by Kim | Sep 4, 2023
Key events this week – RBA & BoC policy meetings, US ISM Services, Global services PMIs
Recap from last week
It was an important week of US data inputs helping to assess the path of the US labor market, growth, and inflation ahead of the next FOMC meeting this month. Data revisions played a prominent role in tempering the recent enthusiasm around resilient growth and a persistently tight labor market.
Payroll growth came in higher than expected for Aug at +187k despite the bankruptcy in transport and warehousing and several strikes. However notable revisions in the prior months suggest that payroll growth has not been as strong as previously thought. The 6-month average payroll growth is now down to +194k.
Several points indicate that labor market tightness may be easing. The participation rate increased more notably in Aug after several months unchanged but is still below the pre-pandemic peak of 63.3%. This led to a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.8% (also still historically low). Average hourly earnings growth continued to slow – now down to +4.3% over the year and +0.2% for the month. The JOLTS report for Jul, with revisions for May and Jun, suggested an accelerated slowdown in hiring, openings, and quits over the last two months. Hiring and openings are now mostly back in line with pre-pandemic levels. Layoffs & discharges remained low.
US growth indicators remained positive. Overall average weekly hours increased to 34.4 hours – led by goods-producing industries (mining & construction). The ISM manufacturing survey showed some improvement in manufacturing conditions, though still lacklustre. Anecdotes focused on weak orders growth; a function of unwinding inventories and backlogs, improving supply, and weaker demand.
US GDP growth for Q2 was revised lower to +2.1% from +2.4%. That was driven by fixed investment, change in inventories, and net exports making a smaller contribution to growth. Personal consumption growth was revised slightly higher. Still, the first view of Q3 PCE growth in Jul was stronger, increasing by +0.6% in real terms with both goods and services contributing to consumption growth. The updated Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast for Q3 shows growth easing after the data from last week, but staying very high at +5.6% annualized.
Finally, there was little change in PCE inflation with both headline and core just slightly higher in Jul (due to base effects). Monthly inflation remained at a low +0.2% pace. So far, the headline and core measures of PCE inflation are within the range of FOMC projections provided at the Jun meeting. Headline PCE inflation in Jul of +3.3% is just above the median projection of +3.2%. Core PCE inflation in Jul was +4.2%, just above the median projection of +3.9%.
Outlook for the week ahead
US data this week will focus on services activity surveys for Aug, factory orders for Jul, and non-farm productivity data for Q2.
The final global PMI’s for services will be released this week helping to round out the view of global private sector momentum in Aug. The PMIs released so far indicate that the slowdown in global manufacturing activity has eased in Aug.
This week, the RBA and BoC will meet on monetary policy. The RBA is expected to keep policy rates unchanged. The monthly inflation data for Jul continued to ease, but core inflation measures are still high and persistent. There had been some easing in labor market conditions in Jul with the unemployment rate increasing to 3.7%, despite a fall in participation. Governor Lowe will give a speech this week titled “Some Closing Remarks”. This will be his final meeting before the new RBA Governor, Michele Bullock takes over in mid-Sep. Aus GDP for Q2 will be released after the RBA board meeting and growth is expected to be +0.3%, up slightly from +0.2% in Q1.
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 5%. GDP growth in Q2 stalled (fell slightly on an annualized basis by -0.2%) after expecting annualized growth of +1.2%. Readings of core CPI continued to slow in Jul. The unemployment rate in Jul increased for the third month in a row as employment growth stalled and participation declined. The latest Aug labor market report will be released later in the week. Employment growth is expected to rebound by +18.7k and the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 5.5%.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $433bn in ST Bills raising approx. $70bn in new money.
QT this week: Approx $6bnbn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week and will be reinvested. Approx $6bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week and will be redeemed/roll-off the balance sheet.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Aug 28, 2023
Key events this week – US non-farm payrolls, PCE Price Inflation, Euro Area CPI
Recap from last week
“As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.”
