The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equities continued to impulse higher on the back of receding inflationary pressures, weaker US$ and lower rates. The risk-on environment continued as markets embraced the goldilocks recovery with primary equity indices pushing to new ATH's. The market structure remains bullish while we continue to see impulsive rallies and corrective declines with the 50 day sma resuming its role as our key trend indicator. As warned, the VIX appears to be pushing to new cycle lows as equities...

Last week, equities continued to squeeze higher through layered overhead resistance as bears failed to make a stand. The equity market rally is in an extended 3 waves so far into 78.6% fib resistance with no evidence of a tradable top. Bears need to defend the ATH's and reverse this rally back below the wave (a) / (i) overlap to help confirm a bigger picture correction. An impulsive rally through ATH's invalidates the near term bear case - the VIX had been warning us of this extended rally....

Last week, equities continued to rebound in what appears to be a complex but corrective 3 wave rally into layered overhead resistance. Our base case remains for at least a wave (c) decline once this corrective wave (b) rally is complete. Bears need to make a stand early this week and reverse last Friday's rally to help confirm a bearish change in trend. Near term inflection for bears at key overhead resistance. Bonds have only rallied in a corrective 3 waves so far from measured support and...

Last week, equities rebounded sharply and we did not get the downside follow through to help confirm an impulsive decline. The structure counts best as a 3 wave decline and subsequent 3 wave rally into overhead 50 day sma resistance for the primary indices. This week will see a key test of overhead resistance as bears need to make a stand and reverse last week's rally to open the door to a larger degree decline. The bond markets are now at key support and bulls need to make a stand this week...

Last week, equities broke the key 50 day sma trend support and flushed lower as expected. "Bulls need to make a stand here to reverse the recent decline or risk a waterfall decline." This latest decline appears to be in an 3 waves down so far and needs to extend lower in an impulsive 5 waves to help confirm a bearish change in trend. The strength of this initial decline warns that it is likely only part of a larger degree correction. Has the market completed an intermediate wave (3) or (B) top...

Last week, equities extended lower within what appears to be a corrective decline into key 50 day sma trend support. Bulls need to make a stand here to reverse the recent decline or risk a waterfall decline. While the SPX / ES and Nasdaq / NQ declines appear corrective, the DJIA / YM impulsive decline warns of a potential bigger picture top for equity markets. While this is not our base case, we are wary of near term risks if bulls can't immediately reverse last week's decline. Bonds declined...

Last week, equities declined in a corrective 3 waves before rallying strongly on Friday despite the stronger than expected NFP. Bears had an opportunity to press following the strong economic data (anticipating delayed rate cuts) but bulls held trend support and squeezed higher. The underlying bull trend remains intact while corrective declines and impulsive rallies hold our key 50 day sma support. The bond markets continue to sell-off in what we expect to be a wave (c) of B corrective decline...

Last week equities pushed to new ATH's as the series of corrective declines and impulsive rallies continued unabated. The bull trend remains intact despite potentially bearish 5th wave momentum divergence - the trend is your friend until it bends. We continue to monitor the benchmark SPX / ES bullish trend channel that defines this latest advance. Rates and the US$ remain within corrective consolidations as we await the next directional / impulsive move. Commodities continue to push higher...

Last week, equities extended higher while holding near term trend channel support as expected. While the SPX and DJIA pushed higher from what appear to be an ending small degree triangle thrust, there is no evidence of trend exhaustion or a tradable top - equities can continue to extend higher while primary trend channel support and the 50 day sma holds. Central banks continue to signal lower rates despite stronger than expected economic and employment growth. The DXY and rates remain in...

Last week, equities traded sideways in what appears to be a corrective consolidation (so far). There is no strong evidence of a bearish reversal or trend exhaustion despite increasingly bearish momentum divergence. The stronger than expected CPI and PPI caused rates to rise across the board stalling the equity market's rally without the confirmation of a bearish reversal. Small caps continue to lag the broader indices as hopes for an early rate cut appear to fade. The DXY has only declined in...