The Macro Outlook for w/c 19 May 2025
Key events this week – S&P Prelim PMIs May, RBA meeting, CPI: Japan, UK, Canada, and the Euro area
Recap from last week – Navigating the Economic Crosscurrents: Tariffs, Inflation, Growth, and Sentiment
We continue to navigate shifts in the economic landscape amid the crosscurrents of evolving trade policy. This past week offered a crucial snapshot of the US economy’s early Q2 growth and inflation performance under the nascent trade and tariff regime. The shifting tariff goalposts have created uncertainty for businesses, consumers, and policymakers. Meanwhile, the impact on and outlook for inflation remain uncertain, but initial hard data for US Q2 growth has largely shown resilience, yet is still challenged by pockets of weakness and downbeat sentiment.
The inflation picture at the start of Q2 continues to be shaped by concerns over above-target inflation, coupled with uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on inflation. Both Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Governor Kugler’s speeches built on the FOMC’s acknowledgment that risks to both sides of the dual mandate have increased. Both speeches underscored the concern that, given inflation remains above target, tariffs pose an upside risk to inflation. There is still uncertainty over the scope and level of tariffs, the degree to which they will be passed through, and importantly how persistent inflation from tariffs may be. Governor Kugler quoted a Dallas Fed survey that found that 55% of Texas business executives expect to pass through most or all of the costs from higher tariffs to customers. Of those, 64% expect this pass-through to occur within the first three months after the tariffs take effect. That would suggest that tariff-related price increases may be observed soon (Source: Gov Kugler speech).
The impact on prices will hinge on the path and settlement of tariff rates. In the interim, the announcement of a 90-day reprieve from the significantly higher US-China tariffs generated optimism this past week. Tariffs between the US and China will remain at a reduced level during this truce. With the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs nearing its midpoint, trade talks have been prioritized among some countries. However, adding to the evolving landscape, US President Trump announced that his administration would begin to set the reciprocal tariff rates for other countries “over the next two to three weeks” (source: Bloomberg).
With the more tangible impact of tariffs on inflation likely still on the horizon, the Apr US CPI offered a slightly cooler reading than expected over the month. The annual headline rate also eased by slightly more than anticipated. Core goods prices continued to make a positive contribution to the change in headline inflation between Apr and Mar, while core services made the largest contribution to the deceleration in annual inflation, along with food and energy categories. Measures of underlying inflation – indicating where inflation might be headed – show a mixed picture. The trimmed mean continues to show progress on disinflation; however, the trend indicates that the underlying pace of disinflation has been slowing. PPI inflation over the month surprised notably to the downside to -0.5% over the month and there was a larger upside revision to the monthly rate in Mar (revised up from -0.4% to 0% in Mar). PPI services were the main contributor to the downside surprise in Apr (portfolio mgt fees & airline fares fell). Together, the CPI and PPI provide a guide for the important PCE inflation result. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast of PCE inflation over the month in Apr (as of 16 May) shows headline PCE inflation growth of +0.19% and core +0.21% over the month. Core PCE would stay at +2.6% over the year.
The first view of important Q2 growth data showed signs of resilience. The Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast for US Q2 growth edged higher to +2.4% after data releases. This is still an early reading on growth for Q2 and will continue to evolve over the coming weeks. There was a positive contribution from retail sales and industrial production. US nominal retail sales growth slowed to +0.1% in Apr after a strong, upwardly revised +1.7% in Mar. While this reflects at least sustained spending after the strong Mar result, there is a risk that the pull-forward of demand (notably in autos) may reverse as demand normalizes in the near term, with tariff impacts as a key variable. Industrial production was flat in Apr after falling Mar – as declines in manufacturing and mining output were offset by growth in utilities output. The first US regional manufacturing surveys for May generally showed demand conditions had stabilized, with improvements in future output expectations (not including the response to the US-China tariff reduction reprieve), though input price pressures persisted. There was a small negative contribution to Q2 growth from housing starts, which came in a little lower than expected but increased slightly from the weaker result in Mar. New home builder sentiment fell notably in May.
US consumer sentiment indicators edged lower across most measures in the prelim report for May. However, the survey did capture some early reactions to the news of the 90-day reprieve/reduction on tariffs between the US and China – which seemed to be positive for sentiment. The final reading for May should reflect a broader reaction to the news.
