The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week global equities extended recent declines into 5 waves to help confirm the bigger picture bearish change in trend. Importantly, the benchmark SPX / ES declined so far as to overlap its wave 1 / A high and confirm a corrective 3 wave rally from the October 2022 lows. The bears have taken control but the near term question is whether the initial 5 waves down is complete or if it extends immediately lower in (iii) of 3 bear nest? Bonds are attempting to hammer out a tradable low while...

Last week, equities reversed sharply lower from resistance as geopolitical risks escalated. This is an important juncture for global risk markets. If equities push to new cycle lows, the corrective decline will be invalidated and bears likely take control from a big picture perspective with a bearish change in trend. Gold and Silver continued to rally impulsively for what is likely the first wave of a larger degree rally in the PM's. Bonds continued to sell-off despite rising geopolitical...

Last week, equities rallied strongly before fading late on the fear of an escalating middle east conflict. The risk markets are at an inflection point. The benchmark SPX / ES is now in a pincer move between the 200 and 50 day sma - we remain prima facie bullish but wary of geopolitical risk (as highlighted last week). Bulls need to clear overhead resistance to maintain bullish momentum - all bullish bets are off below wave (c) of 4 swing support. Gold ripped higher as expected while Crude Oil...

Last week equities declined for a hard test of equality support at the 200 day sma before rebounding late despite hotter than expected NFP data. The bulls now have their line in the sand - global equity indices now have enough waves in place to complete a corrective decline. The onus is now on the bulls to make a stand and hold last week's lows or risk a sharp break lower. While the equity market structure appears prima facie bullish, we need to be mindful of the risks associated with this...

Last week, equities extended their decline into equality support as expected before rebounding late in the week. While there are now enough waves in place to potentially complete a prima facie corrective wave 4 decline, near term bulls should allow for a small degree 5th wave to marginal new lows to help complete the structure. The onus is now on the bears to press and extend this decline through equality in an impuslive red 3rd wave to break support at the 200 day sma. Bulls need to hold this...

Last week equities broke impulsively lower as expected as rates pushed to new cycle highs. Global central banks continued to signal higher rates for longer, putting pressure on equities as we look for a hard test of equality targets and key 200 day sma support. Commodities traded sideways to down as economic growth expectations deteriorated in the face of rising rates. The global bond markets broke to new cycle lows meeting the minimum conditions for a final wave (5) decline as we look for...

Last week, equities rallied correctively before reversing sharply lower on Friday. Bond markets remain under pressure as a stronger US$ coupled with higher energy prices warn of a potential stagflationary environment going forward - key risk to equity markets. Will the goldilocks soft-landing trade be replaced by a stubbornly high cost-push inflation outlook? With the FOMC, SNB, BOE and BOJ all reporting this week, the market will be looking for guidance in near term risks to growth, inflation...

Last week equity bears held the line at a key inflection point and reversed the prior week's gains to help set up more bearish potential. We remain bearish against these highs as we look for a wave (iii) or (c) decline as part of a larger degree equity market correction. Global equity markets and banks in general are warning of more downside risks from a big picture perspective. Bonds reversed sharply lower after its corrective decline while the US$ extended higher as expected. With CPI and...

Last week, equities rallied more strongly than expected to reclaim the 50 day sma across the board. Our expectation was for a wave (c) rally but the recent strength opens the door to more bullish potential. The question is whether this rally is sustainable given the headwinds of rising rates, higher crude and a stronger US$. The market leading Nasdaq rally is only in 3 waves up of equality so far, and the onus is on the bears to make a stand early this week to reverse last week's rally. We are...

Global equity markets rebounded last week into overhead resistance as bonds held key swing support. This remains our key indicator - will rates break higher in a convincing wave (5) rally or will they pull back to continue a more complex wave (4) correction? Higher rates will likely be a strong headwind for global equity markets. The US$ strength continued but is likely topping as economic indicators favour a relatively strong recovery versus the ROW. Take note of commodity currencies...