The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Global equities rebounded last week after holding near term wave (v) or 5 support. The big picture market structure remains bearish as our expectation is that January's ATH completed the supercycle rally from the 2009 lows. Minimum targets for this bear market decline is the March 2020 lows - buyer beware as this is no longer a bull market. From last week's update "Bulls need to make a stand early this week or risk an accelerated decline. Just be aware that “if” this decline is an ending...

The bear market trend was finally confirmed last week with 5 waves down from recent supercycle ATH's. This latest decline confirms our view that the bigger picture market trend is now bearish. Global CB's have reversed course and started tightening aggressively to fight inflation (rising prices are now a political problem) - global macro trends are bearish for risk assets so buyer beware... SPX Monthly semi-log The SPX / ES broke sharply lower last week to help confirm the bigger picture...

Global equities reversed sharply lower last week after failing at overhead resistance. Most major indices are now retesting major swing lows and threatening to break down in wave 5 or a more bearish red wave (iii) of 3 (more akin to a crash). ANY new swing low invalidates the big picture bull case (corrective 3 waves down) and confirms the bigger picture bear market trend. Given the corrective rally up from recent swing lows, bears remain in control until proven otherwise. Rising inflation,...

Last week, equities extended gains before fading later in the week in what we expect to be part of a corrective rally within a larger degree bear market. Despite only 3 waves down of equality from ATH's, we are leaning towards the idea that the big picture bull market trend is over. Bears need to break the May lows to help confirm the bigger picture change in trend to down but it's too early to call. The macro environment of rising rates, stagflation and central bank tightening continue to...

Last week, equities rebounded strongly after holding key near term support and breaking through bearish trend channels. The Russell 2000 provided the "tell" last week as we looked for "at least a counter-trend rally" after hammering out a tradable low. Prima facie, most equity indices have only declined in a corrective 3 waves of equality from their respective ATH's - the bears haven't proven anything while these swing lows hold. Bears need to break these lows to help confirm 5 waves down and...

Last week, equities remained under pressure with a hard test of equality targets across the board followed by a last gasp attempt to hammer out a low on Friday. While there is no confirmation of a tradable low, the Russell 2000 may be warning of a near term bullish turning point. Rates and the US$ appear to have topped out near term and are now correcting lower for what is likely to be a 4th wave. Prima facie, most equity indices have only declined in 3 waves of equality from their respective...

Last week, equities continued their decline into equality targets as expected before rebounding late in the week. So far, we have 3 waves down of equality within corrective trend channels (bears haven't proven anything yet). With minimum downside targets met, this is the last stand for the bull market trend. We have our doubts as risks abound. A break of last week's lows likely puts the final nail in the coffin of this multi-decade bull market rally. The Euro is testing multi-year lows and is...

Last week, equities extended lower in what is likely to be a larger degree wave C or 3 impulsive decline. Despite markets being oversold, there is an immediate risk of an accelerated wave (iii) of 3 decline on a clear break of last week's lows. Markets are beginning to embrace the stagflationary outlook with high rates, rising prices and slowing economic growth. The US$ remains in a strong bullish trend while bond markets continue to sell-off. The SPX / ES continued to impulse lower as...

Last week, US equities declined impulsively for a hard test of recent swing lows. The Nasdaq and Russell made new cycle lows while the SPX and DJIA are yet to confirm new lows. The decline appears incomplete and the bear trend remains intact but equities may be completing small degree 5th waves in the near term. The US$ bull trend continued as expected and the DXY is now testing multi-year highs while the Euro is testing multi-year lows. The bond market selloff continued late in the week with...

Last week, equities turned sharply lower as expected after a counter-trend rally into resistance and now face a key test of structural support. The bears took hold of the markets late last week and are likely set for a hard test of major swing lows. Make or break for equity markets early this week as bears look to press their advantage for red wave (iii) of 3 down. US$ strength and rising rates continued while commodities failed at the first hurdle. The benchmark SPX / ES turned sharply lower...