Our bearish equity outlook remains in tact but markets need to break support to help confirm. Equities reversed lower from resistance while key risk indicators, the Yen and Swiss Franc rallied strongly. Bonds and PM's remain well bid while Dr Copper continues to break lower. The Yuan continues to weaken as the China trade wars […]

NB: I am travelling this week but will try to update clients as soon as practical. Apologies in advance for any delay in responses. COT data will be updated later this week. Last week equities reversed lower from 50 day sma and 61.8% Fib resistance but bulls continued to hold key 200 day sma support. […]

Last week, equities extended declines into our initial 200 day sma targets and then rebounded sharply. Bears have not yet been able to break the primary bull trend as the series of higher highs and lows remains unbroken. Bonds markets met upside targets as the near term trend may be exhausting. Alert to a bearish […]

Last week we had key weekly reversals in risk assets as expected. Equities reversed lower as did the US dollar after achieving our upside objectives. Our bullish bond outlook paid off as the flight to safety took hold. This risk-off turn was confirmed by bullish turns in the Swiss Franc and Yen. We expect this […]

This week is a critical juncture for risk assets. Markets "expecting" a 25bp cut and "hoping" for a 50bp cut as risk assets continue to grind higher. All eyes will be on the Fed to deliver on its dovish message with high risk of trend reversal:- Equities have met upside targets with deteriorating momentum and […]