by Kim | Mar 30, 2026
The key events for the w/c 30 March 2026 – US: non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, & retail sales, Global PMIs, Euro area CPI (prelim) Mar
Macro Recap: Gauging the Economic Impact
The conflict involving Iran is now entering its fifth week, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. While markets remain sensitive to headlines and the prospect of a sudden diplomatic resolution, recent developments suggest the risk of a more protracted timeline. Frequent claims of “progress” and “negotiations” have been met with Iranian rebukes. Reports of U.S. ground troop arrivals indicate a potential shift in the scope of the engagement. As this conflict moves from days into months, concern is growing over the potential for lasting economic damage.
S&P Prelim PMIs – March
Our attention now shifts to the incoming March data to begin the task of gauging the economic impact of this latest shock. The longer the crisis keeps the Strait closed, the greater the risk of a more pronounced and persistent effect on both prices and growth.
Last week’s prelim S&P PMIs for March provided an early look at this impact. Reflecting data collected between March 12 and 23, these reports capture the initial reactions of firms to the escalating conflict. Most regions noted more widespread input price pressures driven by higher energy costs, the building of safety stocks, lengthening lead times, and waning sentiment in the outlook.
Across the major economies, the PMIs revealed a divergence in resilience:
- UK & Eurozone: these markets are more exposed to the energy impacts of the conflict and have already shown signs of weakening output and rising prices. In the Eurozone, the slowdown was led by services, while the UK recorded slower output growth in both services and manufacturing sectors.
- Japan: the prelim PMI reflected a modest slowdown in the growth trajectory, but remained in expansionary territory. The Japanese government was already implementing a large-scale fiscal response to cost-of-living pressures (inflation) before this conflict, and has now moved to include gasoline subsidies to buffer the impact of further inflation pressure on households.
- Australia: There was a sharp turnaround in the Aus PMIs, led by a shift in services output from moderate expansion in Feb to a notable contraction in Mar. Part of this stronger reaction may be the result of the initial hike in interest rates at the start of Feb to reign in already persistent inflation. Now, there is the added pressure of the Middle East conflict and a follow-up rate hike at the Mar meeting.
- US: The prelim PMI showed output growth only edged slightly lower, with the expansion remaining modest for now. The pullback in demand for services was only partially offset by an expansion in manufacturing output as firms began to build safety stock amid the Middle East uncertainty. Input and output price increases became more widespread. Sentiment in the outlook was mixed; however, the composite employment index contracted slightly for the first time since Feb 2025.
Outlook for the week ahead: US: non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, & retail sales, Global PMIs, Euro area CPI (prelim) Mar
A heavier data calendar arrives this week as markets continue to navigate significant headline risks. The focus is twofold: tracking the resilience of the U.S. domestic backdrop and identifying the broader global impact of the Middle East conflict.
U.S. Domestic Resilience: Key updates will provide an updated view of the U.S. labor market and the domestic growth trajectory. This includes non-farm payrolls for Mar, retail sales for Feb, and the ISM manufacturing PMI for Mar.
Global Impact and Inflation Outlook: The second pillar of the week involves data points more directly exposed to the geopolitical shock. The Eurozone prelim CPI for Mar will be an important gauge of headline versus core inflation divergence. Additionally, the full suite of Global S&P PMIs will offer a more comprehensive look at initial impacts on supply chains and input costs across various regions.
Despite the shortened week due to the Easter holiday, U.S. non-farm payrolls will be released as scheduled on Friday, April 3.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
US Labor Market – March
Markets are expecting a rebound from last month’s weak labor market report; however, conditions are broadly expected to reflect that the ‘low dynamism’ mode is persisting.
- Non-farm payroll growth is expected to rebound to +56k in Mar (from -92k in Feb). The direction of revisions will also be important for any change in the trajectory of growth.
- The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.4% in Mar.
- Participation is expected to be little changed at 62%.
- Average weekly hours are expected to be unchanged at 34.3 hours.
- Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.4% over the month in Mar (unchanged from Feb), while the annual pace is expected to increase by +3.8%.
