Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)
The Macro Outlook for w/c 5 February 2024
Key events this week – RBA monetary policy meeting, US CPI seasonal factors, US ISM Services PMI, S&P global services PMI’s Recap from last week As expected, the FOMC kept rates on hold last week. Guidance evolved in line with a series of changes over the last...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 29 January 2024
Key events this week – FOMC and BoE meetings, US non-farm payrolls, Aus Q4 CPI, Euro Area prelim CPI & GDP Q4 Recap from last week There was more good news on US growth and inflation last week. US GDP growth came in higher than expected at +3.3% annualized in Q4,...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 22 January 2024
Key events this week – Central banks; BoJ, BoC, and ECB, US PCE inflation, Prelim PMIs Jan Recap from last week As markets anticipate the start of the US rate-cutting cycle, US Fed Governor Waller provided important context and markers around the FOMC projections of...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 15 January 2024
Key events this week – US retail sales & housing data, US Fed Governor Waller speech, CPI; Japan, UK, Eurozone, and Canada Recap from last week Speeches by Fed officials reiterated that a range of policy outcomes were still possible – pushing back on markets and...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 8 January 2024
Key events this week – US CPI, Aus monthly CPI & retail sales Recap from last week Details of the latest FOMC deliberations provided some balanced commentary. The change in guidance to include ‘any additional tightening’ was intended to relay that while the FFR...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 1 January 2024
Key events this week – FOMC Minutes, US Non-Farm Payrolls, Euro Area CPI, PMI’s for Dec Recap from last week US PCE inflation for Nov continued to ease at a faster-than-expected pace. We recently noted that US inflation has eased more than expected through the latter...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 18 December 2023
Key events this week – US PCE inflation, CPI reports for the UK, Canada, Japan, and the Euro Area (final), BoJ meeting, RBA minutes Recap from last week Communication and signaling from the FOMC diverged from other central banks last week. The FOMC kept policy...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 11 December 2023
Key events this week – Central bank meetings; FOMC, BoE, ECB, and SNB, US CPI & retail sales, Aus labour market survey, S&P prelim PMIs Dec Recap from last week Robust US labor market conditions amid easing inflation are continuing to support households while...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 4 December 2023
Key events this week – US non-farm payrolls, RBA & BoC meetings, GDP Q3; Aus, Japan and the Euro Area Recap from last week Progress on slowing US and Euro Area inflation has reignited optimism for a policy shift with markets pricing a larger number of rate cuts in...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 27 November 2023
Key events this week – Inflation; US PCE Inflation, Euro Area CPI, and Aus CPI, RBNZ policy decision, US Fed-speak including Fed Chair Powell Outlook for the week ahead Progress on inflation will be a key theme in the week ahead. US PCE inflation for Oct will be...