Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)
The Macro Outlook for w/c 31 March 2025
Key events this week – US tariff announcement, US non-farm payrolls & ISM surveys, Fed Chair Powell speech, RBA meeting, global S&P PMI’s Mar Recap from last week: US inflationary pressures persist amid slowing growth US data last week reflected a tension...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 24 March 2025
Key events this week – US PCE inflation, Prelim PMIs March Recap from last week: Central banks adopt a cautious approach amid an uncertain outlook. Central bank decisions last week underscored a cautious approach to the near-term policy outlook amid rising uncertainty...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 17 March 2025
Recap from last week: While CPI eases, tariff policy continues to sour the growth and inflation outlook. The Feb US CPI report showed further progress on disinflation, with both headline and core CPI slowing more than expected. Headline inflation eased to +2.8% in...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 10 March 2025
Key events this week – US CPI and PPI Feb, Bank of Canada meeting Recap from last week: Data remains solid, but rising uncertainty clouds the outlook. While U.S. data remained solid last week, rising uncertainty, fueled by erratic tariff news and spending cuts, is...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 3 March 2025
Key events this week – US labor market for Feb, Fed speeches, ISM surveys, ECB meeting, China NPC, and tariff announcements Recap from last week: Progress on inflation and the evolving US economic outlook. As we approach the next FOMC meeting on 18-19 Mar, the US...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 24 February 2025
Key events this week – US PCE inflation, durable goods orders, Q4 GDP, and ECB minutes Recap from last week: Navigating the push and pull of US policy uncertainty. The Jan FOMC minutes revealed several key themes, but prominent was the underlying uncertainty...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 17 February 2025
Key events this week - FOMC minutes, RBA & RBNZ meetings, CPI; Japan, UK, & Canada, Prelim S&P PMIs Feb Recap from last week: US CPI firms, but PPI offers hope for softer core PCE inflation. The US CPI and PPI releases for Jan offer key insights into the...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 10 February 2025
Recap from last week: The US labor market remains solid in January. The Jan jobs data indicates that US labor market conditions remain solid, maintaining a mostly positive signal for the overall economy. At the last FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell characterized the US...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 3 February 2025
Key events this week – US non-farm payrolls, ISM surveys, Fed speeches, BoE policy meeting Recap from last week: Central banks wary of trade risks. Before the US tariff announcement late last week, central banks wrestled with the potential economic fallout of tariffs...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 27 January 2025
Key events this week – FOMC, ECB, and BoC meetings, PCE inflation, and Q4 growth Recap from last week: Shifting PMIs and the BoJ hikes. The first prelim S&P PMIs for 2025 signaled a shift in momentum. Manufacturing weakness showed some signs of easing, though the...