- The JOLTS report for Feb is expected to show job openings slow to 6.9m, down from 6.94m in Jan.
- The Challenger Job Cut Announcement survey for Mar may provide some further anecdotes on labor demand. Last month, job cut announcements fell to 48k.
US growth backdrop
The tracking for US GDP growth so far in Q1 has edged lower to 2% based on the latest update of the Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast.
- US retail sales are expected to increase by +0.4% in Feb, rebounding from -0.2% in Jan.
- The ISM manufacturing PMI for March may also start to reflect some initial impact from the Middle East conflict on US firms. The headline PMI is expected to be little changed at 52.3 in Mar. The ISM Services PMI for Mar will be released on 6 Apr.
FOMC speeches
- There will be several speeches throughout the week. Of note will be Fed Chair Powell in a “moderated discussion” at Harvard University. It’s unclear whether he’ll speak on the economic outlook at this event.
- NY Fed President Williams will also give keynote remarks on Monday on the economy.
Euro area CPI Prelim – March
This prelim release for the Euro area CPI will be one of the first official CPI reports for the initial month of the conflict; however, the final release in two weeks should provide a more complete view. While headline inflation is expected to increase on the back of higher energy costs, the trend of core inflation will remain most in focus for the ECB throughout this shock, to gauge whether higher energy prices are feeding into broader inflation.
- Euro area headline CPI – prelim Mar is expected to increase by +2.5% over the year in Mar, notably higher than the +1.9% inflation rate in Feb.
- Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at +2.4% in Mar (from +2.4% in Feb).
The full suite of S&P Global PMIs for March may show some early impacts from the Middle East conflict.
Other key releases this week:
- The RBA minutes of the last meeting (consecutive rate hike) will be released this week and should provide some insight into the debate over the decision to hike now versus hike later, resulting in the close 5-4 decision to hike in Mar and what that might mean for the near-term path of rates.
- UK GDP growth for Q4 is expected to remain subdued at +0.1% over the quarter, and +1% over the year.
- Tokyo CPI for March could provide an early view of inflation impacts in Japan, while accounting for key government subsidy offsets. Tokyo Core CPI ex fresh food is expected to be unchanged at +1.8% over the year.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $690bn in ST Bills, Notes, Bonds, and TIPS, raising approx. $37bn in new money. Approx $38.4bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Mar 23, 2026
The key events for the w/c 23 March 2026: Prelim S&P PMIs March, global CPI reports: Japan, Aus, and the UK
Macro Recap: The Central Bank Response
The conflict in the Middle East has now entered its fourth week, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. Markets are closely watching developments around the US ultimatum to reopen the Strait, with headline risk elevated in both directions.
Against this backdrop, last week’s central bank meetings provided important insight into how policymakers are assessing the risks of this evolving shock. While policy decisions diverged, a common theme emerged: central banks have shifted into a more conditional stance, balancing rising inflation risks from energy prices against uncertainty around the duration and impact of the conflict.
But as policymakers moved to manage expectations, global bond markets responded with a notable sell-off, pushing yields higher as investors began to price in the inflationary implications of a prolonged energy shock.
RBA: +25bps Hike
This was the second consecutive hike by the RBA, which signalled a pull-forward of its expected May hike. The primary driver of the decision was the further upside risk to inflation due to the energy price shock, occurring against a backdrop where inflation was already “too high”. The 5-4 decision in favour of a hike (versus hold) reflected a Board split on when to hike, not whether to hike.
“The Board concluded that the cash rate was not at a level consistent with returning inflation to target within a reasonable time frame.” RBA Governor Bullock
BoE: Hawkish Hold
The decision to stay on hold was unanimous. Before the onset of hostilities, markets had priced the possibility of a cut at this meeting. The decision to hold reflected a sharp pivot from the “continued disinflation” narrative to the expected inflation risk “caused” by this conflict. As a result, guidance shifted from “expecting more cuts” to “stand ready to act”. The key friction, however, stems from a growth and labour market backdrop that is far more subdued than during the energy price shock in 2022, a point noted by Governor Bailey.
