Global equity markets continue to grind higher despite deteriorating economic conditions and global virus outbreaks. The weaker US$ and excess liquidity is helping to support risk assets across the board. However, there is strong evidence to suggest that the recent trend in DXY, commodities and equities should be ending near term. We are alert to […]

The Fed-fuelled risk asset melt-up continues. Bears fumbled the ball last week as global equities continued to rotate higher following a corrective decline. We tweeted the corrective decline that led to Friday's push higher across the board. The SPX bear count is now at risk and what stands out since the June highs is the […]

Note: the CFTC data was delayed due to the Independence Day holiday. We will update when available. Last week, global equities rebounded sharply from support for what we expect to be wave c of (ii) / (b) retest of the June highs. Early this week, bears need to make a stand and defend major swing […]

Global equity markets remain in intermediate downtrends following the early June highs. Despite the negative news cycle, the primary equity indices remain above the June 15 lows and near term 50 day sma support. Our expectation remains that the initial decline was wave (i) / (a) of a larger decline as we look for another […]

Our base case remains that the early June highs marked an important swing high for risk assets. The impulsive decline from the highs is likely wave (a) / (i) of a larger decline - re remain bearish / defensive. Bonds remain bullish but could see an early week corrective decline. We have no confirmed top […]