Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)

The Macro Outlook for w/c 18 November 2024

Key events this week – US housing data, S&P prelim PMIs for Nov, global inflation reports, and RBA minutes. Recap from last week: Progress on US inflation and implications for the FOMC. US CPI for Oct highlighted several important points. US inflation has...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 11 November 2024

Key events this week – US CPI, PPI, & retail sales, Fed Chair Powell speech Recap from last week: The US Presidential election and central bank meeting highlights. Despite the heightened pre-election uncertainty, US President Trump and the Republican Party are...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 4 November 2024

Key events this week – US Presidential election, FOMC, BoE, and RBA meetings Recap from last week: Implications of US data for the FOMC Two recent quotes from US Fed officials provide a framework for assessing the significant data from last week; “If the economy...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 28 October 2024

Key events this week – US labor market, PCE inflation, & GDP Q3, Aus CPI Q3, BoJ meeting, Euro Area GDP Q3 & prelim CPI Recap from last week It was generally a quiet week of data last week, ahead of the important releases this week. Commentary in the latest US...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 21 October 2024

Key events this week – US durable goods orders, Fed Beige Book, PBoC & BoC meeting, S&P prelim PMIs Recap from last week; A More Deliberate Approach for US Rate Cuts Amid Global Inflation Trends The implications of US data and speeches last week contrasted...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 14 October 2024

Key events this week – US retail sales, ECB meeting, CPI - Euro Area, Japan, Canada, NZ, and the UK, China data Recap from last week; FOMC minutes, firmer US CPI, and the spike in initial claims The FOMC minutes reflected the details of the decision to cut rates for...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 7 October 2024

Key events this week - US CPI & PPI, Minutes; FOMC, ECB, & RBA, RBNZ policy meeting Recap from last week; The US labor market not weakening as much as thought. During his speech last week, US Fed Chair Powell’s comments built on the themes from the most recent...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 30 September 2024

Key events this week – US non-farm payrolls, US Fed Chair Powell speech, Eurozone CPI prelim, S&P global PMIs - final Recap from last week - Signs of progress on US PCE Inflation Last week, Fed speeches confirmed broad support for the FOMC’s decision to start...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 23 September 2024

Key events this week – US PCE inflation, Fed speeches, RBA & SNB meeting, Aus CPI, S&P Prelim PMIs Sept Recap from last week Last week, the FOMC joined the shift towards easing monetary policy settings. The FOMC began its rate-cutting cycle with a 50bps...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 16 September 2024

Key events this week – FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meetings, US retail sales, CPI: Japan, UK, and Canada Recap from last week The US CPI report for Aug was a little mixed given the unexpected firmness in core CPI. Recent comments by Fed Chair Powell have noted that ‘the job is...

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