“The recent experience of high inflation may also make households and businesses more sensitive to a new inflationary shock. At the same time, the starting point for this shock is a real economy with limited pricing power. Holding Bank Rate at this meeting is appropriate.” BoE Governor Bailey
BoJ: Hawkish Hold
The BoJ retained its guidance for hikes and policy normalisation. The decision to hold maintained the balance between achieving its inflation target through the “virtuous cycle” of wages and prices while the economy continues to recover. Governor Ueda expects that downward growth impacts from the conflict would likely be temporary; if so, rate hikes remain on the table. He also noted concern among Board members that inflation risks were skewed to the upside by energy prices. Furthermore, Takata’s dissent explicitly highlighted a key friction: upside risks to inflation against an inflation backdrop already largely at target with inflation expectations rising ‘moderately’.
“Even if economic growth were to decline, if that development is temporary and there’s not so much impact on the trajectory of the price trend then of course it will be possible to raise interest rates,” BoJ Governor Ueda
FOMC: Hold
A more neutral decision by the FOMC, albeit with hawkish undertones. The hold was based on the ongoing tension in the Fed’s dual mandate goals, where upside risks to inflation exist against the backdrop of downside risks to the labor market. While Chair Powell noted several times that it was “too soon” to establish the scope and duration of the conflict’s impact, committee members upgraded their growth and inflation outlooks. During the press conference, Chair Powell highlighted a lack of progress on core goods inflation. The FOMC maintained its easing bias, but trimmed expectations to a median of one cut this year.
“Not as much as we had hoped, but some progress on inflation. It should come as we start to see in the middle of the year, progress on tariffs going through once and then tariff inflation coming down. That’s — we should be seeing that. And the rate forecast is conditional on the performance of the economy. So if we don’t see that progress, then you won’t see a rate cut.” Fed Chair Powell
ECB: Hawkish Hold
The decision to stay on hold maintained its “Three Times Two” (2% Target, 2% Expectations, 2% Rates) baseline. However, risks have diverged, with forecast revisions for higher inflation and lower growth due to energy prices. Europe is at the forefront of this unfolding energy price shock, and uncertainty remains elevated. The ECB outlined two key scenarios for action and signalled greater agility and preparedness in the face of this latest shock.
“I think we are both well positioned and well equipped to deal with the development of a major shock that is unfolding, and we will continue doing that.” ECB President Lagarde
BoC: Dovish Hold
The decision to stay on hold primarily cited recent weaker activity and downside growth risks, while remaining alert to the inflationary risks from rising energy prices. The BoC has been lowering rates (now at the lower floor of ‘neutral’) to support the economy through structural trade and tariff adjustments; inflation slowed to +1.8% in Feb. While the Bank would look through the immediate impact on inflation, it remains committed to preventing those effects from broadening and becoming persistent. The BoC appears alert to a policy error – hiking into weakening economy in early 2026 – and shifted guidance, removing “the policy rate remains appropriate”.
“With inflation close to target and the economy in excess supply, the risk that higher energy prices quickly spread to the prices of other goods and serviceslooks contained.” BoC Governor Macklem
Outlook for the week ahead: Prelim S&P PMIs March, global CPI reports: Japan, Aus, and the UK.
The week ahead is relatively light on data, but the macro backdrop remains dominated by geopolitical developments and their implications for energy prices and inflation.
Geopolitical risks will remain elevated, as the start of the week remains within the US 48-hour ultimatum window for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Headline risks remain elevated in both directions.
Of most interest on the data front this week will be the S&P preliminary PMIs for key developed markets at the start of March. These releases may provide some of the first indications of how the conflict is beginning to impact business activity, pricing, and sentiment.
There will also be several important CPI reports for Japan, Aus, and the UK for Feb.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
S&P Prelim PMI’s for March
- While it may be too early for a broad view, the PMI reports may provide some of the first insights into business impacts as the conflict began. Specifically: prices, business outlook sentiment, and supply chain impacts.
FOMC speeches
There will be several Fed speeches this week. Of note will be Vice Chair Jefferson speaking on the Economic Outlook and Energy Effects on 26 Mar. Governor Barr will also speak on the Economy on the same day. Other scheduled speeches will be noted in the calendar.
