The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equities continued to stair-step lower to break 200 day sma support as the Iran conflict escalated. The SPX and Nasdaq is now testing the last line of defence for the bulls (November lows). The risk is a continued waterfall decline on a break of support that accelerates to the downside. The longer this Iran conflict remains unresolved, the greater the risk of stagflationary headwinds of higher rates and energy prices. The bigger picture trend risks turning sharply bearish if support...

Last week, equities rebounded strongly from 200 day sma support but faded for the rest of the week as the Iran conflict escalated (Trump TACO and mixed messages). The major US equity indices remain above key support but risks are growing as the headwinds of higher rates and energy prices take hold. Bulls need to hold key support and extend higher this week or risk a waterfall decline that confirms a major top. Support is support until broken but warning signs abound - caveat emptor. The bond...

Last week, equity markets stair stepped lower as ES tested our 6720 support before rebounding correctively. Over the weekend, the Iran conflict escalated with Crude Oil surging higher prompting a gap down in the ES. Equity markets are now testing secondary support at the 200 day sma and November lows. As warned last week, the risk remains for a waterfall decline that gaps lower and breaks down - that risk remains while todays gap down holds. Bulls last stand so caveat emptor! Bond markets...

Last week, equity markets extended lower as expected but remain range bound from a big picture perspective. Despite the AI blow-off, Software sell-off, Tariff uncertainty and Iran War, equities remain range bound above 200 day sma support. No damage has been done to the bull case but risks remain if key support breaks. This sideways consolidation keeps the door open to a bull market continuation. Bond markets extended higher in the risk-off environment and is now testing layered resistance -...

Last week, equity markets rebounded in what appears to be a counter-trend rally with continued downside risk. We do not have a clearly tradable structure as bulls and bears fight it out and the range bound churn continues. While there are enough waves in place to complete the big picture rally, there is no confirmation of a bearish change in trend given the overlapping corrective decline (so far). Primary trend support for the Nasdaq and SPX remains lower towards the 200 day sma – our line in...

Last week, equity markets failed to extend higher despite the economic tailwinds of stronger employment, softening inflation and lower rates. While there are enough waves in place to complete the 5 wave rally, there is no confirmation of a bearish change in trend given the overlapping corrective decline. Primary trend support for the Nasdaq and SPX remains lower towards the 200 day sma - our line in the sand for the bull / bear case. From last week, "This overlapping churn higher is...

Last week, equity markets corrected lower before rebounding strongly as primary trend support continued to hold. The corrective 3 wave decline and subsequent strong rally keeps the door open to a bull market continuation to new ATH's. Interestingly, the DJIA and Russell continue to lead the late stages of this rally while above 50 day sma trend support. This overlapping churn higher is representative of the late stages of a bull market rally so proceed with caution. Bond markets corrected...

Last week, equities continued to churn higher but the rally was not clearly impulsive as the SPX / ES pushed to marginal new ATH's unconfirmed by the Nasdaq indices (bearish inter-market divergence). The question is whether it formed a rare expanding ending diagonal top or wave (b) headfake top as part of an ongoing bull trend? Importantly, while no key support has been broken the PM reversal appears to leading to a liquidation of risk. Bond markets remain range bound with a bearish bias while...

Last week, equity markets corrected lower with no confirmation of a bearish change in trend. The benchmark SPX continues to hold 50 day sma trend support and retains the bullish potential to extend higher. The key Nasdaq indices remain within triangle consolidations with the potential for a wave 5 of (5) rally to new ATH's. The bull market rally in DJIA and Russell also appear incomplete. While Trump continues to TACO with empty threats, the bullish market bias continues. Bitcoin remains...

Last week, equity markets extended marginally higher but the overlapping nature of the rally warns that the bull trend is exhausting in an ending diagonal (wedge) top. The benchmark SPX / ES has enough waves in place to potentially complete the 2025 rally but there is no confirmation of a tradable top. We remain alert to the potential for trend exhaustion and bear reversal. It is important to note that the bull trend remains intact while above the 50 day sma trend support. The Nasdaq indices...