The Weekly Macro Review and Outlook for w/c 14 December 2020

The weekly macro review for w/c 7 December 2020 – The roll-out of Covid-19 vaccines is helping to improve sentiment. But while prospects for the future are improving, there remains a more immediate/impending issue of the economic impact from the current outbreak as well as the general pace of recovery.

In the US, consumer sentiment recorded a surprising improvement – driven by sentiment around the longer-term outlook. Current prospects for the economy and household finances were unchanged. There were still expectations that in the immediate term unemployment would increase and incomes would decline, given the severity of the current outbreak.

In the week after Thanksgiving, US initial claims increased sharply. This is the first week where a notable increase has been recorded, especially during this latest outbreak of infections. It is not clear whether this is a shift in trend. From the Oct JOLTS and Nov non-farm payrolls data, we know that there were also large layoffs of temporary Census workers.

The JOLTS data for Oct showed a continued improvement in the net employment change for the month, but the annual net employment change was still a -5.65m decline in employment. While this was an improvement from the -6.2m decline in employment in Sep, these results are significantly below the average growth of +2.1m in employment recorded through 2019. Hires are now ahead of a year ago and layoffs and discharges are 5% below a year ago. Quits remain an insightful gauge. The level of quits is still 10% below a year ago – indicating either a lower willingness or ability of workers to change jobs. Job openings are also still 9% below a year ago, so the availability of jobs likely remains an issue.  

The US CPI report was interesting this month. The pandemic has resulted in sharp shifts in spending patterns. Broadly, less air travel, less eating out, reduced discretionary spending, leaving densely populated areas (if possible), and more local/at home-based consumption. There are some small indications that severe price declines across categories such as apparel and airline fares are starting to reverse. This may be a small indication of returning demand, or at least, less deep discounting required.

The ECB announced additional support at the latest meeting. Rates remained unchanged, but pandemic-related QE was increased. The TLTRO III was also expanded for banks, and most of the other easing measures and emergency programs were extended indefinitely. It will be interesting to see the extent to which the US FOMC will respond this week to the current US situation.

There are more data releases covered in the review document. Use the links on the contents page to navigate to different country sections. Download the review here;

The macro outlook for w/c 14 December 2020 – Key highlights for the week will be central bank meetings and a heavy data week.

This week, the FOMC meets and rates are expected to remain on hold. The Fed will consider the current economic impact of the virus, and while data has not materially deteriorated during this wave of infections, the rebound across some sectors is still weak. The ECB last week adjusted some policy settings and the FOMC could do the same. The BoE meets this week and will also consider the current economic impact of the recent restrictions as well as the upcoming Brexit transition deadline. The BoJ will also meet at the end of the week.

Key data points this week include:

The prelim PMI’s for Dec across the US, Europe, Japan, UK, and Australia. This will provide some insight into the severity of recent virus outbreaks and restrictions on services sectors especially.

Industrial production data will be released across Japan (Oct), the Eurozone, the US, and China for Nov.

US – initial weekly jobless claims will be important after last week’s increase, retail sales for Nov, and building permits and housing starts for Oct.

Australia – the latest RBA minutes and the employment and labour market survey for Nov will be released this week.

The US Fed purchases of Treasuries and MBS will remain elevated this week. There will be a notable increase in the purchase of Treasury securities this week of $31.2bn (up from $$22.4bn last week). The purchase of MBS will slow slightly but remains well above the $40bn/month rate. The Fed will purchase $27.9bn in MBS this week, up from $32.1bn last week.

US Treasury issuance will be heavier this week. The US Treasury will settle approx. $403bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds this week, raising approx. $96bn in new money.

This week, approx. $17bn in Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be rolled over.

More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;

Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net

The Weekly Macro Review and Outlook for w/c 7 December 2020

The weekly macro review for w/c 30 November 2020 – Data out of the US this week reflected some slowdown of the recent growth momentum. There has been a more localized approach to managing the spread of Covid-19 infections rather than any Nationally mandated approach. Infections, and now deaths continue to rise across the US amid early production and roll-out of the vaccine.