Global CPI reports – Feb
- Japan: National Core CPI ex fresh food is expected to slow to +1.7% in Feb, from +2% in Jan.
- Australia: Headline CPI is expected to be unchanged at +3.8% in Feb.
- UK: Headline CPI is expected to be unchanged at +3% in Feb, while core CPI is also expected to be unchanged at +3.1% in Feb.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $518bn in ST Bills & FRNs, raising approx. $1bn in new money. Approx $14bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. The US Treasury will also auction the 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year Notes this week – to settle on 31 Mar/next week.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Mar 16, 2026
The key events for the w/c 16 March 2026: Central Bank meetings: RBA, BoC, FOMC, BoJ, SNB, BoE, and ECB; US PPI; Aus Labour market; Canada CPI
Macro Recap: The Threat of a Persistent Conflict
Geopolitical Risks
The conflict in the Middle East and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the primary drivers of sentiment. The drift back up in oil prices through the end of last week suggests “conflict duration risk” remains a primary concern. If the conflict becomes more entrenched (and the Strait remains closed), the structural threat to global energy distribution and production may become harder for markets to “look through.” The current uncertainty over the duration of this conflict presents a difficult trade-off for key central bank meetings this week: the longer the conflict lasts, the greater the risk that elevated energy prices un-anchor inflation expectations, squeeze real incomes, and weigh on global growth.
U.S. Macro: A Slower Starting Block
Last week, the US GDP revision for Q4 suggested that growth in 2025 ended on a softer-than-expected note. However, growth was expected to slow in Q4 (despite the much higher tracking of growth ahead of official results), due to the effects of the US government shutdown. The “second estimate” of US GDP growth in Q4 was revised notably lower from 1.4% to 0.7% annualized. While most areas of expenditure contributed to the growth downgrade in Q4, the largest contributions were from personal spending and net exports. Overall in Q4, the largest contributors to the slowdown in growth in Q4 versus Q3 were from slower personal consumption expenditure growth, a contraction in net exports, and the decline in government expenditure.
US Q1 Momentum and the Consumer
Looking ahead, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q1 2026 growth remains at a resilient +2.7%. However, momentum cooled following last week’s data releases. While a negative Feb labor report weighed on personal spending estimates, this was partially offset by constructive data in housing starts and existing home sales. Personal income growth strengthened in Jan, but growth in real spending remained low. This suggests that softer personal consumption growth has so far persisted into the current quarter, just as higher energy prices threaten a further squeeze on real incomes.
The Inflation Baseline
Importantly for the outlook, the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation data provided a mixed baseline. Headline inflation edged lower to +2.8% over the year, but core PCE ticked up to 3.1% in Jan. Both headline and core PCE inflation are higher than a year ago – reflecting a stickier inflation profile leading into a period of potentially higher energy prices. While the firming trend in core goods and core services inflation remains a concern, the median and the trimmed mean, to a lesser extent, suggest that underlying price pressures likely did not broaden out this month. The more current CPI report for Feb came in as expected, remaining lower at +2.4% for headline and +2.5% for core, and the upcoming PPI for Feb this week will help gauge the read-through to the Feb PCE result.
Outlook for the week ahead: Central Bank meetings: RBA, BoC, FOMC, BoJ, SNB, BoE, and ECB; US PPI; Aus Labour market; Canada CPI
The week ahead is defined by an unusual calendar alignment among central bank meetings, with at least seven key institutions scheduled to meet. These banks are facing elevated uncertainty over the duration of the current conflict and its subsequent impact on energy prices and inflation. Consequently, policymakers will need to reconcile these global pressures with their respective domestic policy nuances as they navigate yet another shock in this cycle of elevated uncertainty.
There will also be several key data releases, and markets are likely to remain firmly focused on the conflict and energy markets. Headline risks remain elevated in both directions.
