Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)
The Macro Outlook for w/c 12 September 2022
Key events for the week ahead – US CPI & retail sales Recap from last week; Central bank speeches and policy decisions continued to signal a firm commitment to address inflation to keep inflation expectations anchored. US Fed Chair Powell remained hawkish and kept...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 5 September 2022
Key events for the week ahead – Central bank policy decisions and speeches, including Fed Chair Powell, and global services PMIs US non-farm payrolls remained solid, coming in higher than expected at +315k (expecting +285k) for Aug. There was a notable downward...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 29 August 2022
Key events for the week ahead – US non-farm Payrolls, Fed speak, Euro area CPI for Aug, PMI’s Recap from last week The markets continue to digest the hawkish message from Jackson Hole – that central bankers (except the BoJ) are committed to addressing high inflation,...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 22 August 2022
Key events for the week ahead – Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Recap from last week The minutes of the Jul FOMC meeting quelled the idea of a dovish Fed pivot at this time. The minutes showed that moving to a “restrictive stance of policy was required” given the...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 15 August 2022
Key events for the week ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Minutes, RBNZ monetary policy meeting, US retail sales, inflation; UK, Canada, & Japan Recap from last week US headline CPI decelerated slightly more than expected to +8.5% in Jul (expecting +8.7%) - from +9.1% in...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 8 August 2022
Key events for the week ahead – US CPI Recap from last week US Fed speeches walked back market interpretations of a Fed ‘pivot’ from the last FOMC meeting. Speakers remained hawkish, signaling their commitment to bring down inflation, that there was ‘still a long way...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 1 August 2022
Key events for the week ahead – Global PMIs for Jul, BoE and RBA decisions, and US non-farm payrolls The FOMC raised the FFR target by 75bps to 2.25%-2.5%. The FOMC has followed its plan to increase rates ‘expeditiously’ to the 'neutral' rate. In a highly contentious...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 25 July 2022
Key events for the week ahead – FOMC monetary policy decision, US and Euro area Q2 GDP growth, and inflation data Recap from last week There were several notable parts of the ECB decision last week. The ECB increased its key interest rates more than expected by 50bps,...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 18 July 2022
Key events for the week ahead – ECB & BoJ policy decisions, RBA Minutes, inflation reports, and prelim PMIs for July Recap from last week US CPI accelerated more than expected to +9.1% for Jun. Fed speeches and market reactions indicate that at least another 75bps...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 11 July 2022
Key events for the week ahead – US CPI & retail sales, RBNZ & BoC policy decisions, and US Q2 earnings Recap from last week The pace of inflation, the strength of the labour market, and growth remain key barometers for central banks in this tightening cycle....
