by Kim | Oct 28, 2019
The weekly macro review for w/c 21 October 2019 – The prelim PMI’s this week indicated that private sector activity was slightly weaker, or little changed at lower levels in Oct.
In the US,
the advance durable goods report provided more insight behind the weaker US
manufacturing activity in Sep and Oct.
Recap of recent
US manufacturing data; Sep ISM PMI fell further into contraction (across a
broader range of industries) while the Sep Markit PMI was mostly stable after
slowing markedly in Aug. Industrial production for manufacturing was weaker in
Sep – with the GM strike affecting auto production – but that was not the only
driver of the weaker durable goods result.
The Sep
advance durable goods orders reflected this weakness in autos but also
highlighted further weaker manufacturing results for non-defense aircraft. At
the total durable goods level, the monthly decline in new orders and
shipments, together with no change in order backlogs, made the inventory growth
a standout in both the month and on an annual basis. This was led by
non-defense aircraft and motor vehicles.
The US Oct prelim
PMI indicated some small rebound in growth for manufacturing. Manufacturing
recorded a small increase in the pace of growth, but growth remained moderate.
That said demand, output and employment increased at a faster pace. There was
also some improvement in the outlook. The services view of the PMI indicated
that activity was little changed, but the sub-indices indicated weakening
demand and declining employment.
The PMI’s
were little changed for Germany and across the Eurozone. The composite PMI for Germany indicated
continued contraction in manufacturing activity which offset the slightly
slower growth in services. Across both reports – demand was weaker and order
backlogs continued to decline. Sentiment shifted increasingly negative for the
outlook. The German PPI, excluding energy prices, continued to slow, indicating
that selling price growth remains under pressure. The recent peak in the PPI ex
energy was in early 2017 at around 3% – and this has slowed consistently to
+0.5% growth in producer selling prices as of Sep.
The broader
Eurozone PMI was little changed at the composite level, with the index slowing
to virtually no growth in Oct compared to Sep. While there was a slight
improvement in the headline services activity index, growth in demand and employment
slowed. Manufacturing broadly across the Eurozone remained in contraction, at
the same level as the month prior. There was a faster decline in new
manufacturing orders and employment declined – “with the steepest job
cuts since Jan 2013”.
The ECB
kept rates on hold. The outgoing President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, noted that
since the last meeting, data had confirmed that the euro area growth remains in
a period of protracted weakness. No further change was made to policy settings
with several of the measures announced last month yet to be implemented.
Outgoing President Draghi called on euro area countries to implement structural
changes and fiscal response where possible.
The
composite PMI for Japan slipped into contraction for the month. This was partly
due to the implementation of the consumption tax increase as well as the major typhoon
– but manufacturing firms cited weaker demand conditions generally. The manufacturing
outlook shifted from net positive to net negative. Services activity slowed to
zero growth.
The prelim Aus PMI indicated that growth of manufacturing and services activity slowed in Oct. Demand was weaker across both services and manufacturing with new manufacturing orders declining for the first time in the series history.
There are more data releases covered in last weeks review. Use the links on the contents page to navigate to different country sections. Download the review here;
The outlook for w/c 28 October 2019 – A big week of data, central bank interest rate decisions and the Brexit 31 Oct deadline.
Brexit – an
extension has been confirmed by the EU, but no date yet supplied. The UK will
likely go to another general election in early Dec and this will be confirmed
early in the week. The second Brexit deadline comes up this week on 31 Oct.