Key factors & events to watch this week:
Central Bank Meetings
Most central banks are expected to stay on hold in a “wait-and-see” approach for now, due to uncertainty over the duration and scope of the conflict and its resulting impact on energy prices and inflation. Many markets were expecting policy easing through the remainder of the year; however, policymakers will be cognizant of the shift in market pricing for the path of ST rates – in some cases, shifting toward the prospect of hikes this year, as the risk of a prolonged conflict could see higher energy prices derail inflation progress. For most central banks, it will be too early to tell. However, signalling their commitment to inflation mandates may be an important part of central bank decisions this week to keep inflation expectations anchored amid the uncertainty. We will continue to track the signalling by central banks on the outlook and for shifts in guidance.
RBA
- Not all central banks are expected to stay on hold. The RBA will be first cab off the rank this week, and markets are expecting the chance of another hike (back-to-back), taking the cash rate from 3.85% to 4.1%.
- Inflation was (already) the immediate policy risk at its meeting in Feb leading the RBA to hike rates by 25bps.
- Guidance had been suspended at the last meeting in Feb due to the uncertainty over the persistence of domestic inflation pressures.
BoC
- The BoC is expected to stay on hold. The Bank is expected to remain cautious over inflation pressures as the economy adjusts through this period of ‘structural change’.
- Similarly, given the uncertainty facing the Canadian economy over the impacts from tariffs and especially the upcoming renegotiation of the USMCA, guidance had been suspended at the last meeting to provide the Bank with maximum optionality.
FOMC
- The FOMC is expected to stay on hold at this meeting. Market pricing for the path of rates has shifted notably in the last two weeks, now pricing in one cut through the next year.
- The FOMC faces a challenge over balancing its dual mandate – with PCE inflation remaining stickier, and concerns over the labor market rising after the Feb labor report.
- Fed communication will be in focus.
- Updated projections (SEP) will be released at this meeting, and the path of rates and the shift in the projections for growth, inflation, and unemployment will be important signalling.
- Changes to dissents will show how aligned members are – there were two last time.
- The press conference will enable Chair Powell to expand on how they are thinking about this latest shock, and he’ll have to walk a fine line about ‘looking through’ another inflation shock.
BoJ
- The BoJ is expected to stay on hold at this meeting.
- Bank communication will be important for the outlook for hikes – prior guidance was signalling an expectation for further hikes, and markets are still (potentially) expecting a hike in Apr.
BoE
- The BoE is now also expected to stay on hold, shifting from an expectation for a cut at this meeting.
- Recent data continues to reflect easing in growth and labour market conditions, while inflation, although still elevated, has continued to ease. At the last meeting, the BoE noted that “the risk of greater inflation persistence is now less pronounced”. At the same time, concerns emerged over slower inflation risks from weakening demand and a looser labour market.
- The decision to stay on hold, and any changes to the inflation outlook, will need to be reconciled with the prior guidance that “Bank Rate is likely to be reduced further”.
ECB
- The ECB is also expected to stay on hold at this meeting.
- Guidance is unlikely to be changed from the current ‘meeting by meeting’ approach – although the timeframe for the outlook is likely to be shortened, given the elevated uncertainty over energy prices, especially for Europe.
Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical risks are expected to remain elevated as markets grapple with the uncertain trajectory and scope of the conflict.
Global Data
- US: headline PPI for Feb is expected to slow to +0.3% over the month in Feb (from +0.5% in Jan), and increase to +3% over the year (from +2.8% in Jan). Core PPI is expected to slow to +0.3% over the month in Feb (from +0.8% in Jan), but also accelerate to +3.7% in Feb (from +3.6% in Jan).
- Canada: CPI for Feb is expected to firm over the month for headline inflation (+0.7% in Feb from 0% in Jan) and remain little changed at around +2.3% over the year. The median inflation rate is expected to continue easing to +2.4% in Feb from +2.5% in Jan.
- Australia: Labour Market Survey for Feb is expected to remain fairly stable with +20k employment growth in Feb (up from +17k in Jan) while the unemployment rate ticks slightly higher to 4.2% (from 4.1% in Jan).
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx $679bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds, raising approx. $96bn in new money. Approx $26bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. The US Treasury will also auction the 10-year TIPS and 20-year Bond this week – both to settle at the end of the month.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
