The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equities extended lower within what appears to be a corrective decline into key 50 day sma trend support. Bulls need to make a stand here to reverse the recent decline or risk a waterfall decline. While the SPX / ES and Nasdaq / NQ declines appear corrective, the DJIA / YM impulsive decline warns of a potential bigger picture top for equity markets. While this is not our base case, we are wary of near term risks if bulls can't immediately reverse last week's decline. Bonds declined...

Last week, equities declined in a corrective 3 waves before rallying strongly on Friday despite the stronger than expected NFP. Bears had an opportunity to press following the strong economic data (anticipating delayed rate cuts) but bulls held trend support and squeezed higher. The underlying bull trend remains intact while corrective declines and impulsive rallies hold our key 50 day sma support. The bond markets continue to sell-off in what we expect to be a wave (c) of B corrective decline...

Last week equities pushed to new ATH's as the series of corrective declines and impulsive rallies continued unabated. The bull trend remains intact despite potentially bearish 5th wave momentum divergence - the trend is your friend until it bends. We continue to monitor the benchmark SPX / ES bullish trend channel that defines this latest advance. Rates and the US$ remain within corrective consolidations as we await the next directional / impulsive move. Commodities continue to push higher...

Last week, equities extended higher while holding near term trend channel support as expected. While the SPX and DJIA pushed higher from what appear to be an ending small degree triangle thrust, there is no evidence of trend exhaustion or a tradable top - equities can continue to extend higher while primary trend channel support and the 50 day sma holds. Central banks continue to signal lower rates despite stronger than expected economic and employment growth. The DXY and rates remain in...

Last week, equities traded sideways in what appears to be a corrective consolidation (so far). There is no strong evidence of a bearish reversal or trend exhaustion despite increasingly bearish momentum divergence. The stronger than expected CPI and PPI caused rates to rise across the board stalling the equity market's rally without the confirmation of a bearish reversal. Small caps continue to lag the broader indices as hopes for an early rate cut appear to fade. The DXY has only declined in...

Last week, equities extended higher with what appears to be an overlapping ending diagonal with increasingly bearish momentum divergence. While there is no confirmation of a tradable top, there are warning signs as the semiconductors reversed sharply lower on Friday - when the leaders fall we need to take notice. The question is whether this rally from the October lows is completing wave (v) of 5 up or a more bullish 3rd wave? The 50 day sma remains key trend support. The US$ fell sharply...

Last week, equity markets continued to rally in what appears to be a subdividing 5th wave of multiple degrees. The running of the bulls continues while we continue to see impulsive rallies and corrective declines - despite increasing momentum divergence, there is NO evidence of trend exhaustion or a tradable top. Bulls remain in control until proven otherwise. The bond markets held support last week and are attempting to hammer out a bullish reversal while the US$ is threatening to roll over....

Last week, equities rallied to new ATH's to extend the sequence of higher highs and higher lows as the daily RSI continues to compress. The question is how long and how far this rally can extend? While we continue to see impulsive rallies and corrective declines the bulls remain in control. We are however alert to the potential for trend exhaustion while 5th wave momentum divergence continues - bears need to break this series of higher highs and higher lows to help confirm a potential tradable...

Last week, equities pushed to marginal new highs before reversing sharply lower post-CPI on sticky inflation data. Equities appear to be wedging into ATH's on deteriorating momentum while holding near term trend channel support. The RSI compression continues to tighten but bears need to see downside follow through this week to break the bull trend - while there are enough waves in place to complete this rally, we still do not have confirmation of a tradable top. Bonds are approaching important...

Last week, equities continued to rally for what appears to be a 5th wave subdivision and extension of multiple degrees. The bulls remain firmly in control with impulsive rallies and corrective declines driving the rally forward - the rally appears incomplete. Bears are running out of runway to stop this advance while maintaining 5th wave momentum divergence. We continue to track the DJIA, NYA and RSP to help identify if this rally is an ending wave C of primary degree or a more bullish 3rd...