Several
central banks will meet this week regarding interest rates and monetary policy;
Interest
rate decisions will be announced by the Bank of Canada (Wed), the Bank of Japan
(Thu) and the US FOMC (Wed). As of 27 Oct, the probability of a further 25bps
rate cut in the US is now 93%. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html?utm_source=cmegroup&utm_medium=friendly&utm_campaign=fedwatch&redirect=/fedwatch
The major data
releases this week;
US –
Non-farm payrolls and employment, the prelim Q3 GDP, ISM and Markit
manufacturing PMI’s
Europe –
Eurozone prelim Q3 GDP and prelim CPI for Oct
Japan – The
prelim industrial production for Sep, retail sales for Sep (the month prior to the
increase in the consumption tax) and the final manufacturing PMI for Oct
Australia –
Q3 CPI, private sector credit and the manufacturing PMI’s for Oct
Finally, it will be a much heavier week for US Treasury supply. The US Treasury will settle $332bn in bills, notes, FRN’s and TIPS this week, raising approx. $59bn in new money. Approx. $15bn in reserve management purchases will settle this week and the Fed will purchase approx. $4.6bn in Treasury coupons as a part of the restarted reinvestment of principal payments. Approx. $15.6bn in securities in the Fed SOMA account will mature on 31 Oct – the full amount will be reinvested/rolled over.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Oct 21, 2019
The weekly macro review for w/c 14 October 2019 – Brexit was the main highlight during the week. The vote for the alternative backstop was defeated in the UK parliament until the legislation required to implement the bill is passed by the parliament. This situation will continue to unfold throughout next week. A decision on an extension will likely follow once that legislation has been passed/defeated.
There was little
further detail on regarding phase one of the US-China trade deal. With
the details yet to be put into writing and fully agreed to (we were here back
in May), the situation will likely remain tenuous. Even this week, China
continued to advocate that agriculture purchases would be made based on market
requirements rather than agreeing to a set purchase amount.
US data
this week was little changed. Manufacturing has been a weaker part of the US
economy and the industrial production report this week indicated that manufacturing
output declined in Sep – in line with weaker readings across PMI’s. The decline
in manufacturing was led by both durables (GM strike affecting auto production
in Sep) and non-durables led by lower output of petroleum products.
US retail
sales were weaker in Sep – the first monthly decline since Feb 2019. The annual
growth in retail sales has recovered to above 4% since the slowdown in late
2018. Consumer sentiment data has strengthened in the prelim Oct release, indicating
that sales likely remain solid in the near term.
Manufacturing has also been a weak for Europe and the industrial production release for Aug indicated that output growth remained subdued. Despite slight growth in the month in the Euro area, production remains below the levels from a year ago. The Eurozone headline CPI growth slowed further – led by lower growth in energy prices. Energy prices have affected most CPI reports this week. Core CPI growth increased slightly as services prices continued to grow at a faster pace.
Growth in the
BoJ preferred measure of CPI ex-fresh food continued to slow this month, down
to +0.3% and remaining well below the 2% target. Again, energy prices continue
to influence these CPI figures – ex fresh food & energy, CPI was slightly
higher at +0.5%. The introduction of the consumption tax will be incorporated
into the CPI data next month.
As the Brexit process continues to unfold, the UK labour market survey indicated worsening trends in employment and unemployment – the deterioration visible in the latest 3-month reading. Annual UK CPI growth was unchanged at 1.7% and retail sales growth steadied.
Trends in the
Australian labour market remained weaker. Employment growth slowed, while the
supply of labour increased (via participation growth) resulting in an increase
in the total number of unemployed persons. These developments will be closely
watched by the RBA as it looks to further easing to reduce this spare labour market
capacity (which it sees as a key drag on the CPI via lower wage growth
pressure). The RBA minutes on the labour market outlook were less encouraging;
It was also possible that participation was rising partly in response to weak growth in incomes. Moreover, employment growth was forecast to slow over the period ahead.
Data out of
China was mixed. Trade data deteriorated further with both exports and imports
declining. The fall in imports especially, reflecting further weaker domestic
demand and weaker demand for regional exporters into China.
Retail
sales indicated that consumer demand remained steady. Domestic retail sales
increased at a similar pace month on month with a small acceleration over the
year. Consumer price growth accelerated as meat prices, especially pork, have increased
markedly.
Industrial production lifted – led by faster growth in manufacturing and mining while output growth for utilities remained steady. Producer prices declined at a faster annual pace, suggesting weaker demand conditions persisted. The largest annual declines in producer prices continued to be driven by chemicals and petroleum.
There are more data releases covered in last weeks review. Use the links on the contents page to navigate to different country sections. Download the review here;
The outlook for w/c 21 October 2019 – There are several key events and data releases this week.
The process to complete Brexit continues this week. The legislation required to implement the alternative Brexit deal is expected to be introduced into the UK parliament early this week. If this legislation passes, then it is possible that the Brexit deal will be approved by the UK parliament.
