The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, US equities turned sharply lower from resistance but the initial declines are not yet clearly impulsive. The Nasdaq indices in particular only show 3 waves down of equality into support and needs to break lower to help confirm the bigger picture bear case (reversal risk). Our likely tell. Last week's macro themes of CB's slowing the rate of tightening coupled with rumours of China ending covid lockdowns, led to a sharp reversal in the US$, steeper yield curve and subsequent rally in...

Equities ran higher last week as expected and are now entering respective sell zones for a potential wave (ii) top. This week will be a key inflection point for global equity markets - bears need to make a stand and reverse last week's rally or risk a bigger picture change in trend. While global bonds are attempting to hammer out a low, the DXY decline appears corrective with no confirmation (yet) of a change in trend. A strong US$ remains negative for global risk. The FOMC meeting this week...

Our big picture outlook remains unchanged - we are in a global bear market in equities. We continue to see impulsive declines and corrective rallies, lower highs and lower lows - the very definition of a bear market trend. Risks abound as global CB's raise rates and reduce liquidity in this sticky inflationary environment - the equity market continues to fight the Fed and is NOT pricing in the bear case. "Hoping" for a pivot is not a strategy. Last week, the SPX / ES held key near term lows...

Last week saw wild volatility in global asset markets as CPI remained elevated and rates continued to rise across the board. Falling bonds, falling equities and a compressed VIX is likely the combination that causes maximum pain to all investment strategies. The US$ strength reflects the best house in a bad street. We are patiently awaiting evidence of a top in rates and the DXY. We continue to see fiscal authorities fighting monetary authorities as evidenced by the debacle in England. Markets...

Last week, global equities rallied strongly before fading badly as bears regained control to test support (again). The Fed remains resolute as it continues to signal higher rates for longer resulting in reduced liquidity and greater uncertainty for risk assets. Global rates continue to rise across the board as the strong US$ exports inflation in a highly indebted world. OPEC+ also lit a fire under the Oil price with production cuts. A strong US$, higher rates and high energy prices all warn of...

Last week, global equities extended their declines to new cycle lows despite interventions by the Central Banks of Japan, China and England. The Fed's strong hawkish signalling reaffirms the bearish outlook for global risk. The Fed won't stop until long rates stop rising and they get back ahead of the curve. Global equity markets remain bearish until proven otherwise. The SPX / ES continued to stair step lower to new cycle lows for what appears to be a wave (iii) decline of multiple degrees....

Markets remain in a big picture bear market. Equities extended lower last week to tag our initial downside targets with a hard test of the June lows. It's make or break time. The US$ broke to new cycle highs across the board with the Euro and Pound breaking to new lows. Bonds continued to sell-off in what we expect to be a final 5th wave decline. SPX Bear Case Daily The SPX / ES continued its decline and is now testing the June lows. Make or break at major support. Best case for the Bulls is a...

Last week, equities turned lower from highlighted fib resistance following the hotter than expected CPI report. It all comes back to the Fed - as CPI remains elevated, the Fed will keep raising rates to constrain the long end of the curve in a highly indebted world. Markets had been "hoping" for a moderating CPI so the Fed would pull back from its aggressive tightening regime. Traders are underestimating market risks here - the Fed will continue to tighten until the market breaks... only then...

Equity markets rebounded strongly late last week as expected after completing what appears to be an impulsive decline for wave (i) or (a) down. Bears need to make a stand this week to reverse last week's gains and press for a sharp decline in wave (iii) or (c) down. Unfortunately, the recent decline is not clearly impulsive calling into question the immediate bear case and opening the door for the bullish green wave C rally. Near term inflection point with CPI on deck. Markets are warning of a...

Last week, equity markets confirmed our bearish outlook with what appears to be an impulsive decline from recent swing highs. We correctly identified the previous rally as an (a)-(b)-(c) correction within an ongoing bear market. Risk remains to the downside as previous macro tailwinds (Fed liquidity) turn into headwinds (Fed tightening) amidst a global stagflationary environment. Historically high debt levels coupled with rising rates and rising consumer prices (including energy) will likely...