Non-Farm payroll growth slowed notably in Nov. The composition of payroll growth reflected a shift away from ‘re-opening’ type service jobs like hospitality, food service, and retail. The increase in services jobs was instead led higher by couriers and messengers, warehousing and storage, and truck transportation. Manufacturing and construction payroll jobs accounted for most of the goods-producing payroll growth.

A weaker result for the labour market this month. The headline focus was on the fall in unemployment and the unemployment rate. Unfortunately, that occurred within the context of a decline in employment for the month (part-time workers) and a larger number of people leaving the labour force this month. 

The US ISM reports for Nov recorded slower growth. Manufacturing activity growth slowed slightly, with most indexes remaining stable. Employment shifted back into contraction – but more firms recorded no change to employment levels. Petroleum and coal industry output remained a drag on the ISM manufacturing report. Services growth slowed for the second month, but growth was still moderate overall. Most firms recorded no change across output, orders, and employment.

Across the industry reports, US firms noted some supply chain disruptions, due to Covid infections in some cases, for inputs, higher prices, and longer lead-times as a result.

US vehicle sales declined across both segments in Nov.

The Oct income and personal consumption report from last week recorded a decline in personal income as some government assistance programs started to wind-down. This offset positive, yet slower growth in employee compensation and income from capital. Excluding taxes, disposable income declined in Oct after increasing in Sep. As incomes fell in the month, consumption expenditure also slowed notably. This resulted in a fall in the saving rate (savings as a % of disposable income) – which remains extremely elevated.

The one consistent theme out of the major global PMI reports for Nov was the optimism toward the 12-month outlook given the announcement of the Covid-19 vaccine.

Across Europe and the UK, services sectors were again impacted by the reintroduction of restrictions.

The pace of manufacturing growth in Europe was constant – led by Germany. Excluding Germany, growth in Europe slowed to zero growth. The services sector was again hit hard by the reintroduction of social distancing restrictions and the services PMI contracted sharply.

Similarly in the UK, manufacturing activity was buoyed by stock build preparation for the end of the Brexit transition period at the end of Dec. Services shifted back into a sharp contraction.

In Japan, the headline manufacturing PMI reflected a continued, but a slight, contraction in manufacturing activity. Yet the industrial production data continues to report stronger growth in output and shipments. This discrepancy might reflect a fairly uneven rebound among firms. Services firms recorded a further contraction in business output in Nov.

Q3 GDP for Australia recorded a rebound in National output. Despite the high quarterly growth, the rebound has a way to go before output growth is back to the pre-shutdown trajectory. Real GDP remains -3.8% below the same quarter a year ago.

This quarter’s GDP rebound was led mostly by household consumption expenditure and a positive contribution from the change in inventories. Household expenditure has been well supported by enhanced government support, tax-free superannuation withdrawals, and rent/mortgage payment holidays. Government consumption expenditure also made a positive contribution to growth this quarter. Offsetting this growth was a substantial contraction in net exports.

The pre-existing trend of declining private gross fixed capital formation (investment spending) worsened further in the latest quarter. The decline in business investment offset some growth in dwelling construction and investment.

The RBA made no changes to the current interest rate and policy settings.

There are more data releases covered in the review document. Use the links on the contents page to navigate to different country sections. Download the review here;

The macro outlook for w/c 7 December 2020 – Key highlights for the week will be US data, the ECB rates decision, and Brexit negotiations ahead of the EC summit later in the week.

Key data points this week include:

US – CPI for Nov, initial unemployment claims, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment prelim release for Dec. It will be a quiet week for Fed speeches ahead of the FOMC meeting next week on 15-16 Dec.

Chinese trade data, CPI, and PPI for Nov will be released this week.

Europe – ECB rates decision likely to focus on the economic impact of further restrictions to manage Covid infections, German industrial production data for Oct.

As we come into the final weeks of the year, the end of the Brexit transition period will be in focus. The final date is 31 Dec 2020. Negotiations are yet to reach any compromise on a trade deal, but there is some chance for a deal to be presented at the EC summit by Thur/Fri of this week. The end of the transition period is likely to be disruptive for both regions regardless of whether a deal is agreed to or not by the end of the week.