Outlook for the week ahead; S&P Prelim PMIs May, RBA meeting, CPI: Japan, UK, Canada, and the Euro area
As the new trade and tariff regime continues to take hold, data releases will continue to offer an early glimpse into shifts in sentiment, economic performance, and inflation dynamics. While it will generally be a lighter data week, there will be several releases of interest, including the S&P prelim PMIs for May. Other highlights include US existing and new home sales and important inflation data for Japan, the UK, Canada, and the Euro area. The RBA meets and the ECB minutes will be released this week. The tariff backdrop should remain positive with hints of further trade agreement frameworks to be announced in the coming weeks.
Key factors & events to watch this week;
S&P Prelim PMI’s May
The S&P Prelim PMIs for May should provide one of the first reactions to last week’s announcement of the US-China reduced tariff reprieve. This reaction is likely to show up in the future output expectations and sentiment components. The May prelim report should also have a more robust business reaction to the reciprocal tariff pause (back on the 9 Apr). The Apr PMIs reflected a slowdown in growth momentum against a backdrop of the initial tariff and reciprocal tariff announcements, rising prices, and weakening sentiment. Therefore, this week’s PMI data will be crucial in determining if these trends persisted into May and if the various tariff reprieves resulted in a boost to activity and business outlook.
Central Banks
- The RBA meets this week and is expected to cut rates by 25bps for only the second time in this cycle. The last meeting was on 1 Apr, just before the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement amid a heightened sense of uncertainty in the outlook. In considering the path of rates, the Board needed confidence that inflation would continue to move in the right direction. The Q1 CPI helped to confirm the continued progress on disinflation with core CPI easing back to the upper target band, while last week’s labour market survey for Apr recorded strong employment growth and a continuing trend of low unemployment.
- The ECB Minutes of the last meeting will be released this week.
- US Fed speeches; there will be numerous speeches this week, several of which are scheduled Commencement or Baccalaureate speeches (Fed Chair Powell). See the Fed calendar for details – HERE.
Global inflation data – CPI for Apr
- Euro area CPI for Apr (final) is expected to confirm headline inflation at +2.2% over the year and core inflation at +2.7% over the year.
- Canada’s CPI for Apr is expected to slow to +1.6% over the year from +2.3% in Mar. Monthly inflation is expected to increase by +0.5% in Apr, up from +0.3% in Mar.
- UK headline CPI is expected to increase by +3.3% over the year in Apr, up from +2.6% in Mar. Core CPI is also expected to increase by +3.6% in Apr, up from +3.4% in Mar.
- Japan’s National CPI is also expected to increase. The BoJ-preferred core CPI – ex fresh food, is expected to increase by +3.5% in Apr, up from +3.2% in Mar.
US data – housing & regional manufacturing surveys
- US existing home sales are expected to increase to 4.15m (annualized) in Apr, up from 4.02m in Mar.
- New home sales are expected to remain lackluster, slowing to 0.696m (annualized) in Apr, from 0.724m in Mar.
- The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for May will be released this week.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and/or settle approx. $434bn in ST Bills, with a paydown of approx. $12bn. The US Treasury will also auction the 20-year Bond and 10-year TIPS this week – both will settle at the end of the month.
QT this week: Approx $14.1bn of ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
Next Monday is the US Memorial Day Holiday.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
The Macro Outlook for w/c 12 May 2025
Key events this week – US CPI, PPI, retail sales, output, housing, and US Fed speeches
Recap from last week: Central Bank Decisions Diverge on Tariff Uncertainty
Elevated tariff uncertainty and trade tensions remained a key theme among central bank decisions last week; however, their decisions diverged as each central bank navigated its specific exposure to global trade headwinds and domestic issues.
The FOMC kept rates unchanged as expected, and remained firmly in ‘wait and see’ mode. US Fed Chair Powell cited elevated uncertainty over tariffs, their effects, the broader policy landscape, and therefore the right policy response at this stage of the process.
