Last week we got the downside confirmation we were looking for in global risk markets. We have long held that this latest rally was an ending wave C of (B) - a phoney. The market proved out our thesis and fell sharply back through breakout support. Our thesis of extended volatility compression leading to volatility […]

Last week saw another failure at marginal new highs as expected in what was likely to be a 5th wave completion. While the decline is not clearly impulsive, there are enough warning signs in place to mark at least an intermediate term top. What we don't know is whether this latest rally completed all of […]

Last week, global risk assets continued their liquidity fuelled rallies despite mounting pressures on the global economy. The US as the "best house in a bad street" analogy continues with capital seeking a safe haven in US assets. The US$, Treasuries and Equities all outperformed global peers as the equity market rally narrows. MAGA (MSFT, […]

The US remains the best house in a bad street as equity markets rebounded sharply to new ATH's. The sequence of higher highs and lows continues unabated for the major indices. Meanwhile, secondary indices such as the Transports and Russell 2000 remain below their respective 2018 highs (dow theory divergence). Global fundamentals continue to deteriorate […]

This week marks an important inflection point for the markets. Emerging Markets have been leading the indices lower since reversing at our key resistance zone. We have been warning for some time that this rally in risk assets was a potential "B" wave phoney / fake break out and risk insurance for failure was warranted. […]