Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)

The Macro Outlook for w/c 20 November 2023

Key events this week – US Thanksgiving Holiday, Minutes; FOMC, RBA, & ECB, Inflation; Japan & Canada, S&P Prelim PMIs Nov Recap from last week After a relatively big week of US data, the latest Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast showed the US Q4 growth estimate...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 13 November 2023

Key events this week – US CPI & retail sales, Aus labor market & wage price index, inflation; UK, Euro area, central bank speeches Recap from last week Despite a light data week, there were several important points around some key themes. Central banks have...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 6 November 2023

Key events this week – RBA monetary policy decision, US Fed-speak including Fed Chair Powell, UK GDP Q3 Recap from last week Central bank decisions and important data overtook heightened geopolitical concerns last week. As expected, the FOMC kept policy settings...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 30 October 2023

Key events this week – FOMC, BoJ, and BoE monetary policy decisions, US non-farm payrolls & ISM surveys Recap from last week The prelim release of US Q3 GDP did not disappoint last week. Real GDP growth in Q3 was higher than expected at +4.9% (annualized basis)....

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 23 October 2023

Key events this week – US PCE inflation & Q3 GDP, Fed speeches, ECB & BoC monetary policy meetings, Aus CPI, Prelim PMIs Oct Recap from last week Fed speeches last week acknowledged that US economic activity had picked up through Q3 – including spending and...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 16 October 2023

Key events this week – US Fed Chair Powell speech, US retail sales, CPI reports; UK, Canada, NZ, Japan, and the Euro Area Recap from last week US annual headline CPI inflation came in only slightly higher than expected at +3.7% while core inflation was in line with...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 9 October 2023

Key events this week – US CPI, FOMC Minutes, Fed Speak Recap from last week For the moment, robust US labor market conditions continue to support growth resilience. Through the tightening cycle so far, indicators of heightened labor demand across non-farm payrolls,...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 2 October 2023

Key events this week – US non-farm payrolls & ISM surveys, RBA & RBNZ monetary policy decisions Recap from last week US core PCE inflation continued to ease while spending and growth data reflected mostly resilient economic conditions. The elephant in the room...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 25 September 2023

Key events this week – US PCE inflation, spending, housing, and growth, Fed speeches incl Fed Chair Powell, Euro Area & Aus inflation Recap from last week There was a further shift to a pause in policy hikes from central banks last week. The FOMC kept rates on...

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The Macro Outlook for w/c 18 September 2023

Key events this week – Monetary policy decisions; FOMC, BoE, SNB, & BoJ, CPI: Eurozone, UK, Canada, & Japan, Prelim PMIs Sep Recap from last week We have previously noted that central banks have been shifting to a pause in the rate hiking cycle, having...

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