The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, the primary macro market trends remained intact with bullish extensions in equities, rates and the US$. Equities extended higher but the near term rally appears incomplete. Both the Nasdaq and SPX are approaching equality resistance with the potential for a wave 3 or C top. Note the Nasdaq is approaching major overhead resistance at ATH's. The small cap Russell 2000 reversed sharply higher from 50 day sma support and bulls have the opportunity to extend higher. The bond markets...

Last week equities declined in a corrective 3 waves in what appears to be a shallow pullback. There is no evidence of a tradable top with the potential for an immediate extension higher or a more complex correction. Importantly, the Russell 2000 / RTY declined in a corrective 3 waves of equality before rallying late last week opening the door to a more bullish small cap potential. The DXY rallied impulsively from key support as it broke up and out of our ending diagonal while Bonds broke...

Last week, equities extended marginally higher but the big picture wave count only shows 3 waves up from the August lows. While the benchmark SPX and DJIA have pushed to new ATH's, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have not. This inter-market divergence is notable. Impulsive rallies don't end in 3 waves so bulls either need to extend this rally immediately higher in 5 waves or risk a near term reversal and potential wave B top within a complex wave (4) correction. Either way, the big picture bull...

Last week, equities extended higher as expected following the Fed's 50bp cut with the SPX and DJIA impulsing to new ATH's. This latest rally is clearly impulsive but the question remains whether it is an ending wave (c) of B rally as part of a larger degree corrective wave (4) or just part of a bullish wave 3 of (5) rally. There is no evidence of a bearish reversal so bulls remain in control until proven otherwise. The 50bp rate cut provides a tailwind for risk, including equities and...

Last week, equities rallied strongly following a corrective decline as the SPX and DJIA pushed back towards new ATH's. While we had been looking for a deeper correction within the bull market trend, the strength of the rally opens the door to an immediate wave 3 rally to new ATH's (bull case). The key test will be the FOMC this week and we should be aware of the potential for a headfake wave B top - there is now a 50/50 chance of a 50bp cut. Bonds continued to press higher towards overhead...

Last week, the equity market rally failed to extend higher in 5 waves and instead reversed sharply lower breaking near term support. Given the corrective nature of the decline from ATH's, we continue to see this decline as part of a larger degree wave (4) correction. The question is whether the decline is a 4th wave triangle or an A-B-C correction targeting equality? Note the key trend channel, 200 day sma and equality targets for support. The decline in rates, the US$ and commodities continue...

The equity bull market remains intact as the series of impulsive rallies and corrective declines continues. Last week's decline in the benchmark SPX / ES into 50 day sma support appears corrective as we look for an extension higher in wave (v) of 5 to new ATH's. There is no evidence of a tradable top as the bull trend continues. Both rates and US$ markets remain range bound as the lack of volatility provides a tailwind for risk. Crude Oil remains trapped within its triangle consolidation and...

Last week, equities broke through overlap resistance and rallied strongly to help confirm a corrective decline and ongoing bull market trend. The market leading SPX and Nasdaq have rallied in an extended 3 waves up so far and need to continue higher in 5 waves to help confirm the immediate rally to new ATH's. The alternative is a more complex larger degree wave (4) correction - either way, the recent sharp corrective decline in 3 waves warns of further upside as the series of higher highs and...

Last week, equities declined sharply into measured support before rebounding throughout the week. The decline from ATH's is only in a corrective 3 waves so far and needs to extend immediately lower in 5 waves down to help confirm a bigger picture bearish change in trend. Bulls need to hold last week's lows and extend the rally into an impulsive 5 waves up to help confirm a bullish trend continuation. Near term inflection. The bond markets thrust higher as expected and while the TY and FV...

Last week, equities broke support and flushed sharply lower in what is expected to be a wave (c) or (iii) decline. The broad based decline and risk-off environment saw the Nasdaq, NYFANG and SPX continue to decline impulsively through equality support. The Russell pushed to marginal new highs before reversing sharply lower late in the week for a weekly bearish reversal. The bigger picture question is whether the equity market rally has topped in all of (5) of V or only (3) of V? Bears need to...