Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)
The Macro Outlook for w/c 17 February 2025
Key events this week - FOMC minutes, RBA & RBNZ meetings, CPI; Japan, UK, & Canada, Prelim S&P PMIs Feb Recap from last week: US CPI firms, but PPI offers hope for softer core PCE inflation. The US CPI and PPI releases for Jan offer key insights into the...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 10 February 2025
Recap from last week: The US labor market remains solid in January. The Jan jobs data indicates that US labor market conditions remain solid, maintaining a mostly positive signal for the overall economy. At the last FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell characterized the US...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 3 February 2025
Key events this week – US non-farm payrolls, ISM surveys, Fed speeches, BoE policy meeting Recap from last week: Central banks wary of trade risks. Before the US tariff announcement late last week, central banks wrestled with the potential economic fallout of tariffs...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 27 January 2025
Key events this week – FOMC, ECB, and BoC meetings, PCE inflation, and Q4 growth Recap from last week: Shifting PMIs and the BoJ hikes. The first prelim S&P PMIs for 2025 signaled a shift in momentum. Manufacturing weakness showed some signs of easing, though the...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 20 January 2025
Key events this week – Inauguration, central banks, and S&P prelim PMIS for Jan 2025 Recap from last week: US inflation concerns ease, growth momentum lifts. Markets generally took comfort from the US CPI and PPI reports last week. The headline and core CPI rates...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 13 January 2025
Key events this week – US CPI, PPI, & retail sales, China GDP, Trump cabinet confirmation hearings start Recap from last week: FOMC minutes and a better-than-expected US jobs report. The Dec minutes show the FOMC navigating a shifting balance between increased...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 6 January 2025
Key events this week – US jobs report Dec, FOMC minutes, Fed speeches, CPI: Euro area, China, and Australia Recap from last week: Manufacturing activity remains weak in December. Despite another quiet week for economic data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNowcast for Q4 US GDP...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 30 December 2024
Key events this week – US ISM manufacturing PMI, global PMI’s Dec Recap from last week: The Atlanta Fed Q4 GDP growth run rate is unchanged. US economic growth continues to maintain stronger momentum through the second half of 2024. The final estimate of US Q3 GDP...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 23 December 2024
Key events this week – US durable goods orders, RBA & BoJ minutes Recap from last week: Fed signals shift to a cautious approach to further rate cuts. The FOMC decision last week signaled a more hawkish shift in the Fed's stance. Even the decision to cut rates by...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 16 December 2024
Key events this week – US Fed rate decision, BoJ & BoE meetings, key data releases; US PCE inflation & retail sales, global CPI reports, and S&P prelim PMIs Recap from last week: Implication of US inflation on Fed rate cut expectations. Last week’s firmer...
