Global risk assets continue to grind higher with no evidence of a tradable top. The ES / SPX appears to be completing 5 waves up from the March lows into marginal new ATH's. The bulls remain in control until we see evidence of a bearish reversal. The Russell 2000 / RTY and Nasdaq Indices are […]

The key macro themes driving risk markets higher are the weak US$, stable rates and goldilocks economy (not too hot, not too cold). Friday's NFP gave bulls an excuse to drive risk assets higher as the US$ fell and bonds rallied. The question is whether we stall out here or see follow through upside to […]

Last week, equity bears failed to make a stand as risk markets pressed higher. The Russell 2000 remains in the latter stages of a wave 4 bullish triangle / pennant. The Russell remains our clearest wave structure as the large caps continue to lag. The DXY attempted a bullish reversal from its wedge lows but […]

Last week US equities saw a hard test of structural trend support and held - the trend is your friend until it bends. It is important to note that the recent rally up off the lows appears corrective and is at risk of reversing early this week. All bullish market trends previously identified remain in […]

Last week saw a decline in risk assets as markets digested hot CPI and PPI numbers. The narrative proposed by central banks is that any inflation is likely transitory and therefore not sustainable. We do not agree - as highlighted in our 2021 year ahead report, we see a rising risk of stagflation given excess […]