The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equity markets continued to rally strongly on the back of a benign CPI and falling rates. The Nasdaq, SPX and DJIA continued to impulse higher while the Russell 2000, RSP and NYA lagged in what appear to be corrective rallies so far. The strength of this rally continues to warn that the bull market is attempting to re-establish itself and push to new ATH's. Bears need to make a stand here or risk being run over by the bulls - pamplona style. Bonds rallied impulsively from recent...

Last week, equity markets extended higher for what appears to be an impulsive rally for wave (a) or (i) of a larger degree advance. Near term, there are enough waves in place to complete 5 waves of the initial impulse so we should be alert to the potential for a corrective retracement. Bonds continue to hold support and are attempting to hammer out important tradable lows but we do NOT yet have confirmation of an impulsive change in trend. The US$ remains well bid and supports the idea of the...

Last week, equities rallied sharply for what is expected to be a relief rally and short covering following completion of the 5 wave decline as warned last week. The initial rally from support is likely to be wave (a) up of a larger degree (a)-(b)-(c) correction. Importantly, both the rates markets and US$ reversed sharply lower (only in 3 waves so far) providing a near term tailwind for stocks as growth and inflationary expectations eased. Our base case for equities is that the bear market has...

Last week global equities extended recent declines into 5 waves to help confirm the bigger picture bearish change in trend. Importantly, the benchmark SPX / ES declined so far as to overlap its wave 1 / A high and confirm a corrective 3 wave rally from the October 2022 lows. The bears have taken control but the near term question is whether the initial 5 waves down is complete or if it extends immediately lower in (iii) of 3 bear nest? Bonds are attempting to hammer out a tradable low while...

Last week, equities reversed sharply lower from resistance as geopolitical risks escalated. This is an important juncture for global risk markets. If equities push to new cycle lows, the corrective decline will be invalidated and bears likely take control from a big picture perspective with a bearish change in trend. Gold and Silver continued to rally impulsively for what is likely the first wave of a larger degree rally in the PM's. Bonds continued to sell-off despite rising geopolitical...

Last week, equities rallied strongly before fading late on the fear of an escalating middle east conflict. The risk markets are at an inflection point. The benchmark SPX / ES is now in a pincer move between the 200 and 50 day sma - we remain prima facie bullish but wary of geopolitical risk (as highlighted last week). Bulls need to clear overhead resistance to maintain bullish momentum - all bullish bets are off below wave (c) of 4 swing support. Gold ripped higher as expected while Crude Oil...

Last week equities declined for a hard test of equality support at the 200 day sma before rebounding late despite hotter than expected NFP data. The bulls now have their line in the sand - global equity indices now have enough waves in place to complete a corrective decline. The onus is now on the bulls to make a stand and hold last week's lows or risk a sharp break lower. While the equity market structure appears prima facie bullish, we need to be mindful of the risks associated with this...

Last week, equities extended their decline into equality support as expected before rebounding late in the week. While there are now enough waves in place to potentially complete a prima facie corrective wave 4 decline, near term bulls should allow for a small degree 5th wave to marginal new lows to help complete the structure. The onus is now on the bears to press and extend this decline through equality in an impuslive red 3rd wave to break support at the 200 day sma. Bulls need to hold this...

Last week equities broke impulsively lower as expected as rates pushed to new cycle highs. Global central banks continued to signal higher rates for longer, putting pressure on equities as we look for a hard test of equality targets and key 200 day sma support. Commodities traded sideways to down as economic growth expectations deteriorated in the face of rising rates. The global bond markets broke to new cycle lows meeting the minimum conditions for a final wave (5) decline as we look for...

Last week, equities rallied correctively before reversing sharply lower on Friday. Bond markets remain under pressure as a stronger US$ coupled with higher energy prices warn of a potential stagflationary environment going forward - key risk to equity markets. Will the goldilocks soft-landing trade be replaced by a stubbornly high cost-push inflation outlook? With the FOMC, SNB, BOE and BOJ all reporting this week, the market will be looking for guidance in near term risks to growth, inflation...