Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)
The Macro Outlook for w/c 5 May 2025
Key events this week – FOMC & BoE meetings, ISM & S&P Services PMIs Recap from last week: The tariff reality begins to bite. The reality of tariffs appears to be starting to ripple through the US and global economy. The breadth of this impact will depend,...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 28 April 2025
Key events this week – US Q1 GDP, Non-farm payrolls, PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing PMI, Eurozone & Aus CPI, BoJ Meeting Recap from last week: Global PMIs Soften as Tariff Risks Loom. There were several unifying themes emerging from the various surveys and data...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 21 April 2025
Key events this week – S&P prelim PMIs for April, US Durable Goods Orders, Fed Beige Book Recap from last week: Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Central Bankers. Uncertainty surrounding US tariffs looms large over global monetary policy. Speeches last week showed...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 14 April 2025
Key events this week – US retail sales, US Fed Chair Powell speech, BoC & ECB decisions, and global inflation data Recap from last week: Uncertainty Continues to Cloud the Economic Horizon. Negative market reaction to the US tariff shock of April 2nd continued to...
The Macro Outlook w/c 7 April 2025
Key events this week – US reciprocal tariffs, US CPI & PPI, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ monetary policy meeting Recap from last week: The US tariff shock. The unexpected scale and breadth of the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement sent shockwaves through markets, with...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 31 March 2025
Key events this week – US tariff announcement, US non-farm payrolls & ISM surveys, Fed Chair Powell speech, RBA meeting, global S&P PMI’s Mar Recap from last week: US inflationary pressures persist amid slowing growth US data last week reflected a tension...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 24 March 2025
Key events this week – US PCE inflation, Prelim PMIs March Recap from last week: Central banks adopt a cautious approach amid an uncertain outlook. Central bank decisions last week underscored a cautious approach to the near-term policy outlook amid rising uncertainty...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 17 March 2025
Recap from last week: While CPI eases, tariff policy continues to sour the growth and inflation outlook. The Feb US CPI report showed further progress on disinflation, with both headline and core CPI slowing more than expected. Headline inflation eased to +2.8% in...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 10 March 2025
Key events this week – US CPI and PPI Feb, Bank of Canada meeting Recap from last week: Data remains solid, but rising uncertainty clouds the outlook. While U.S. data remained solid last week, rising uncertainty, fueled by erratic tariff news and spending cuts, is...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 3 March 2025
Key events this week – US labor market for Feb, Fed speeches, ISM surveys, ECB meeting, China NPC, and tariff announcements Recap from last week: Progress on inflation and the evolving US economic outlook. As we approach the next FOMC meeting on 18-19 Mar, the US...