An obscure closing reference to the Jackson Hole symposium theme of structural shifts in the global economy contributing to the complexity of navigating policy in a post-pandemic world. For the most part though, US Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole reiterated the key messages from recent meetings while striking a cautious tone on the path forward. Inflation has come down from its peak, but still has “substantial further ground to cover”. Chair Powell emphasized again the risk management approach, noting uncertainties around the possible outcomes. Potential lagged effects of policy tightening may still be felt – complicating the task of balancing over-tightening and under-tightening. The FOMC will proceed carefully but is prepared to increase rates further if appropriate, and at least maintain policy at a restrictive level.
Questions remain over how restrictive current policy is given that US growth has remained resilient, and the unemployment rate remains at a low 3.5%. Chair Powell did note that additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth or evidence that labor market tightness was no longer easing could call for a monetary response. Since the Jackson Hole speech, markets have started to price the possibility of another hike in Nov.
US data last week was still mixed. The prelim US S&P PMIs for Aug indicated that private sector momentum continued to slow. Persistent manufacturing weakness was offset by positive, yet slowing services sector momentum. But the overall employment situation remained unchanged and sentiment in the outlook improved somewhat. US mortgage applications continued to show the effects of renewed mortgage rate increases as applications (leading) fell to the lowest level since 1995. Existing home sales in Jul missed expectations and are now only just above the Jan 2023 low. But new home sales increased more than expected in Jul. Initial claims continued to move lower after a recent spike higher. Durable goods orders fell as expected, reflecting the large-scale aircraft orders booked in the prior month. The Atlanta Fed GDPNowcast ticked up to +5.9% for Q3 (still limited data) as the change in inventories helped to offset the weakness in residential investment.
The prelim Aug PMIs for the G4 (including Aus) showed overall momentum slowing. Manufacturing activity was weaker in all markets this month, with output indexes below 50. Services momentum stalled with shifts to outright declines in Germany, France, the UK, and Aus. Services remained in expansion in Japan (accelerating) and in the US. Despite the weakening conditions, employment growth was mostly unchanged from the prior month – except for falls in Europe & UK manufacturing sectors. There were signs of renewed input cost inflation this month.
Outlook for the week ahead
This week will be important for assessing the path of the US labor market, inflation, and growth ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
US non-farm payroll growth is expected to slow further to +170k in Aug (from +187k in Jul). The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 3.5%. Job openings for Jul are expected to show a slight increase to 9.8m (up from 9.5m in Jun). Average weekly hours are expected to stay unchanged at 34.3. This will be the second of the two labor market reports before the next FOMC meeting.
US PCE inflation data will be released earlier than usual this week (Thur rather than Fri). Headline PCE inflation is expected to increase to +3.3% from +3% (base effects). The monthly pace is expected to stay at +0.2%. Core PCE inflation is expected to increase to +4.2% from +4.1% in Jul.
US personal spending in Jul is expected to be a robust +0.6% in Jul, up from +0.5% in Jun.
The second estimate of US Q2 GDP will be released and is expected to stay at +2.4%.
The US ISM manufacturing PMI for Aug is expected to stay in mild contraction.
The Euro area prelim CPI for Aug will be released, and headline inflation is expected to ease from +5.3% to +5.1% in Aug. Core CPI is expected to ease from +5.5% in Jul to +5.3% in Aug.
The broader release of the Aug PMIs will commence with global manufacturing activity later in the week.
Finally, the Aus monthly CPI series is expected to show a further slowdown in inflation to +5.2% in Jul (from +5.4% in Jun).
Next week is a short week in the US with the Labor Day Holiday on 4 Sep.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $542bn in ST Bills, Notes, Bonds, and TIPS raising approx. $111bn in new money.
