The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Equities rebounded last week as expected, but the rally in the leaders (SPX / NDX) appears impulsive while the laggards (Russell / DJIA) appear corrective - we therefore cannot discount the potential for a final 5th wave extension to marginal new highs to align with final 5th wave rallies in the DJIA, RSP and NYA. Note the bearish momentum divergence building across the various equity indices... The US$ remains within a corrective rally as we await a final thrust higher in (c) before the...

Last week, global equities declined sharply from ATH resistance to start the new year with what appears to be an impulsive decline. The risk markets were highly correlated as the US$ (DXY), rates and equities all reversed strongly from year end trends. The DXY led the way as expected with a clearly impulsive rally up off the swing lows. The question is whether this risk reversal is sustainable or only "part" of a larger degree correction within the bigger picture primary trend? Note that with...

Global equity indices extended higher into year end for a hard test of ATH resistance. While the rally is extended, there is no strong evidence of trend exhaustion or a bearish reversal as equities impulse higher into resistance. The US$ decline has extended into 5 waves down and has enough waves in place for what could be the first wave down of a larger degree bear trend. The bond rally extended higher for what is likely wave (iii) of a larger degree wave A corrective rally of primary degree....

NB:- This will be the last update for 2023. Wishing everyone a safe and happy holidays and a very prosperous new year. We will be taking some time off to refresh over the holidays and prepare for the new year. Thank you to all for your support as we look forward to the year ahead 🙂 Last week, equity markets continued higher to tag our price and time targets for a wave 5 rally into ATH resistance. While there are enough waves in place to complete the latest impulsive rally into the holidays,...

Last week, equity markets continued to consolidate below resistance while threatening to extend higher towards 5th wave targets. The troops are now following the generals for a hard test of ATH's. This week holds significant market risks as equities attempt to press higher in the face of key Inflation and Retail Sales data along with the latest FOMC and global CB meetings. The market narrative pricing in future rate cuts is at risk given consistently resilient labor markets. Bond markets...

Last week, the global equity market rally continued unabated with a clear broadening as the troops (Russell, NYA and RSP) finally broke higher to rally impulsively and play "catch-up" to the generals (SPX, Nasdaq and DJIA). This broadening of the rally warns of greater upside potential in a running of the bulls as we now have impulsive rallies across the board. The primary equity indices are all approaching ATH's that should provide significant layered resistance for the bulls - a push to new...

Last week, equities continued to extend higher towards bigger picture resistance in the holiday shortened week. The major indices continue to lead the way with the Nasdaq, S&P and DJIA continuing to impulse higher while the Russell, NYA and RSP rallies appear corrective (so far). These fragmented markets warn of greater risks going forward unless the small caps and broader indices can recapture upside momentum. The strength of this rally continues to warn that the bull market is attempting...

Last week, equity markets continued to rally strongly on the back of a benign CPI and falling rates. The Nasdaq, SPX and DJIA continued to impulse higher while the Russell 2000, RSP and NYA lagged in what appear to be corrective rallies so far. The strength of this rally continues to warn that the bull market is attempting to re-establish itself and push to new ATH's. Bears need to make a stand here or risk being run over by the bulls - pamplona style. Bonds rallied impulsively from recent...

Last week, equity markets extended higher for what appears to be an impulsive rally for wave (a) or (i) of a larger degree advance. Near term, there are enough waves in place to complete 5 waves of the initial impulse so we should be alert to the potential for a corrective retracement. Bonds continue to hold support and are attempting to hammer out important tradable lows but we do NOT yet have confirmation of an impulsive change in trend. The US$ remains well bid and supports the idea of the...

Last week, equities rallied sharply for what is expected to be a relief rally and short covering following completion of the 5 wave decline as warned last week. The initial rally from support is likely to be wave (a) up of a larger degree (a)-(b)-(c) correction. Importantly, both the rates markets and US$ reversed sharply lower (only in 3 waves so far) providing a near term tailwind for stocks as growth and inflationary expectations eased. Our base case for equities is that the bear market has...