Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)
The Macro Outlook for w/c 11 March 2024
Key events this week – US: CPI & PPI, retail sales, and industrial production Recap from last week US data last week indicated minimal change in the labor market and growth outlook for the FOMC in two weeks. Although US labor market conditions are gradually...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 4 March 2024
Key events this week; US Non-Farm Payrolls, US Fed Chair Powell testimony, ECB & BoC Monetary Policy Meetings Recap from last week US PCE inflation, spending, and broader activity data painted a mixed picture last week. US PCE inflation came in as expected with...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 26 February 2024
Key events this week; Inflation - US PCE inflation, Euro Area CPI, Japanese CPI, Aus CPI; US & Canada Q4 GDP; RBNZ Rates Decision Recap from last week Central bank minutes and speeches were in focus last week. The message theme from the FOMC & ECB minutes and...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 19 February 2024
Key events this week – Central bank minutes - FOMC, RBA, & ECB; US Fed speeches - Waller, Jefferson, Cook; Inflation - Euro Area CPI, Canada CPI & Aus wages; Prelim S&P PMIs Feb Recap from last week US headline CPI for Jan came in higher than expected but...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 12 February 2024
Key events this week – US CPI, PPI, & retail sales, Aus labour market survey Recap from last week Among the larger economies, central bank guidance continues to shift from an outright tightening bias to maintaining current interest rates. Recent guidance from the...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 5 February 2024
Key events this week – RBA monetary policy meeting, US CPI seasonal factors, US ISM Services PMI, S&P global services PMI’s Recap from last week As expected, the FOMC kept rates on hold last week. Guidance evolved in line with a series of changes over the last...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 29 January 2024
Key events this week – FOMC and BoE meetings, US non-farm payrolls, Aus Q4 CPI, Euro Area prelim CPI & GDP Q4 Recap from last week There was more good news on US growth and inflation last week. US GDP growth came in higher than expected at +3.3% annualized in Q4,...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 22 January 2024
Key events this week – Central banks; BoJ, BoC, and ECB, US PCE inflation, Prelim PMIs Jan Recap from last week As markets anticipate the start of the US rate-cutting cycle, US Fed Governor Waller provided important context and markers around the FOMC projections of...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 15 January 2024
Key events this week – US retail sales & housing data, US Fed Governor Waller speech, CPI; Japan, UK, Eurozone, and Canada Recap from last week Speeches by Fed officials reiterated that a range of policy outcomes were still possible – pushing back on markets and...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 8 January 2024
Key events this week – US CPI, Aus monthly CPI & retail sales Recap from last week Details of the latest FOMC deliberations provided some balanced commentary. The change in guidance to include ‘any additional tightening’ was intended to relay that while the FFR...