There’s so much uncertainty about the scale, scope, timing, and persistence of the tariffs. Source: FOMC Press Conference 7 May 2025
The Fed Chair acknowledged the weakening domestic sentiment but emphasized the “still solid” hard data. But with inflation still above the 2% target, the Fed Chair ruled out the opportunity for pre-emptive rate cuts. The still-solid data continues to support the Fed staying on hold as it waits for “economic conditions to evolve”. There was a new statement in the decision though – an important acknowledgment that the Fed sees rising risks to both sides of its dual mandate;
The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen. Source: FOMC Statement 7 May 2025
The BoE cut rates by 25bps – a decision split 5-4, with two members preferring a 50bps cut and two members preferring to keep rates unchanged. The decision to cut reflected ongoing progress on disinflation, enabling the MPC to withdraw, gradually, its policy restraint. The minutes of the decision suggested that there was a pre-emptive element to this rate cut;
Although the current impact of the global trade news should not be overstated, the news was sufficient for those members to judge that a reduction in Bank Rate was warranted. Source: BoE Statement 8 May 2025
The PBoC announced a series of rate cuts and monetary easing measures to support domestic activity, as the Chinese economy bears the brunt of the trade war.
“This isn’t just a boost for liquidity and credit — the focus on tech, consumption, and elderly care signals a broader push to support structural drivers of the economy.” Source: Bloomberg
China’s overall trade data for Apr was surprisingly solid, with export growth remaining firm at +8.1% over the year. While exports from China to the US fell by -21% from a year ago due to higher tariffs (Source: Bloomberg), the report suggested that exports from China to other countries increased to offset that fall. Imports from the US also fell by -14%, while the broader decline in China’s import demand eased to -0.2% over the year. This is the first “hard data” confirming slowing trade between the US and China. The opening of negotiations between the US and China offers a glimmer of hope for a path to a reduction in the currently “unsustainable” level of tariffs on US-China trade. At the time of writing, the US and China agreed to a short reprieve with tariffs lowered for the next ninety days as talks continue. The US is to lower tariffs on China to 30% (from 145%) for 90 days and China is to lower tariffs on the US to 10% (from 125%) for 90 days (source: Bloomberg).
While central bank decisions showed diverging responses to the trade uncertainty, the ‘soft’ indicators continued to paint a picture of an emerging tariff drag. Last week, the global S&P PMIs for April reflected some weakening in global economic momentum. The latest Global S&P PMIs revealed a notable deceleration in global economic momentum in Apr, reaching a 17-month low but remaining in positive territory. Service sector growth eased sharply while manufacturing output growth remained sluggish. This more widespread slowdown in growth was evident in major economies like China, the euro area, and the UK. The deceleration was also pronounced in the US – led by a notable slowdown in the larger services sector. Growth in US services activity slowed to a more modest pace as firms noted that rising trade uncertainty impacted demand in both domestic and export markets. Future output sentiment continued to wane. Rising input prices due to tariffs were noted as the key reason for the increase in output/selling prices in Apr.
One other piece of hard data that continued to soften last week was Canada’s labour market in Apr. Employment growth remained subdued at +7.4k as labour force participation increased – this resulted in the unemployment rate moving back up 6.9% in Apr, from 6.7% in Mar. Employment declined across some of the more tariff-exposed industries; manufacturing -33k and wholesale/retail -27k. Statistics Canada notes though that the proportion of unemployed due to layoffs in Apr (0.7%), was little changed from a year ago (0.6%). Falls in employment were partly offset by an increase in temporary employment due to the federal election.
Outlook for the week ahead; US CPI, PPI, retail sales, production, housing, and US Fed speeches
This week, the focus shifts to important US hard data – retail sales, CPI & PPI, industrial production, and residential construction. These datapoints will provide a critical early read on Q2 growth momentum and potentially signal whether it’s beginning to align with recent softer survey trends. All of this unfolds against the backdrop of trade talk optimism and Fed commentary.
Key factors & events to watch this week;
US CPI and PPI inflation for April is expected to show monthly inflation firming. The detail will be important as to whether this begins to reflect any potential tariff impacts. The CPI & PPI will provide a leading guide for the Fed-preferred PCE inflation measure.
- Headline CPI is expected to be unchanged at +2.4% over the year in Apr, versus +2.4% in Mar. CPI is expected to increase by +0.3% over the month, up from -0.1% in Mar.
- Core CPI is expected to increase by +2.85% in Apr, up from +2.8% in Mar. Core CPI is expected to increase by +0.3% in Apr, also up from +0.1% in Mar.