QT this week: Approx $28bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week and will be reinvested. Approx $17.4bn in Notes and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week and will be redeemed/roll-off the balance sheet.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Aug 21, 2023
Key events this week – US Federal Reserve Annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Prelim PMIs Aug
Recap from last week
The FOMC minutes continued to emphasize that inflation is unacceptably high, and that policy will need to stay sufficiently restrictive. The minutes suggest that the FOMC may want to see growth slow (reflecting a better balance between aggregate supply and demand), and inflation ease, to feel confident that inflation is on a sustainable path to 2%;
Participants stressed that the Committee would need to see more data on inflation and further signs that aggregate demand and aggregate supply were moving into better balance to be confident that inflation pressures were abating and that inflation was on course to return to 2 percent over time. – FOMC Minutes
The shift to data-dependent guidance emphasized assessing the totality of the incoming data and the implications for the economic and inflation outlook. Policy tightening was seen as nearing its ‘destination’ and data in the inter-meeting period would determine the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate. The outlook also shifted as staff no longer judged that the economy would enter a mild recession by the end of the year. The minutes noted that risks to achieving the FOMC policy goals have become more two-sided, and the Committee would need to balance the risk of inadvertent overtightening with the cost of insufficient tightening.
Last week, US data on consumer spending, housing, and production suggested an even higher growth trajectory at the start of Q3. Retail sales growth for Jul came in stronger than expected at +0.8% with the prior month also revised higher. New housing permits and starts remained stable despite the higher rates environment. But homebuilder sentiment began to fall as mortgage rates increased to over 7%. Indicators of manufacturing and output were somewhat improved in Jul and several Aug surveys showed stabilization amid recent falls. Initial claims remained low. So far, the latest Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast shows a notable acceleration in growth at the start of Q3.
Outlook for the week ahead
In the context of stronger US data and rising US long rates, the signaling from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole will be important this week. The Fed is in data-dependent mode and there is still another round of inflation and payrolls data before the next meeting. This year’s symposium is on “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy” and US Fed Chair Powell is expected to speak on Friday morning.
The prelim Aug PMIs for key G4 markets will be released this week. These will provide some early insight into private sector growth momentum for Aug. Manufacturing in Jul showed ongoing weakness in the Euro Area while improving somewhat in the US. Services growth has broadly stayed positive while momentum has slowed over recent months.
Other US data this week will feed into the growth picture. Durable goods orders for Jul are expected to fall by -4% after much higher growth of +4.6% in Jun (led by large aircraft orders). Initial claims are expected to remain low at +244k. Existing home sales are expected to be little changed at 4.15m (SAAR).
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $415bn in ST Bills and FRN’s raising approx. $94bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 20-Year Bond and 30-Year TIPS this week – both will settle next week.
QT this week: Approx $13bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week and will be reinvested.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Aug 14, 2023
Key events this week – FOMC minutes, RBA minutes, and RBNZ policy meeting, US growth indicators; retail sales, housing construction, and industrial production, global CPIs; UK, Canada, Euro Area (final), and Japan
Recap from last week
Last week we continued to fill in more of the evolving picture of US growth, inflation, and labor market conditions leading up to the next FOMC meeting. US inflation in Jul (CPI) continued to ease amid tight labor market conditions, easing labor demand, and resilient growth. So far, the overall picture points to the likelihood of another pause at the Sep FOMC meeting.
Headline US CPI did accelerate slightly to +3.3% from +3.1% in Jun, but near-term measures show the inflation trend is easing. There was a further deceleration in core CPI – which provides a better signal of the overall direction of inflation. Core CPI increased by +4.7% in Jul versus +4.9% in Jun. Core goods inflation slowed to +0.9% over the year, as new and used car and truck prices declined. Core services prices continued to grow at +6.1%. The trimmed mean inflation slowed to +4.8% in Jul from +5% in Jun and the monthly change in trimmed mean inflation remains lower, around +0.2% (the avg of the last three months). This was overall a good inflation report for the Fed – the second in a row. Measures of core inflation are still elevated over the year, but slowing over the more recent periods. So far, continuing to go in the right direction.