The US Fed purchases of Treasuries and MBS will remain elevated this week. The Fed appears to be purchasing well above the $40bn/month rate of MBS. The US Fed will purchase approx. $22.4bn of Treasury securities this week, slightly above the $19.6bn purchased in the week prior. Purchases of MBS will total approx. $32.1bn this week, just slightly below the $35.2bn purchased in the week prior.

US Treasury issuance will be lighter this week. The US Treasury will settle approx. $285bn in ST Bills this week, with a net paydown of $3bn. Net cash raised this quarter so far, continues to lag behind the $617bn estimated cash required for Q4.

The US Treasury will also auction approx. $118bn in Notes and Bonds this week that will settle on the 15 Dec.

This week, approx. $14bn in Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be rolled over.

More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;

Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net

The Macro Outlook for the w/c 30 November 2020

Key highlights for the week will be important US data, global PMI’s for Nov, and US Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony on the CARES Act.

In the short-term, managing the spread of Covid-19 infections continues to impact economic activity. New cases remain extremely high in the UK, Europe, and the US (as well as many other countries). Longer-term, a vaccine now seems likely to be released around the middle of next year and fast-tracking is expected.

The prelim PMI’s from last week reflect the impact of different approaches to managing the spread of infections. There was a sharp contraction in output across the UK and Europe as both regions implemented restrictions. Whereas, the US prelim PMI’s indicated that growth accelerated across manufacturing and services in Nov – there has been no nationally mandated approach to managing the spread of the virus.

The stronger prelim PMI for US manufacturing was expected. Regional surveys had been strong for Nov. This week the ISM PMI’s will provide more detail across services and manufacturing for Nov. US non-farm payrolls and employment for Nov will also provide a vital gauge on the pace of the recovery. There has been some hint of stalled improvement in initial unemployment claims over the last two weeks, so this will be important to watch.

Key data points this week include:

US – Non-farm payrolls for Nov, initial unemployment claims, and the ISM PMI’s across manufacturing and services.

US Fed Chairman Powell will give two days of testimony on the CARES Act to the US Congress.

The final version of the global PMIs will be released this week and will likely reflect the marked contraction across the UK and European economies, the somewhat weaker growth in Japan, and the likely acceleration of growth in the US.

In Australia, the RBA will meet on rates on Tue 1 Dec. As of 30 Nov, there was a 43% expectation of no change to rates (source: https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-derivatives-market/futures-market/rba-rate-tracker). Aus Q3 GDP will also be released this week.

Data on US Fed purchases of Treasury securities and MBS are incomplete as of the time of posting. The new schedule will be released late on 30 Nov. Last week, purchases of US Treasuries totaled approx. $4bn. Purchases of MBS were elevated, and the Fed appears to be buying well above the $40bn/month rate. Last week’s purchases of MBS were approx. $20bn.   

US Treasury issuance will be heavier this week. The US Treasury will settle approx. $527bn in ST Bills, Notes, TIPS, and Bonds this week, raising approx. $140bn in new money. The bulk of the settlements will take place on Mon 30 Nov.

This week, approx. $27bn in Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be rolled over.

More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;

Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net

The Weekly Macro Review and Outlook for w/c 23 November 2020

The weekly macro review for w/c 16 November 2020 – Data from the US this week showed that the rebound in activity continued. A slight uptick in initial claims hinted at some possible impact from the growing level of state and regional restrictions. This will be something to watch in the coming weeks. Continuing claims remained elevated and the fall in regular state ongoing claims was mostly offset by an increase in the uptake of federal pandemic programs.

US retail sales growth slowed in Oct. The breadth of growth across categories was narrower this month. The monthly retail growth was led mostly by the increase in non-store retail sales. Year-to-date retail sales are now only -0.1% below the same period a year ago.

Manufacturing activity continued to recover. Industrial production in Oct increased at a faster pace led by faster growth in manufacturing output. Output and utilization remain below a year ago. The regional manufacturing surveys for Nov indicated that growth remained consistent.

