Macro review for w/c 11 June 2018 – One of our bigger themes last week was central bank meetings. The outcomes highlight how monetary policy is diverging among the major central banks –
US Fed median projections imply an additional rate increase this year from three to four – with an increase looking likely in the Sept and Dec meetings now.
ECB is holding rates for at least another year and ending QE by the end of the year. Changes to policy accommodations come with data dependant caveats.
BoJ made no changes to monetary policy and remains accommodative amid recent weaker GDP and CPI numbers.
Key US & UK data was positive;
US retail sales growth accelerated higher and core CPI growth was slightly higher in the month and in the year. Energy is playing a role in higher headline CPI growth.
UK – Retail sales (volume) growth was slightly lower in the month but remains elevated. The recent trend suggests retail growth has been increasing. Annual employment growth has been increasing – currently above recent averages. But the extremely high employment rate appears to be partly a function of slowing working-age population growth. Core CPI growth remained steady at 2.1% and has been slowing over the last nine months.
More detail is provided in the full overview – download it here (then hit the back button to return to the site):
Weekly Macro Review 11June2018
The focus for the upcoming w/c 18 June:-
Central bank signalling – heavy calendar of US Fed, ECB and BoJ speeches and events this week, possible discussion of policy decisions, also minutes released by RBA and BoJ
Central bank interest rate decisions – Bank of England, SNB
OPEC
Prelim PMI’s for June – US, Europe, Germany
US-China tariffs – fall out from the latest escalation
Download the full calendar for this week (hit the back button to return to the site):
Comments and feedback are welcome – please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