Fed speak has been quiet over the last few weeks. Last week, NY Fed President Williams was signaling that maintaining a restrictive stance will be important, but if inflation is coming down, then it will be “natural to bring nominal interest rates down next year consistent with that, to keep the stance of monetary policy appropriate for an economy that’s growing, and for inflation moving to the 2 percent level.” This was in line with Fed Chair Powell’s last press conference comments – “if we see inflation coming down credibly, sustainably, then we don’t need to be at a restrictive level anymore, we can you know, we can move back to a neutral level and then below a neutral level at a certain point”. Both sets of comments note general caution around ensuring that inflation is coming down sustainably before a change in policy stance.
Data from China continued to disappoint. Weaker export and import growth reflected weaker global demand for goods and weaker domestic demand in China. Headline inflation declined by -0.3% over the year, while core inflation accelerated from +0.4% in Jun to +0.8% in Jul as the monthly core inflation rate increased to +0.5% – the fastest of the last twelve months. New loans in China were also a notable miss in the month – reflecting weaker domestic demand. Further data this week on retail sales, production, and investment.
Outlook for the week ahead
This week, we get US growth indicators on spending, housing construction, and production. US retail sales for Jul are expected to increase by +0.4% over the month, up from +0.2% in Jun. Housing data this week includes permits (expected to increase to 1.46m SAAR) and housing starts (expected to increase to 1.44m). Industrial production is expected to increase by +0.3% after falling by -0.5% in Jun. We will continue to watch initial claims, which came in slightly higher than expected last week at +248k. All of these data points should feed into a solid update of the Atlanta Fed GDPNowcast for US Q3 growth.
The FOMC minutes will be released this week. The FOMC hiked rates by 25bps at the last meeting. Minutes may reflect discussion around the inflation outlook and the need for data-dependent guidance. Fed speak looks to be minimal again this week, ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium next week (24-26 Aug).
The RBA minutes will be released. The Board kept the cash rate on hold at 4.1% at this meeting. Previous minutes have revealed that decisions have been ‘finely balanced’, so it will be interesting to see how the rate hike debate has shifted. The Aus labor market survey for Jul will be released and net employment growth is expected to slow to +21k while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.5%. The wage price index is expected to increase by +1% in Q2 from +0.8% in Q1. The increase in the minimum wage award came into effect from 1 Jul – strictly speaking in Q3.
The RBNZ is expected to keep policy rates on hold this week.
Finally, global inflation readings will be in focus throughout the week. Canada’s CPI is expected to increase by +2.7% in Jul (from +2.8%) with the trimmed mean slowing to +3.4%. UK CPI is also expected to slow to +6.8% in Jul from +7.9% in Jun, with core CPI staying around +6.8%. The final Euro area CPI for Jul is expected to confirm headline inflation at +5.3% and core inflation at +5.5%. Euro area services inflation had accelerated in the prelim release to +5.6% (and by +1.4% in the month). Finally, the Japanese National CPI is expected to slow to +2.5% in Jul with core CPI ex-fresh food slowing to +3.1%.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $482bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds raising approx. $82bn in new money.
Aug QT: Approx $54bn in ST Bills, Notes, and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week and will be reinvested.
Approx $42.6bn in Notes and Bonds will mature on the Fed balance sheet and will be redeemed/roll off the balance sheet.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Aug 7, 2023
Key events this week – US CPI
Recap from last week
Over the next two months, the ‘totality’ of US growth, inflation, and labor market data will be central in determining the next policy steps for the FOMC. The focus last week was on the US labor market and growth momentum going into Q3. The Jul data continued to reflect a slowdown in hiring while the labor market remained tight/resilient. This labor market theme has also been evident across other developed markets.
US non-farm payrolls growth came in as expected around +187k, but the prior two months were revised lower by approx. -50k in total. At the same time, labor market conditions remained tight. From the household survey, the number of employed persons continued to increase (an increase in part-time employment more than offset the fall in full-time employment) while participation was unchanged. This resulted in another fall in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. The avg hourly earnings growth remained at +0.4% over the month and at a still elevated +4.4% over the year – consistent with tighter conditions. The US JOLTS data for Jun also reflected the underlying theme; demand for labor continued to ease as the rate of hiring and openings fell, but layoffs and discharges also declined.