Housing conditions were especially strong in Nov – reaching another new high for the conditions index. This was led by single-family sales (present conditions) and further improvement of conditions in the Midwest and the South. Existing home sales also continued to increase at a fast pace, albeit slower than in the prior month. All regions contributed to growth. Mortgage applications recorded an increase in purchase applications – for the second time out of the last eight weeks.

The rebound in Japan, especially for manufacturing and exports, continued. Industrial output in Sep increased for the fourth month in a row, despite the headline contraction in the manufacturing output PMI. Aiding this recovery has been the steady rebound in export growth over the last few months. Two points of caution from the prelim Nov PMI was the renewed contraction in new export work and the faster decline in output prices.

In Australia, the Reserve Bank minutes reiterated that reducing unemployment was a National priority amid concerns over subdued demand conditions. The full suite of exceptional monetary measures introduced in Nov, including QE for the first time, was aimed at providing further traction for the recovery alongside fiscal measures.

Previously, the RBA has acknowledged that inflation would not be likely to return to the 2-3% range until wage growth started to accelerate. This is not likely to happen until labour market slack is greatly reduced. In Q3, annual wage growth slowed to the slowest pace in the series (short) history. The labour market survey for Oct recorded faster growth in the number of employed persons – one of the stronger monthly rebounds in employment since the pandemic shutdowns. The important takeaway is that while employment increased notably, the supply of labour increased by a larger degree (participation had increased). This means that the total number of unemployed persons continued to increase on a monthly and annual basis.  For the moment, employment growth/labour demand is lagging behind the increase in the supply of labour. As domestic restrictions continue to be lifted, employment growth will need to accelerate further to reduce the extremely high level of unemployment and underemployment.

There are more data releases covered in the review document. Use the links on the contents page to navigate to different country sections. Download the review here;

The macro outlook for w/c 23 November 2020 – It will be a short week in the US with the National Thanksgiving Day holiday. Despite the short week, it will still be a heavy data week including the FOMC minutes, and the prelim PMI’s for Nov.

Key data points this week include:

Most of the US data will be released on Wednesday this week including weekly initial claims data, durable goods orders for Oct, the prelim Q3 GDP (2nd release), personal income, expenditures, and prices for Oct, Uni of Michigan consumer sentiment final for Nov, and the FOMC minutes.

US Fed Vice Chair Clarida will give a speech at the IMF Conference on New Policy Frameworks for a “lower for longer” world. The link is provided in the calendar.

The prelim PMI’s for Nov will be released this week. These will provide some insight into the impact on activity from the latest Covid restrictions in Europe and the UK especially. Services will likely remain weaker.

In Australia, construction work done and private sector CAPEX for Q3 will be released this week. Both reports are key inputs into the Q3 GDP release scheduled for the following week.

US Fed purchases of Treasury securities and MBS will be lower this week due to the shorter week. Last week, purchases of US Treasuries totaled approx. $34bn, and this week, purchases will be around $4bn. Purchases of MBS will remain elevated and the Fed appears to be buying well above the $40bn/month rate. Last week’s purchases were approx. $36bn and this week’s purchases are expected to total $20bn, even with the shorter week.  

US Treasury issuance will be somewhat lighter this week. The US Treasury will settle approx. $309bn in ST Bills and 2yr FRN’s this week, raising approx. $11bn in new money.

The US Treasury will also auction $169bn in 2, 5, and 7-year Notes this week that will settle on 30 Nov. Note that the settlement of 10yr TIPS, Notes, and Bonds on Monday 30 Nov will be heavy at $208bn – raising approx. $130bn in new money. This does not include the regular ST Bills for the week.

This week, approx. $15bn in Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be rolled over.

More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;

Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net

The Weekly Macro Review and Outlook for w/c 16 November 2020

The weekly macro review for w/c 9 November 2020 – Headline US consumer sentiment and expectations of future conditions both declined markedly at the start of Nov. This was the result of the election outcome and growing concern over the increase in Covid-19 infections. Current conditions remained little changed. The rebound in sentiment since Apr has been mixed and all three sentiment indexes are still more than 20% below a year ago.

