Last week, equities continued to stair step lower but rallied strongly to end the week. Unfortunately, the decline has not done enough to confirm a bigger picture change in trend as the decline is not clearly impulsive. The US$ rebounded sharply as expected but is only 3 waves up of equality from the lows so […]

The Nasdaq indices led on the way up and now leads on the way down. The small cap Russell would still look best with a marginal new 5th wave high while the DJIA , SPX and NDX may have already topped for this cycle. The recent decline from ATH's is NOT clearly impulsive so we […]

Last week saw a continuation of the recent decline in US equities coupled with a decline in VIX and VVIX. We DO NOT have any inter-market correlations justifying this decline as volatility declined, global equities remain well bid and the US$ flat. We are paying close attention to the SPX / ES broadening formation rejection […]

Last week saw a pickup in risk asset volatility as the ES / SPX rejected its broadening formation resistance led by the sharp reversal in Nasdaq indices. We have been warning that parabolic advances often lead to violent reversals when herd momentum is NOT supported by fundamentals. We maintain that the 50 day sma is […]

Last week saw a continuation of the reflation trade spurred by Powell's Jackson Hole "lower for longer" speech. Equities rallied, the US$ weakened across the board, commodities rallied and rates rose. The US$ weakness is central to this risk-on trend while the SPX / ES accelerated through ATH's - importantly, last week's rally invalidated the […]