Global equity markets rallied last week as bonds declined impulsively - with FOMC on deck this week, we should expect low conviction markets as the Fed likely describes its QE exit strategy. This will be an important week for the US$ as we search for a tradable low. Bonds declined sharply as we look for […]

The key market trends of a bullish equity market, bearish US$ and counter-trend rally in bonds are close to ending but we have no confirmation of a market reversal at this time. I am as flat as a pancake while I wait patiently for signs of a reversal. Patience and capital preservation is key for […]

Last week's equity rally confirmed a corrective decline which was either "part" of a larger correction or we immediately push to new ATH's to confirm a 5th wave extension. I still see no reason to embrace equity risk here given where we are in the bigger picture (I don't like chasing) and macro risk. Last […]

The global equity markets got the early week bounce we had been looking for off the prior 3 wave decline. I continue to believe that the initial decline was only "part" of a larger 4th wave structure. Our targets remain lower but given it is a 4th wave in the midst of a northern summer, […]

Key points: - Only 3 waves down of equality for most US indices (bears haven't proven anything yet) - IF wave (3) complete then wave (4) targets remain lower - Russell broke near term support and is approaching CRITICAL support - Bonds, Yen and PM's at critical junctures for the risk on/off trade - Euro […]