The US services and manufacturing PMIs for Jul reflected the somewhat slower pace of hiring from the non-farm payrolls report. US manufacturing activity, which has remained lacklustre for many months, at best didn’t deteriorate further in Jul, but stayed in mild contraction. Services activity continued to expand modestly, but the pace of growth slowed. Services firms reported more widespread increases in prices this month.
Central bank decisions last week remained cautious on the inflation outlook, noting tight labor markets, and opting for data-dependent guidance. The RBA kept rates on hold to allow more time to assess the impact of the rate increases to date. Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required, and will depend upon the data and “the evolving assessment of risks”. The ‘evolving assessment of risks’ was an addition to the statement this month. The RBA continued to note that inflation was too high, and that services-led inflation remained persistent.
The BoE increased rates by a further 25bps as expected. Inflation risks remained skewed to the upside. The Committee noted that if “there were to be evidence of more persistent [inflation] pressures, then further tightening of policy would be required”.
Global PMIs for Jul continued to reflect slower growth momentum. Services activity growth remained moderate but slowed again. Global manufacturing activity continued to contract and at a slightly faster pace in Jul. This was led by further falls in output and orders, especially in the Eurozone and China. It’s worth noting that the global future output index for manufacturing continued to show reasonably widespread and improving sentiment in the outlook.
Outlook for the week ahead
US CPI for Jul will be the key data release this week. This will be the first of two inflation reports before the next FOMC meeting and will feed into the broader picture of economic activity for the FOMC. US Fed Chair Powell noted that while the Jun CPI reading was good and welcomed, it was only one reading and not a definitive view that inflation is on a ‘sustainable path’ back to the 2% target.
This week, US headline CPI for Jul is expected to accelerate slightly, due to base effects, to +3.3% from +3.1% in Jun. Inflation is expected to increase by +0.2% over the month versus +0.2% in Jun. Core CPI is expected to stay elevated at +4.7% in Jul, down slightly from +4.8% in Jun. Core inflation is also expected to increase by +0.2% over the month versus +0.2% in Jun.
We will continue to watch initial US jobless claims, which had shifted lower recently. This week, claims are expected to increase slightly to +230k from +227k last week.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $398bn in ST Bills raising approx. $53bn in new money. The US Treasury will also auction the 3-year and 10-year Notes and the 30-year Bond this week – these will settle next week.
Aug QT: Approx $18.2bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week and will be reinvested.
Also gaining much attention last week was the notably higher US borrowing requirements for Q3 and Q4. Details of the changes to the US Treasury net borrowing requirement for Q3 and Q4 are outlined in the briefing note attached.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
by Kim | Jul 31, 2023
Key events this week – BoE & RBA monetary policy meetings, US non-farm payrolls, US ISM surveys, Euro area CPI prelim for Jul, global PMIs for Jul
Recap from last week
Both the FOMC and ECB hiked rates last week but provided limited forward guidance. Despite recent improvements in inflation, neither central bank is claiming a victory over inflation, and both emphasized a data-dependent approach to future decisions.
The FOMC raised the FFR by 25bps to 5.25-5.5%. US GDP growth was stronger than expected for Q2 at +2.4%, unemployment remains low, and inflation appears to be moving in the right direction. Chair Powell noted that the Jun CPI was “a bit better than expected” but remained cautious that inflation is on a sustainable path to 2% and that the “process of getting inflation down to 2% has a long way to go”. The Sep meeting may or may not be “live”, depending on the inter-meeting data which includes two payroll and two inflation reports. On this, Chair Powell noted that the assessment for another hike in Sep would be based on the “totality of the data” specifically, growth, labor market conditions, and inflation.
On the growth front last week, US durable goods orders for Jun surprised strongly to the upside led by higher non-defense aircraft orders. This was somewhat supported by the flash US PMIs at the start of the week hinting at stabilizing manufacturing activity. Services growth was moderate but still slowed. The Jul flash PMI commentary was surprisingly downbeat with ‘gloomier business confidence’ noted.
