap down in the ES. Equity markets are now testing secondary support at the 200 day sma and November lows. As warned last week, the risk remains for a waterfall decline that gaps lower and breaks down - that risk remains while todays gap down holds. Bulls last stand so caveat emptor! Bond markets...