- Headline PPI is expected to slow to +2.5% in Apr from +2.75% in Mar. Over the month, PPI is expected to increase by +0.2%, up from -0.4% in Mar.
- Core PPI is expected to slow to +3.1% in Apr, from +3.3% in Mar. Monthly core PPI is expected to increase by +0.3% in Apr, up from -0.1% in Mar.
US retail sales for Apr are expected to slow after the much stronger result in Mar.
- US retail sales are expected to increase by +0.1% in Apr, down from +1.5% in Mar.
- Last month, the retail control group increased by +0.4% – this is the measures that will feed into the GDP result.
US manufacturing and output
- US industrial production for Apr is expected to stabilize at +0.1% after falling by -0.3% in Mar. The manufacturing output figure will be important – in Mar, manufacturing output increased by +0.3%, down from +1% in Feb. The PMI indicators of manufacturing output in Apr suggest a more stalled pace of expansion.
- The first US regional manufacturing surveys for May will be released this week – the NY Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys. The May survey data will be interesting to gauge any leading shift in sentiment since the pause on reciprocal tariffs in early Apr.
US residential construction
- Building permits are expected to be little changed at around 1.45m (annualized) in Apr, from 1.467m in Mar.
- Housing starts are expected to increase slightly to 1.36m in Apr, from 1.32m in Mar.
Important US Fed speeches this week;
- US Fed Chair Powell will give a speech later in the week on the Framework Review – it’s not clear whether this will include specific commentary on the current outlook.
- US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Fed Governor Kugler will both give speeches on the economic outlook. Speeches on the ‘economic outlook’ are usually more instructive for the specific views of FOMC members.
- Fed Governor Waller will also give a speech this week on Central Bank Research – again it’s not clear whether this will include specific commentary on the economic outlook.
Outside of the US, data will focus broadly on GDP growth results for Q1 (QoQ); Euro area (second prelim) +0.4%, the UK +0.6%, and Japan -0.1%.
There will be a range of important Aus data in the lead-up to the RBA meeting next week (20 May).
- The Wage Price Index for Q1 is expected to remain little changed at +0.8% in Q1, after a +0.7% increase in Q4 2024. The annual rate is expected to remain around +3.2%.
- The Aus labour market survey is expected to show continued modest employment growth of +21k in Apr and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and/or settle approx. $632bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds, raising approx. $42bn in new money.
QT this week: Approx $67.8bn of ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested. Approx $3.1bn of Notes & Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be redeemed/roll-off the balance sheet.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
MCP Market Update: May 12th, 2025 – Inflection Zone
The Macro Outlook for w/c 5 May 2025
Key events this week – FOMC & BoE meetings, ISM & S&P Services PMIs
Recap from last week: The tariff reality begins to bite.
The reality of tariffs appears to be starting to ripple through the US and global economy. The breadth of this impact will depend, in part, on the outcome of tariff negotiations – and so far, there seems to have been little progress on this front. There was, however, talk of a willingness to open negotiations between the US and China last week – a potential first step towards further de-escalation. The broad tariff situation currently facing many US firms is a baseline 10% tariff on all imports from many countries since 5 Apr, tariffs on Chinese imports remaining at an elevated 145%, and uncertainty over multiple negotiations aimed at staving off the much higher reciprocal tariffs before the 8 Jul deadline.
As the trade landscape continues to evolve, the reality of tariffs is now starting to materialize for firms. We are still in that leading-edge stage, relying on forward indicators, survey data, and anecdotes to understand the impending impact. Last week, key manufacturing PMI surveys highlighted an important shift from negative sentiment about anticipated tariffs to concrete anecdotes of firms scrambling to manage the real-time impact on their businesses. The underlying indexes suggested that the impact of tariffs was becoming more widespread among US manufacturing firms. Other key global S&P manufacturing PMIs, including Canada, Mexico, the ASEAN group, Taiwan, and South Korea reflected tariff impacts in the form of deteriorating orders, output, purchasing activity, and falls in future output sentiment. The global S&P manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction. The services PMIs for Apr will be released this week and these will be crucial to help balance out the view of early-stage tariff impacts on the US and global economy.
A more real-time view of the tariff transmission into economic activity, particularly from slowing trade, comes from recent insightful interviews with the Executive Director for the Port of LA – linked here and here. These interviews highlight a unique perspective of how slowing trade is anticipated to begin affecting sectors of the economy in the near term. One of the important takeaways from the interviews is that progress on trade agreements will be crucial in the coming weeks.
