The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equities continued to subdivide higher as expected and now have enough waves in place to complete 5 waves up of mulltiple degrees. Note the 5th wave bearish momentum divergence across multiple timeframes that have the potential to end this rally. However, given the strength of this rally and break to new ATH's, the onus is on the bears to reverse this bull trend or risk a stronger rally. The DJIA, NYA and RSP are all approaching equality resistance so bears need to make a stand or...

Last week, equities continued to subdivide higher in what is likely to be an ending 5th wave rally. We are now alert to a potential market top this week as we look for these final subdivisions to complete 5 waves up of multiple degrees. While there is no evidence yet of a tradable top, bearish momentum divergence continues to build across multiple timeframes, warning of potential trend exhaustion. Importantly, the DJIA, NYA and RSP are all approaching measured equality targets for a wave C...

Last week, equities rallied as anticipated and broke out to new ATH's in what appears to be a 5th wave extension. The SPX, DJIA and NDX all pushed to new ATH's to help broaden the rally. We had been looking for a final 5th wave rally in the DJIA, NYA and RSP to help set up a potential tradable top - the NYA and RSP remain short of measured targets. We now need to see a completed 5 wave subdivision higher before looking for potential market top. The US$ and rates have rallied in a corrective 3...

Equities rebounded last week as expected, but the rally in the leaders (SPX / NDX) appears impulsive while the laggards (Russell / DJIA) appear corrective - we therefore cannot discount the potential for a final 5th wave extension to marginal new highs to align with final 5th wave rallies in the DJIA, RSP and NYA. Note the bearish momentum divergence building across the various equity indices... The US$ remains within a corrective rally as we await a final thrust higher in (c) before the...

Last week, global equities declined sharply from ATH resistance to start the new year with what appears to be an impulsive decline. The risk markets were highly correlated as the US$ (DXY), rates and equities all reversed strongly from year end trends. The DXY led the way as expected with a clearly impulsive rally up off the swing lows. The question is whether this risk reversal is sustainable or only "part" of a larger degree correction within the bigger picture primary trend? Note that with...

Global equity indices extended higher into year end for a hard test of ATH resistance. While the rally is extended, there is no strong evidence of trend exhaustion or a bearish reversal as equities impulse higher into resistance. The US$ decline has extended into 5 waves down and has enough waves in place for what could be the first wave down of a larger degree bear trend. The bond rally extended higher for what is likely wave (iii) of a larger degree wave A corrective rally of primary degree....

NB:- This will be the last update for 2023. Wishing everyone a safe and happy holidays and a very prosperous new year. We will be taking some time off to refresh over the holidays and prepare for the new year. Thank you to all for your support as we look forward to the year ahead 🙂 Last week, equity markets continued higher to tag our price and time targets for a wave 5 rally into ATH resistance. While there are enough waves in place to complete the latest impulsive rally into the holidays,...

Last week, equity markets continued to consolidate below resistance while threatening to extend higher towards 5th wave targets. The troops are now following the generals for a hard test of ATH's. This week holds significant market risks as equities attempt to press higher in the face of key Inflation and Retail Sales data along with the latest FOMC and global CB meetings. The market narrative pricing in future rate cuts is at risk given consistently resilient labor markets. Bond markets...

Last week, the global equity market rally continued unabated with a clear broadening as the troops (Russell, NYA and RSP) finally broke higher to rally impulsively and play "catch-up" to the generals (SPX, Nasdaq and DJIA). This broadening of the rally warns of greater upside potential in a running of the bulls as we now have impulsive rallies across the board. The primary equity indices are all approaching ATH's that should provide significant layered resistance for the bulls - a push to new...

Last week, equities continued to extend higher towards bigger picture resistance in the holiday shortened week. The major indices continue to lead the way with the Nasdaq, S&P and DJIA continuing to impulse higher while the Russell, NYA and RSP rallies appear corrective (so far). These fragmented markets warn of greater risks going forward unless the small caps and broader indices can recapture upside momentum. The strength of this rally continues to warn that the bull market is attempting...