The ECB meets this week and
it will be President Draghi’s final meeting as President.
Important data out this
week;
Prelim PMI’s for Oct
will be released across the US, Europe, Asia and Australia this week.
US durable goods orders,
regional manufacturing surveys, existing home sales and final consumer sentiment
readings for Oct will be released.
Japan merchandise trade.
It will be a lighter
week for US Fed speeches ahead of the FOMC meeting next week on 30 Oct. As of
21 Oct, the probability of a further rate cut next week is 89.3%. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html?utm_source=cmegroup&utm_medium=friendly&utm_campaign=fedwatch&redirect=/fedwatch
Finally, it will be a lighter week for US Treasury supply. The US Treasury will settle $182bn in Treasury bills raising approx. $25bn in new money. Approx. $22.6bn in reserve management purchases will settle this week.
More detail (including a calendar of key events) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Oct 14, 2019
The weekly macro review for w/c 7 October 2019 – Large announcements took center stage during the week.
A limited
trade deal (or at least a truce) between the US and China was announced this
week. This more limited agreement has little detail attached at this stage –
but it likely means that China will purchase more US agriculture and the US
will not go ahead with the increase in the tariff rate on imports from China from
15 Oct. It is expected that those details will be agreed to in time for the
APEC Summit 16-17 Nov.
By the end
of the week, there was a more positive tone on Brexit regarding an agreement on
an alternative to the Irish border backstop. This has since been downplayed by
both sides. With the important EU summit coming up, negotiations will again
come down to the wire. The Benn act of the UK Parliament requires the UK PM to
request an extension to the Brexit deadline (rather than ‘crash out’ with no
deal) if there is no agreement with the EU27 and House of Commons backing by
11pm Sat 19 Oct. The UK PM continues to talk about exiting the EU on 31 Oct
without a deal.
There was an announcement by the US Fed that it will commence purchasing ST Treasury Bills at a pace of $60bn per month in what it calls ‘reserve management purchases’. The US Fed Chairman had hinted at some intervention in his press conference at the last FOMC meeting, to ‘provide sufficient supply of reserves’ in the wake of liquidity issues in the repo market. The purchase of these ST T-bills will commence on 15 Oct and will continue into at least Q2 2020. This will be in addition to both the overnight repo operations of up to $75bn (daily) and term repo operations of up to $35bn (twice weekly) to ease funding pressures in the repo market.
Other
important releases this week were the FOMC and ECB minutes. The FOMC minutes included
detail regarding the funding issues in the repo market and the discussion on
the size of policy easing at the meeting. The decision to reduce the FFR by
25bps was not unanimous – and the minutes outline the arguments for a 25bps
cut, a 50bps cut and no cut to the FFR. All members agreed that downside risk
had increased since the last meeting.
“…a clearer picture of protracted weakness in investment spending, manufacturing production, and exports had emerged.”
JOLTS data out this week indicated some further slower momentum
in job hiring and openings. Although there was little to suggest any surge in
layoffs/discharges, the growth of quits has slowed notably. The first read of
consumer confidence for Oct showed a rebound in sentiment. The annual growth in
consumer prices was unchanged in Aug at 1.7% and core CPI growth remained much
higher on the back of shelter and medical services prices.
The ECB minutes outlined the discussion, agreement and
disagreement on the final suite of easing measures introduced at the last meeting.
While members all agreed that a further easing in policy was warranted, there
was some disagreement on the individual elements making up the package of
measures. The key data out this week was Germany orders and industrial
production for Aug (somewhat backward looking given the deterioration indicated
by the Sep PMI’s). Weakness in orders was led by the German domestic market. Industrial
production increased in the month, led by stronger growth in manufacturing and
mining, but remains well below the near-term peak and below a year ago.
Aussie housing lending data continued to strengthen – although growing at a slower pace than the month prior. Softer data indicated slightly more ‘steady’ results with business confidence and conditions picking up slightly. The AiG performance of industry reports indicated some lift in momentum for manufacturing, weak growth for services and continued contraction in construction. Across all three sectors, selling prices continued to decline indicating that demand remains an issue.