The insights from the Port of LA underscore the ways tariff pressures are beginning to impact trade. The more significant, albeit lagging, “hard data” released last week, provides a broader perspective on these early-stage tariff impacts across the economy. To a degree, the anticipation of tariffs has already impacted the US Q1 GDP. US real GDP contracted as expected in Q1 by -0.3% (annualized), led by the fall in net exports and partially offset by inventories. Both are volatile series and reflect some front running of imports ahead of impending tariffs. Real final sales to domestic purchases (underlying domestic demand) slowed to +0.6% in Q1, from +0.7% in Q4.
Amid fears of tariff-driven inflation, US headline PCE inflation surprised to the downside in Mar. The Feb PCE inflation result, however, saw a moderate upward revision. Notably, monthly inflation slowed to zero in both the headline and core readings in Mar. Annual core PCE inflation decelerated to +2.6%, from an upwardly revised +3% in Feb. These slower monthly and annual inflation rates will likely be a positive sign for the FOMC as it meets this week, though it will likely view the March data as backward-looking and will be more focused on the Apr and May inflation figures to gauge any emerging tariff impact.
Finally, labor market data for Apr beat expectations and continued to suggest that US consumers remain on solid footing as tariff impacts loom. Payroll jobs increased by +177k in Apr, expecting + 129k. The two prior months were revised lower by -60k jobs, however, the 6mth average increased to +193k jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at a low of 4.2%. The growth in total hours remained positive and accelerated over the year. The JOLTS survey continued to reflect some vulnerability for the labor market, as labor demand indicators remained subdued. However, layoffs continued to decline. The Challenger Job Cut Announcement survey again pointed to elevated layoffs on the horizon. The leading reason for job cuts this month was “market/economic conditions” taking over from “DOGE” cuts last month. Given the lag effects, more industry-specific weakness may begin to be reflected in the May payrolls report.
The lagging hard data creates a challenging environment for policymakers and could complicate the policy response. How will the FOMC interpret the signals this week? In his last speech (16 Apr), US Fed Chair Powell preferred to keep options open regarding the path of policy rates. At the time, Powell maintained that the economy was “in a solid position” and that his focus was to ensure inflation expectations remained anchored in the face of price pressures from tariffs.
Based on the data last week, and at the time of writing, markets are now pricing in fewer rate cuts this year with the first cut now pushed out to the July meeting (source: CME Fedwatch).
Outlook for the week ahead; FOMC & BoE meetings, ISM & S&P Services PMIs, China Trade Data for Apr
This week, the focus shifts to central banks, notably the FOMC meeting. While it will be a somewhat quieter week for data, two important releases will help assess early-stage tariff impacts. First, the remaining global PMIs will provide a crucial view of service sector activity for Apr, balancing the manufacturing sector perspective on tariffs. Second, the Chinese trade data for Apr, scheduled for release this week, may begin to illustrate an impact on trade between the US and China.
Key factors & events to watch this week;
US FOMC meeting
- The FOMC is expected to keep policy settings unchanged. It will be important to see if there has been any shift in the Fed’s stance on its “wait-and-see” mode. Also important is how the FOMC will characterize the latest view of the economy and tariff impacts.
- There is a range of Fed speeches scheduled for the end of the week.
The BoE will also meet this week – and markets expect a 25bps rate cut at this meeting.
The US ISM services PMI for Apr will be an important counterpoint to the weaker manufacturing PMI last week. This is still survey data but will help to provide some insight into the momentum of the larger services sector of the US economy.
The global S&P services PMIs for Apr will also be released this week.
Canada’s labour market and employment for Apr will be released this week – and may also show some tariff effects. However, expectations are for employment growth to rebound by +24.5k after falling by -36.2k in the prior month. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 6.7%.
Finally, China’s trade data for Apr may provide some early insight into the trade impact of tariffs. The expected release date is 9 May but could be delayed.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and/or settle approx. $434bn in ST Bills, with a net paydown of -$11bn. The US Treasury will also auction the 3-year and 10-year Notes and the 30-year Bond this week – all will settle next week on 15 May.
QT this week: Approx $13.7bn of ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
