Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)
The Macro Outlook for w/c 28 June 2021
This week, the focus will be on the US non-farm payrolls report for Jun – just before the US Independence Day long weekend. It will be a somewhat quieter week on the central bank front. There will be speeches by Governor Lowe of the RBA ahead of the RBA meeting next...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 21 June 2021
The focus this week is likely to remain on the FOMC meeting last week – and the (interpreted) shift in signaling from that meeting. Be aware that many FOMC members will be speaking this week, including Chair Powell providing testimony on the Covid response to the US...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 14 June 2021
The focus this week will be on central bank meetings, including the US FOMC and a raft of CPI and PPI reports for May. Last week, annual growth in the US CPI accelerated at a faster pace of 4.93% for May (from 4.15% in Apr). There was a smaller base effect this month...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 7 June 2021
The US CPI release for May and the ECB rates decision will be the focus for the week – both on Thursday. It will be a quiet week for US Fed speeches in the lead-up to the FOMC meeting next week. Estimates for the increase in US non-farm payrolls last week were varied....
The Macro Outlook for w/c 31 May 2021
It will be a big week of data, central bank speeches, the RBA rates decision, and OPEC. Markets currently expect US inflation to be transitory and are looking through the higher prints as we cycle over the low points of consumer inflation last year. The latest Apr US...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 24 May 2021
The focus this week will be on US data, notably the personal income, consumption, and PCE price index data for Apr. There will also be several speeches and testimony by US Fed Vice Chair Quarles and the rates decision by the RBNZ. The key US data highlights this week...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 17 May 2021
The focus this week will be on the FOMC minutes, US housing data, and the global prelim PMI’s for May. The upside surprise for US CPI in Apr dominated the news last week. Other data was generally in line with expectations, although PPI growth also came in higher. US...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 10 May 2021
*Updated 11 May 2021 with US Treasury issuance for the week. The focus this week will be on US inflation, consumer spending, and industrial output. US Fed Governors will also be active with several speeches throughout the week. Last week, the key US payrolls report...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 3 May 2021
Data this week should continue to demonstrate a stronger pace of recovery in the US – due in part to the substantial stimulus support and the vaccine rollout. The key data highlights are US Non-Farm Payrolls and the US ISM PMI’s. Global Markit PMI’s will also be in...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 26 April 2021
This will be a big week with more central bank meetings (FOMC and BoJ) and key data releases. The US FOMC will meet this week with the policy decision due on Wed. No change is expected to the current policy settings. There is some anticipation around how the messaging...