The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, the equity market rally failed to extend higher in 5 waves and instead reversed sharply lower breaking near term support. Given the corrective nature of the decline from ATH's, we continue to see this decline as part of a larger degree wave (4) correction. The question is whether the decline is a 4th wave triangle or an A-B-C correction targeting equality? Note the key trend channel, 200 day sma and equality targets for support. The decline in rates, the US$ and commodities continue...

The equity bull market remains intact as the series of impulsive rallies and corrective declines continues. Last week's decline in the benchmark SPX / ES into 50 day sma support appears corrective as we look for an extension higher in wave (v) of 5 to new ATH's. There is no evidence of a tradable top as the bull trend continues. Both rates and US$ markets remain range bound as the lack of volatility provides a tailwind for risk. Crude Oil remains trapped within its triangle consolidation and...

Last week, equities broke through overlap resistance and rallied strongly to help confirm a corrective decline and ongoing bull market trend. The market leading SPX and Nasdaq have rallied in an extended 3 waves up so far and need to continue higher in 5 waves to help confirm the immediate rally to new ATH's. The alternative is a more complex larger degree wave (4) correction - either way, the recent sharp corrective decline in 3 waves warns of further upside as the series of higher highs and...

Last week, equities declined sharply into measured support before rebounding throughout the week. The decline from ATH's is only in a corrective 3 waves so far and needs to extend immediately lower in 5 waves down to help confirm a bigger picture bearish change in trend. Bulls need to hold last week's lows and extend the rally into an impulsive 5 waves up to help confirm a bullish trend continuation. Near term inflection. The bond markets thrust higher as expected and while the TY and FV...

Last week, equities broke support and flushed sharply lower in what is expected to be a wave (c) or (iii) decline. The broad based decline and risk-off environment saw the Nasdaq, NYFANG and SPX continue to decline impulsively through equality support. The Russell pushed to marginal new highs before reversing sharply lower late in the week for a weekly bearish reversal. The bigger picture question is whether the equity market rally has topped in all of (5) of V or only (3) of V? Bears need to...

Last week, equity markets extended lower as expected but inter-market divergence continued. The Nasdaq and semiconductors led the decline with an impulsive 5 waves down while the broader indices (SPX / DJIA / RSP) only declined in a corrective 3 waves down so far. This divergence warns of a potential top in the Nasdaq and semi's while we could see an extension higher in the broader indices? The DXY and US rates remain trapped within triangle compressions and are nearing a potential breakout...

Last week, equities reversed sharply lower after pushing to marginal new ATH's in a warning sign that the primary bull market trend may be exhausting. While the initial equity market decline appears impulsive, it would look best with a small degree 5th wave extension lower followed by a corrective 3 wave rally to set up a larger degree decline. Interestingly, both the DJIA and Russell reversed lower late in the week following strong triangle thrusts (ending waves). Bears need to break the...

Last week, equities extended higher but the laggards took the lead as the Russell 2000 broke out from its triangle consolidation and the DJIA pushed to new ATH's. The leaders (SPX and Nasdaq) pushed marginally higher but their impulsive rallies appear extended and more at risk of trend exhaustion. The bull market in equities remains intact until we see confirmation of a bearish reversal and break the sequence of higher highs, higher lows, impulsive rallies and corrective declines. Both rates...

Last week, the equity market leaders extended higher in yet another impulsive rally to new ATH's. The leaders continue to subdivide higher as we look for evidence of trend exhaustion but the trend is your friend until it bends. The DJIA and Russell continue to consolidate within what appear to be near term triangles - these are potentially corrective structures within bigger picture bull trends. The US$ and rates turned lower as expected potentially providing another tail wind for risk assets....

Last week, equity markets traded sideways to down in what appears to be a corrective decline but the cash indices are warning of a potential top. We do NOT have confirmation of a tradable top in the SPX or Nasdaq despite there being enough waves in place to complete the rally. The risk remains for a bull market continuation and 5th wave extension to new ATH's until we see confirmation of a bearish turn. The DJIA and Russell remain range bound in what appear to be triangle consolidations and...