Last week saw US equity bulls push markets to new cycle highs invalidating our near term bearish count. The question is whether this latest rally was the start of wave (iii) of 5 higher or wave B of a more complex wave 4 correction (Expanded Flat or Running Triangle). I am looking for early strength this […]

Late last week I posted an interim market update highlighting the key market risks right now. My base case is that last week's decline was only the first leg of a larger decline for wave (c) of 4. Ideally, the next week is a period of risk-off where we see equities decline while Bonds, PM's and […]

Given the increased volatility over the last few days and important moves in the US$, PM's and Bond markets, I wanted to update members on some potential near term scenarios... The US$ has now broken important long term support. We must now presume we are in a period of increased US$ volatility and a larger […]

We continue to see equities topping near term with risks to the downside while Bonds and the US$ are both at important inflection points. Crude Oil has now confirmed its turn higher while Palladium is threatening to make another marginal new high. This is a very important week for the Euro, Pound and Bond markets. […]

Our big picture global macro trends remain intact. Equity bull markets continue to make new cycle highs as expected while bonds are threatening to break down. Commodities fell hard last week as the one-sided reflation trade stalled with too many longs finally capitulating. There is a good reason why we focus on trader positioning as well as […]