US inflation for Jun was lower than expected as the PCE price index confirmed the improvement in the Jun CPI. While there are some base-year effects, the more recent annualized views confirm that near-term inflation continues to ease. Core inflation readings remain higher/still elevated – and this will stay a focus for the FOMC. The Employment Cost Index also came in slightly lower than expected at +1% for Q2, with the annual rate slowing, but remaining elevated at +4.5%.
The ECB hiked policy rates by another 25bps reflecting the current assessment of the inflation outlook. Inflation has started to ease over recent months, but the Governing Council noted that underlying inflation remains high. This was balanced against a deteriorating outlook for Euro area growth. The ECB bank lending survey noted tighter lending conditions and weaker demand for credit across sectors. Looking forward, the flash Euro area PMIs for Jul indicated a further deterioration in manufacturing activity as service sector momentum continued to ease.
The BoJ announced its intention to ‘flexibly’ manage the 10yr JGB trading band. The +/- 0.5% is now a reference rate, and the yield cap has been moved to +1%. The BoJ continued to signal that the achievement of its 2% inflation target “has not yet come in sight”. While fiscal 2023 inflation forecasts were increased, the BoJ revised its core forecast inflation slightly lower for 2024.
Outlook for the week ahead
Over the next two months, the ‘totality’ of US growth, inflation, and labor market data will be central in determining the next policy steps for the FOMC. The focus this week will be on the US labor market and growth momentum going into Q3. The first of the two important payroll reports for the US will be released this week. Non-farm payroll growth is expected to ease further to +184k in Jul (from +209k last month). At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to stay at a low of 3.6%. The JOLTS report will for Jun will provide a broader context for the balance between labor supply and demand, with job openings expected to fall further to 9.6m The US ISM surveys will provide a view of manufacturing and services growth momentum going into Q3. Finally, the US Federal Reserve senior loan officer opinion survey for the latest quarter will be released. Chair Powell has already hinted at further tightening in lending conditions and weaker loan demand.
The RBA will meet this week. Market pricing for another hike moved much lower last week but some forecasters expect another hike. Quarterly headline inflation came in lower than expected but still elevated at +6%. Underlying inflation remained elevated at +5.9% and services inflation accelerated slightly to +6.3%. In a speech in Jul, Governor Lowe noted many cross-currents affecting the inflation outlook, and the Board is expected to provide an assessment of the inflation risks. Retail sales in Jun fell notably by -0.8%. The effect of higher rates on household consumption has been an important barometer for the RBA.
The BoE will meet this week and is expected to hike rates by a further 25bps.
Inflation and growth data for the Euro area will be in focus this week. The prelim Euro area CPI for Jul is expected to slow to +5.3% over the year and to +0.3% over the month. Core inflation is also expected to slow slightly to +5.4%. The flash Euro area GDP growth for Q2 is expected to increase by +0.2%, up from -0.1% in Q1.
Finally, the full suite of global PMIs for Jul will be released this week. Back in Jun, the growth momentum across manufacturing and services had started to slow. The flash Jul PMIs for the G4 plus Aus showed a continued slowdown in the pace of services growth. There was a slight improvement in manufacturing activity, despite all five headline manufacturing PMIs remaining in contraction territory.
This week, the US Treasury will auction and settle approx. $522bn in ST Bills, Notes, FRNs, TIPS, and Bonds raising approx. $41bn in new money.
Aug QT: Approx $17.5bn in ST Bills will mature on the Fed balance sheet this week and will be reinvested. Approx $31.4bn in Notes, Bonds, and FRNs will mature and roll off the Fed balance sheet (on 31 Jul).
US Treasury financing estimates for Q3 will be released this week.
More detail (including a calendar of key data releases) is provided in the briefing document – download the pdf below:
Comments and feedback are welcome. Please email me at kim.mofardin@marscapitalpartners.net
