Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)
The Macro Outlook for w/c 4 July 2022
Key events for the week ahead – US non-farm payrolls, FOMC & ECB minutes, RBA policy decision Recap from last week At the ECB Forum at Sintra last week, central bankers agreed that we aren’t returning to a ‘lowflation’ world. While Inflation may come down from...
The Macro Outlook for the w/c 27 June 2022
Key events for the week ahead – US PCE inflation, Eurozone inflation, ECB Forum on Central Banking Recap from last week An increasingly hawkish Fed has raised the risk of a recession, or at least, reduced the chances of a soft landing on a narrow landing strip. In...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 20 June 2022
Key events for the week ahead – CPI reports (UK, Japan, and Canada), Chair Powell testimony, and prelim PMIs for June Recap from last week Higher than expected CPI and inflation expectations readings from the University of Michigan survey prompted the FOMC to...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 13 June 2022
Key events for the week ahead – Central bank decisions; FOMC, BoE, BoJ, and SNB, US retail sales, and ongoing geopolitical risk Recap from last week Last week, the RBA surprised markets, and the broader community, with a 50bps rate hike and signaled “doing what is...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 6 June 2022
Key events for the week ahead – RBA and ECB policy decisions, US inflation, and ongoing geopolitical risk The RBA will meet on monetary policy early this week. Another 25bps increase in the cash rate target is expected, with a chance for a 40bps increase. The last...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 23 May 2022
Key themes for the week ahead – global growth momentum, US PCE inflation, FOMC minutes, RBNZ, and ongoing geopolitical risk Recap from last week There was a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Powell last week. The FOMC needs to see inflation come down in a “clear and...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 16 May 2022
Key themes for the week ahead – inflation, US retail sales, central bank speeches & minutes, and ongoing geopolitical risk Recap from last week US CPI for Apr and Fed speeches was the focus of last week. US CPI growth did ease to +8.3% in Apr from +8.5% in Mar but...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 9 May 2022
Key themes for the week ahead – US CPI, central bank speeches, and ongoing geopolitical risk Recap from last week The FOMC, RBA, and BoE increased rates to curb inflation, announced balance sheet reduction, and guided higher for the likely path of rates. The FOMC...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 2 May 2022
Key events for the week ahead – FOMC, BoE, and RBA meetings, US non-farm payrolls, and ongoing geopolitical risk Recap from last week US Q1 real GDP surprised to the downside due to a notable contraction in net exports. US goods exports declined while import demand...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 25 April 2022
Key themes for the week ahead – Inflation and growth data, BoJ meeting, and ongoing geopolitical risk Recap from last week Last week, US Fed Chair Powell indicated that a 50bps increase will be on the table for the May meeting. Other speeches by Fed officials last...
