Last week, risk assets rallied across the board as traders absorbed high but receding inflation and a weakening global economy. The market is front-running the goldilocks recovery and elusive soft landing. Hopium remains firmly entrenched. We are looking for a bearish reversal early this week to maintain our bearish outlook. Equity Markets - decision time […]

Last week, equities traded sideways before a late week rally as risk markets digested the latest NFP report. The markets reacted positively to the data as the US$ declined while bonds and equities rallied (risk-on). This week will be important to see if there is any risk appetite to follow through. The near term bear […]

From our previous update, "The decline from last week’s highs appears impulsive but would look best with a small degree iv and v to complete an impulsive wave (a) or (i) down". Global equity indices show an impulsive 5 waves down from recent swing highs across the board to set up the next bear market […]

Last week, equities pushed to marginal new highs before reversing sharply lower for an outside-week bear reversal. "It is the reaction to the news that matters". The complication is that the near term SPX / ES rally up off the October lows can be counted as both bullish (impulsive) and bearish (corrective). At these times […]

Last week equities turned lower from our sell zone but the decline is not yet clearly impulsive. Bears need to see downside follow through this week and press lower to break near term support to help ensure an impulsive bearish reversal. Trade above last week's highs invalidates the bear case and opens the door to […]