A potential Covid-19 vaccine was announced at the start of the week with a possible roll-out date for mid-2021. The situation in the US and other major economies is concerning for the next few months. The number and growth of Covid-19 infections in the US are now more severe than in the two prior peaks this year. A National shutdown is unlikely, but affected states are implementing restrictions locally to manage the outbreak. This is happening against the backdrop of a federal political impasse – at least until Jan 20, 2021. The US Congress is yet to progress on any form of emergency funding or extensions to programs at this stage.

The US weekly initial claims still recorded over 1m new claims made by people for the week ending 7 Nov – across both state and federal programs. The continuing claims data highlights that while uptake of state-based programs is falling, people are moving over to the emergency federal programs. The net result is that total continuing claims for the wk ending 24 Oct was little changed at 21.1m people (down from 21.5m people in the prior week). Of this total, over 13m people are utilizing federal programs that are due to expire at the end of the year.

According to the global PMI’s in Sep and Oct, Germany remained the key to overall growth in EU manufacturing output. In Sep, German output increased after declining in Aug, but output remains well below a year ago. Across the broader Eurozone, industrial production was mostly flat for Sep. While output has improved it remains below a year ago. The tenuous recovery will likely be impacted by another severe wave of Covid-19 infections and subsequent restrictions.    

The Chinese Oct trade data for China showed that imports fell by -11% for the month – likely affecting some of the larger export markets. Imports from Germany fell by -15% in Oct (Germany is the third-largest import market for China), after increasing by 16.8% in Sep. Imports from the broader EU region were down by -11.4% in Oct. The Chinese import data also highlighted some weaknesses for Japanese exporters in the short-term.

There are more data releases covered in the review document. Use the links on the contents page to navigate to different country sections. Download the review here;

The macro outlook for w/c 16 November 2020 – Data will be in focus this week ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday next week. The G20 summit will be held later this week (virtually) and discussion will focus on Covid-19 response and management.

Key data points this week include:

US – housing market data (conditions for Nov, existing home sales, and permits) will be released this week. Mortgage purchase applications have been falling for six out of the last seven weeks, so there may be some stalling of recent improvements. US retail sales for Oct will be released this week. Several regional manufacturing surveys will provide the first view of US manufacturing activity for Nov. We will be looking for any impact on factory activity from rising infection rates, especially export orders.

China Oct data will continue to be released this week – including industrial production and retail trade.

Japan – merchandise trade data for Oct will be released and there will likely be some impact from the notable decline in Chinese imports for the month. The prelim manufacturing PMI for Nov will be released, and we will be looking for a possible impact on activity due to the renewed COVID-19 outbreak among key trading partners.

Australia – the RBA minutes will be released this week, providing some insight into deliberations behind the launch of QE. The important employment and labour market survey for Oct will be released this week.

US Fed purchases of Treasury securities and MBS will be significantly higher this week ahead of the shorter Thanksgiving week next week. Last week, purchases totaled approx. $17bn, and this week, purchases will be around $34bn. The schedule for Thanksgiving week has approx. $4bn in purchases of US Treasuries.

Purchases of MBS remain elevated and the Fed appears to be buying well above the $40bn/month rate. Last week’s purchases were approx. $20bn and this week’s purchases are expected to total $36bn. The schedule for Thanksgiving week has approx. $20bn in purchases of MBS. This is all in-line with continued declines in mortgage rates.

US Treasury issuance will be heavier this week. The US Treasury will settle approx. $407bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds this week, raising approx. $48bn in new money.

The US Treasury will also auction $39bn in 10yr TIPS and 20yr Bonds this week that will settle on 30 Nov.

This week, approx. $20bn in Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be rolled over.

More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;

Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net

The Weekly Macro Review and Outlook for w/c 9 November 2020

The weekly macro review for w/c 2 November 2020 – US data this week continued to indicate improvement in the economy. Jobs growth improved – but there is still a long way before there is a full recovery of the jobs lost in Mar and Apr. The non-farm payrolls continue to rebound – and have now recovered just over 50% of the jobs lost in Mar and Apr. Unemployment continued to fall – aided by a slower recovery in labour market participation. Initial jobless claims continue to slow. Some of the slowdown in state-based programs is being offset by increases in federal support programs.

