Macro Briefing Notes
The Macro Outlook for w/c 13 February 2023
Key events this week – US CPI, retail sales, production, and housing data, UK CPI, RBA Governor Lowe's testimony Recap from last week The stronger US nonfarm payrolls were a catalyst for a shift in the narrative last week. Markets have been digesting the stronger US...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 6 February 2023
Key events this week – Central bank speeches including Fed Chair Powell, RBA monetary policy decision. Recap from last week As expected, the FOMC increased the FFR target by 25bps. Guidance was unchanged and the main points were clear; “ongoing increases will be...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 30 January 2023
Key events this week – Central bank policy decisions; FOMC, BoE, and ECB, US non-farm payrolls Recap from last week US inflation moderated in line with expectations. Headline US PCE inflation came in at +5% for Dec, slowing from +5.5% in Nov, led by falling energy...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 23 January 2023
Key events this week – US PCE Price Index, US GDP Q4, Aus & NZ CPI Q4, BoC policy meeting Recap from last week US data was mixed last week. Consumer spending and industrial output fell in Dec, while initial jobless claims remained low. Housing data was weak, but...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 16 January 2023
Key events for the week ahead – US retail sales, Fed speak, BoJ policy decision, CPI reports; Japan, Canada, UK, and the Eurozone, China GDP, Davos Recap from last week US CPI slowed again in Dec to +6.4% (from +7.1% in Nov). The monthly pace declined slightly. Food,...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 9 January 2023
Key events for the week ahead – US CPI, US Fed Chair Powell panel discussion Recap from last week Data continued to paint a picture of a reasonably robust US labor market despite slowing employment growth momentum. Growth in average hourly earnings slowed but...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 2 January 2023
Key events for the week ahead – US non-farm payrolls, Euro Area prelim CPI (Dec), S&P global PMIs, FOMC minutes (TBC) Recap from the last two weeks The US PCE inflation report for Nov was released before the holiday break. PCE inflation slowed more than expected...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 19 December 2022
Key events for the week ahead – US PCE Price inflation, Japan & Canada CPI, BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting, RBA Minutes Recap from last week Major central banks continued to tighten policy last week. The FOMC increased the FFR by 50bps as US CPI showed signs of...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 12 December 2022
Key events for the week ahead – FOMC, BoE, ECB, and SNB policy meetings, US CPI and retail sales, Euro area and UK CPI, prelim PMIs Dec Recap from last week The week started with a WSJ article titled “Fed to weigh higher interest rates next year while slowing rises...
The Macro Outlook for w/c 5 December 2022
Key events for the week ahead – US ISM services PMI, RBA & BoC policy decisions, global services PMIs Recap from last week As broadly expected, Chair Powell signaled that “the time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as Dec.” The timing of...
