Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)
The Macro Outlook for w/c 3 July 2023
Key events this week – US non-farm payrolls, FOMC minutes, RBA rate decision, global PMIs Recap from last week The recent pulse of stronger-than-expected US data has cast doubt over the magnitude of the slow-down in the US economy. As recession expectations drift...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 26 June 2023
Key events this week – Inflation; US PCE, CPI for the Euro Area, Tokyo, Aus, and Canada, ECB Forum on Central Banking – policy panel with Fed Chair Powell, BoE Governor Bailey, ECB President Lagarde, and BoJ Governor Ueda Recap from last week If there has been a theme...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 19 June 2023
Key events this week – BoE policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell testimony, Fed Vice Chair nomination hearings, RBA Minutes, global flash PMI’s Jun Recap from last week; Monetary policy meetings spanned a broad spectrum of conditions last week. The FOMC paused hikes with...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 12 June 2023
Key events this week – Monetary policy decisions; FOMC, ECB, and the BoJ, US CPI & Retail Sales, Aus Employment, Euro Area CPI Recap from last week Both the RBA and BoC have restarted policy hikes, citing persistent inflation. The RBA hiked for the second month in...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 5 June 2023
Key events this week – US ISM Services PMI, RBA & BoC policy decisions, global services PMIs Recap from last week US labor market data provided conflicting signals from the latest non-farm payrolls report and household employment survey. But with so much monetary...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 29 May 2023
Key events this week – US Non-Farm Payrolls, Euro Area CPI May, Aus Monthly CPI Recap from last week The latest FOMC minutes showed uncertainty about the path of rates in the outlook and the extent to which further rate increases would be appropriate. Members noted...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 22 May 2023
Key events this week – US PCE inflation, FOMC minutes, Prelim PMIs May, RBNZ policy decision Recap from last week In his speech last week, US Fed Chair Powell gave the strongest indication yet of a potential pause in the US rate hiking cycle. He noted that the stance...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 15 May 2023
Key events this week – US Retail Sales, US Fed Chair Powell, Central Bank speeches, RBA Minutes, global CPIs for Apr; Canada, Japan, Euro Area Recap from last week There was a small deceleration in annual US inflation for Apr. Inflation remains high with headline CPI...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 1 May 2023
Key events this week – Central bank decisions; FOMC, ECB, and the RBA, US non-farm payrolls, Eurozone CPI, global PMI’s Apr Recap from last week Data continued to highlight slower US growth momentum while core inflation remained persistent. US real GDP growth slowed...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 24 April 2023
Key events this week – US PCE inflation & ECI Q1, Aus CPI, US & Euro Area flash GDP Q1, BoJ Meeting Recap from last week Data painted a mixed picture of US growth momentum at the end of Q1 going into Q2. The US Fed Beige Book survey contained anecdotes of...