Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)
The Macro Outlook for w/c 20 January 2025
Key events this week – Inauguration, central banks, and S&P prelim PMIS for Jan 2025 Recap from last week: US inflation concerns ease, growth momentum lifts. Markets generally took comfort from the US CPI and PPI reports last week. The headline and core CPI rates...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 13 January 2025
Key events this week – US CPI, PPI, & retail sales, China GDP, Trump cabinet confirmation hearings start Recap from last week: FOMC minutes and a better-than-expected US jobs report. The Dec minutes show the FOMC navigating a shifting balance between increased...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 6 January 2025
Key events this week – US jobs report Dec, FOMC minutes, Fed speeches, CPI: Euro area, China, and Australia Recap from last week: Manufacturing activity remains weak in December. Despite another quiet week for economic data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNowcast for Q4 US GDP...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 30 December 2024
Key events this week – US ISM manufacturing PMI, global PMI’s Dec Recap from last week: The Atlanta Fed Q4 GDP growth run rate is unchanged. US economic growth continues to maintain stronger momentum through the second half of 2024. The final estimate of US Q3 GDP...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 23 December 2024
Key events this week – US durable goods orders, RBA & BoJ minutes Recap from last week: Fed signals shift to a cautious approach to further rate cuts. The FOMC decision last week signaled a more hawkish shift in the Fed's stance. Even the decision to cut rates by...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 16 December 2024
Key events this week – US Fed rate decision, BoJ & BoE meetings, key data releases; US PCE inflation & retail sales, global CPI reports, and S&P prelim PMIs Recap from last week: Implication of US inflation on Fed rate cut expectations. Last week’s firmer...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 9 December 2024
Key events this week – US CPI & PPI, Central bank decisions; RBA, BoC, ECB, & the SNB Recap from last week: Mixed signals from the US labor market. Fed Governor Waller's speech last week addressed the central question facing the FOMC ahead of its meeting next...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 2 December 2024
Key events this week – US non-farm payrolls, Fed Chair Powell & Gov Waller speeches Recap from last week: Slower progress on US inflation. The US Fed's preferred PCE inflation measure for Oct remained firmer, as both headline and core PCE inflation increased...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 25 November 2024
Key events this week – US Thanksgiving holiday, US PCE inflation & FOMC minutes, RBNZ meeting, more global CPI reports Recap from last week: S&P prelim PMIs for Nov and global inflation reports; slowing growth and persistent inflation. Broadly, the S&P...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 18 November 2024
Key events this week – US housing data, S&P prelim PMIs for Nov, global inflation reports, and RBA minutes. Recap from last week: Progress on US inflation and implications for the FOMC. US CPI for Oct highlighted several important points. US inflation has...
