The focus this week will be on the momentum of private sector growth for Jan, including US non-farm payroll growth, global PMI’s, and several central bank monetary policy decisions.
This week the BoE and RBA will meet on monetary policy.
The final global PMI’s for Jan will be released – providing a firmer view of the growth momentum coming into the start of 2021.
The main US data releases this week will be non-farm payrolls and employment for Jan and the ISM reports for the manufacturing and services sectors. We continue to follow the initial jobless claims as one of the higher frequency indicators of employment improvement. Last week, initial claims were slightly lower but total initial claims remained elevated at +1.3m claims by people.
In Australia, housing lending and retail sales (both for Dec) will be in focus. The Dec lending data indicated that the value of housing lending commitments reached a new record high value and increased by +8.6% versus Nov.
The US Fed purchases of Treasuries will be higher this week. The Fed plans to purchase $23.6bn in US Treasury securities this week (last week $10.7bn). The Fed will continue to purchase MBS at an elevated pace, this week buying $32.4bn in MBS ($36bn last week). The target for the monthly increase in Fed holdings of MBS is (at least) $40bn/mth.
US Treasury issuance will be heavier this week. The US Treasury will settle approx. $520bn in ST Bills, Notes, FRN’s, and Bonds this week, raising approx. $106bn in new money.
This week, approx. $19bn in Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be rolled over.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net.