There are more data releases covered in last weeks review. Use the links on the contents page to navigate to different country sections. Download the review here;
The outlook for w/c 14 October 2019 – A range of data, news events and US Fed speeches this week.
The emphasis will shift onto the substance of this first phase of the US-China trade agreement as the details are put into writing for the APEC meeting mid-Nov. The next round of tariff increases on imports from China into the US (which were initially postponed) will not go into effect this week.
This is an important week for Brexit with the EC summit on
17-18 Oct. Negotiations will continue throughout the week in order to find some
agreement on an alternative to the Irish border backstop. Both sides have
stated that there is still a large distance to cover. The UK Parliament has an
extraordinary sitting of the House of Commons planned for Sat 19 Oct in order
to vote on any alternative that has been approved at the EC summit. If no
agreement is in place by 11pm on Sat 19 Oct, the UK PM is required to request a
further extension to the 31 Oct Brexit deadline.
The first of the tariffs on imports from the EU (related to
the WTO-Airbus case) will likely take effect on 18 Oct.
Important data out this week;
US retail sales, housing data and industrial production. There
is also a very heavy schedule of Fed speeches this week.
China data dump including trade, CPI, retail sales and
industrial production.
Eurozone industrial production and CPI.
UK retail sales, employment and CPI.
Australia employment survey.
Finally, it will be a very heavy week for US Treasury supply. The US Treasury will settle $255bn in Treasury bills and coupons raising approx. $69bn in new money (a relatively large amount). This will also be the first week of ‘reserve management purchase’ operations.
More detail (including a calendar of key events) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Oct 7, 2019
The weekly macro review for w/c 30 September 2019 – PMI’s out last week indicated that the global slowdown in activity continued into Sep. In many cases manufacturing activity contracted at a faster pace while there was also a notable slowdown in services activity in several countries/regions.
The US
Markit manufacturing PMI was slightly more positive, but the ISM manufacturing
PMI weakened, falling further into contraction and affecting a broader base of
industries. The services PMI was mostly stable after a larger fall in the month
prior and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI caught up this month indicating a
larger degree slowdown in services growth. Regional activity was mixed. There
was further deterioration in Chicago and NY business conditions while manufacturing
growth in the Dallas Fed survey was only slightly slower.
Growth in
non-farm payrolls slowed further and came in below consensus. This was partly
offset by positive revisions in the two months prior, so the twelve-month average
increased slightly.
From the
household survey, the key feature was the decline in the unemployment rate. This
occurred even though household employment growth had slowed in the month. The fall
in the unemployment rate was mostly the function of slower growth in the labour
force because there was no increase in labour force participation in the month.
Manufacturing
activity weakened further in the Eurozone led by a further deterioration in
German manufacturing conditions. Manufacturing in Germany recorded its worst
performance since the GFC. Services activity, while remaining positive, also
slowed markedly.
Across the
broader Eurozone, the composite PMI slowed to just 50.1 – indicating virtually
zero growth in private sector activity across the Eurozone. The EZ PPI growth
for Aug slowed to zero but was led by sharper declines in energy prices. Weakness
in producer prices is still evident for intermediate goods. Despite the
gloomier picture painted by the PMI’s, Euro area retail sales still rebounded
in Aug.
Manufacturing
conditions in Japan remained weaker with industrial production declining again
in Aug. The decline in the Sep PMI indicates that this is not likely to improve.
The services PMI also slowed. This week, the increase in consumption tax was
rolled out and this has been one of several issues weighing on business
confidence. One bright spot in the Japanese data was the stronger rebound in
retail sales for Aug after a sharper decline in Jul. It’s possible that retail
purchases may have been/are being bought forward ahead of the tax increase.
The UK
PMI’s painted a picture of an economy mired in Brexit uncertainty with
services, manufacturing and construction activity all contracting in Sep. There
appear to be little momentum behind preparations for the next Brexit deadline
of 31 Oct. The process and path of Brexit remains unclear. Details of the
negotiations on an alternative to the Irish border backstop indicate that a
wide gap remains between the UK and the EU. The key date remains the next EU
summit on the 17-18 Oct.