The US congress will return next week in a lame duck session. There is some evidence that Governors may begin to implement measures to reduce the spread of Covid in their states – especially where cases are placing pressure on hospital capacity. President-elect Biden will announce a task force this week – it is unclear how much impact he can have prior to taking office though. The holiday season will place pressure on infection rates, which are already well above 100k a day now. Any restrictions implemented during this period may not be supported by another round of fiscal support, although there remains some positive signs for some agreement on stimulus support during the lame duck session – and there is still a very high level of cash in the Government Treasury General Account. The FOMC left policy unchanged this month – further support for the economy in the face of restrictions, may be a priority for the FOMC over the next few months.

US business activity continued to rebound, but is uneven. Manufacturing recorded stronger growth in Oct, in line with the improved regional reports. The Sep factory orders continue to show weakness in airline and petroleum industries. Motor vehicle orders and shipments are now back above that of a year ago. Other industries continued to rebound. Services growth was consistent this month, but there was no acceleration in activity after the stronger result in Sep. There was some caution regarding hiring.

Activity in Europe and the UK is about to be impacted by further social restrictions to curb the spread of Covid. Eurozone manufacturing was stronger in Oct due mostly to activity in Germany. Services output across the Eurozone fell back into contraction – the first sign of weakness re-emerging.

In the UK there was a notable slowdown in services growth, while manufacturing growth remained consistent. The BoE stepped up asset purchases by an additional £150bn. The BoE remains cautious about the uncertainty of the Brexit trade deal as well as the impact of the reimposition of social restrictions.

Australia is now coming out on the other side of restrictions. The PMI’s noted large improvements in business sentiment as case counts decline, as trading and travel restrictions are lifted, and as state border restrictions begin to lift. The PMI’s indicated moderate improvement in activity, especially in services. But both manufacturing and services reports noted declines in employment. The RBA used this opportunity to “gain more traction” with monetary stimulus by easing further this month. A large suite of easing measures was introduced this week, including QE, and the reduction of the OCR down to +0.1%.

Aus mortgage finance data confirmed that housing remains well supported. Retail sales are recovering with a strong Q3 result (in real terms) – even the weakness in Vic was offset by stronger growth in other states. But the retail sectors contributing to the growth are generally not discretionary in nature. Food grocery has been strong. Household Goods was also strong – led by some shift to work-from-home requirements. Retail sales have been boosted by the strong fiscal and monetary stimulus, rent and mortgage payment moratoriums, early tax-free access to retirement savings, and improvements in employment. Some of the fiscal measures have started to unwind now.

There are more data releases covered in the review document. Use the links on the contents page to navigate to different country sections. Download the review here;

The macro outlook for w/c 9 November 2020 – A relatively quiet week ahead. The US presidential election results will continue to be finalized and it will be a relatively light data week. The most pressing issue will be what action will be taken by the US to curb the sharp increase in Covid infections.

It is Veterans Day in the US on Wed 11 Nov.

Key data points this week include:

US – the prelim consumer sentiment for Nov to date, CPI and PPI for Oct.

China Oct data will continue to be released this week – including trade (last weekend), CPI and PPI data.

Australia consumer confidence data for Nov will be an important indicator for spending leading into the end of the year.

US Fed purchases of Treasury securities will be lighter this week due to the Veterans Day holiday.  Last week, purchases were around $20.6bn and this week, purchases will be slightly lower at $16.625bn. Purchases of MBS remain elevated. Last week purchases totaled $32bn and this week purchases are expected to total $19.6bn. The target for MBS purchases is around $40bn a month.

US Treasury issuance will be lighter this week and with a net paydown.  The US Treasury will settle approx. $285bn in ST Bills this week, with a net paydown of -$18bn.

The US Treasury will also auction $122bn in Notes and Bonds this week which will settle next week.

The US Treasury released the estimated funding requirements for Q4 just prior to the election. The estimated net new money raised for Q4 was reduced from $1.2tr to $617bn for the quarter. The Q1 2021 estimate was also released and the net new money raised was estimated at $1.12tr – indicating that stimulus was not likely until the new year.

This week, approx. $16bn in Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be rolled over.

More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the file here;

Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net