Macro Briefing Notes (unlocked)
The Macro Outlook for w/c 1 January 2024
Key events this week – FOMC Minutes, US Non-Farm Payrolls, Euro Area CPI, PMI’s for Dec Recap from last week US PCE inflation for Nov continued to ease at a faster-than-expected pace. We recently noted that US inflation has eased more than expected through the latter...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 18 December 2023
Key events this week – US PCE inflation, CPI reports for the UK, Canada, Japan, and the Euro Area (final), BoJ meeting, RBA minutes Recap from last week Communication and signaling from the FOMC diverged from other central banks last week. The FOMC kept policy...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 11 December 2023
Key events this week – Central bank meetings; FOMC, BoE, ECB, and SNB, US CPI & retail sales, Aus labour market survey, S&P prelim PMIs Dec Recap from last week Robust US labor market conditions amid easing inflation are continuing to support households while...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 4 December 2023
Key events this week – US non-farm payrolls, RBA & BoC meetings, GDP Q3; Aus, Japan and the Euro Area Recap from last week Progress on slowing US and Euro Area inflation has reignited optimism for a policy shift with markets pricing a larger number of rate cuts in...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 27 November 2023
Key events this week – Inflation; US PCE Inflation, Euro Area CPI, and Aus CPI, RBNZ policy decision, US Fed-speak including Fed Chair Powell Outlook for the week ahead Progress on inflation will be a key theme in the week ahead. US PCE inflation for Oct will be...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 20 November 2023
Key events this week – US Thanksgiving Holiday, Minutes; FOMC, RBA, & ECB, Inflation; Japan & Canada, S&P Prelim PMIs Nov Recap from last week After a relatively big week of US data, the latest Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast showed the US Q4 growth estimate...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 13 November 2023
Key events this week – US CPI & retail sales, Aus labor market & wage price index, inflation; UK, Euro area, central bank speeches Recap from last week Despite a light data week, there were several important points around some key themes. Central banks have...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 6 November 2023
Key events this week – RBA monetary policy decision, US Fed-speak including Fed Chair Powell, UK GDP Q3 Recap from last week Central bank decisions and important data overtook heightened geopolitical concerns last week. As expected, the FOMC kept policy settings...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 30 October 2023
Key events this week – FOMC, BoJ, and BoE monetary policy decisions, US non-farm payrolls & ISM surveys Recap from last week The prelim release of US Q3 GDP did not disappoint last week. Real GDP growth in Q3 was higher than expected at +4.9% (annualized basis)....
The Macro Outlook for w/c 23 October 2023
Key events this week – US PCE inflation & Q3 GDP, Fed speeches, ECB & BoC monetary policy meetings, Aus CPI, Prelim PMIs Oct Recap from last week Fed speeches last week acknowledged that US economic activity had picked up through Q3 – including spending and...