Finally, in Australia, the RBA lowered the cash rate again to 0.75% – mostly as a result of weaker employment data/stubbornly high spare labour market spare capacity leading to muted inflation pressure. There were several changes in the decision with a shift in focus from ‘lowering unemployment’ to a policy target of ‘full employment’. Total private sector outstanding credit continued to grow at a slower pace and building permits continued to decline. The number of permits on a moving annual total basis as of Aug was 26% below that of a year ago. Retail sales rebounded in Aug after a small decline in Jul as tax cuts, tax refunds and interest rate cuts start to kick in.
There are more data releases covered in last weeks review. Use the links on the contents page to navigate to different country sections. Download the review here;
The outlook for w/c 7 October 2019 – A somewhat quieter week on the data front – the main features this week will be FOMC and ECB minutes, Fed Chairman Powell speeches, the US-China trade meeting and Germany factory orders and industrial production.
The focus
in the US this week will be on the FOMC minutes and three (3) speeches by Chairman
Powell throughout the week. On the data front, the key highlights will be
prelim consumer confidence for Oct, PPI and CPI for Sep.
US-China trade
negotiations will be in focus with Vice Premier Lui He meeting USTR Lighthizer in
Washington this week 10-11 Oct.
ECB minutes
and Germany factory orders and industrial production (Aug) will be in focus for
Europe this week, especially after the much weaker PMI data for German manufacturing
last week. Trade and tariff headlines regarding the WTO ruling on Airbus and US
tariffs on EU imports may continue to feature this week.
We are now within ten days of the next key date of the EU Summit on 17/18 Oct. At this summit, the UK and EU would need to agree on an alternative to the current Irish border backstop. Negotiations are expected to continue this week.
In Australia, the important housing lending data will be out this week for Aug. Softer data will feature more this week with a final wrap up of the Aus Industry Group services, manufacturing and construction performance indexes for Sep and the NAB business conditions and confidence report for Sep.
Final wrap
up of Sep manufacturing and services PMI’s for China and new loans data.
US Treasury issuance will be lighter this week. The US Treasury will settle $200bn in ST bills this week raising approx. $7bn in new money (much lighter than prior weeks). The US Treasury will also auction 3yr and 10yr notes and the 30yr bond this week which will settle next week on 15 Oct. These auctions will raise approx. $54bn in new money.
More detail (including a calendar of key events) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Sep 30, 2019
The outlook for w/c 30 September 2019 – A full week of data, US Fed speeches and it’s also quarter end.
Important
US data out this week; non-farm payrolls and employment, ISM manufacturing and
non-manufacturing PMI’s for Sep and the final Markit PMI’s for Sep.
There is
also a full week of Fed speeches. The highlight will be on Friday with a ‘Fed
Listens’ event – “Fed Listens: Perspectives on Maximum Employment
and Price Stability”. US
Fed Chairman Powell will give the opening remarks at this event. Also speaking
will be Board members Brainard and Quarles.
Other speeches of note will be; Board Vice Chairman Clarida (Thursday) – outlook for the economy and monetary policy at the Wall Street Journal’s Future of Global Markets event in New York.
Across Europe, the final PMI’s for Sep will be released as well as Euro Area and German CPI and retail sales data.
The final
PMI’s for the UK in Sep and Q2 GDP will also be in focus this week. Brexit is
now coming into the *final* four week stretch. Further alternative plans for
the Irish border issue are expected to be tabled with the EU later this week.
The focus on Australia will be on the RBA rates decision on Tuesday. The expectations are for a further cut in the overnight cash rate to 0.75% (at 27 Sep 2019 a 78% expectation https://www.asx.com.au/prices/targetratetracker.htm). The probability for a further rate cut increased after the labour market data in mid-Sep indicated unemployment had moved higher. Later in the week, Aus retail sales data will also be released.
On trade, the WTO is expected to announce this week the findings of its arbitration on the amount of US tariffs related to the Airbus case.
US Treasury issuance will be heavier this week and its quarter end. The US Treasury will settle $297bn in ST bills, notes and TIPS this week, raising approx. $51bn in new money.
More detail (including a calendar of key events) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;
Several data releases from last week w/c 23 September will instead be included in the Weekly Macro Review for w/c 30 September 2019 (next week).
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
