The Mars Market Update — Live Research

From last week's update... "Prima facie, the trend still appears bullish with impulsive rallies and corrective declines but two-way risks are significant given where we are in the cycle." - the bears fumbled and the bulls ran. The door is open for a santa rally into...

Last week, global equities continued to decline as expected BUT the structure of the decline for the major indices remains mixed. While the decline from ATH's in the DJIA and Russell 2000 appear impulsive, the decline in the SPX and Nasdaq is more overlapping and less...

Last week saw a sharp decline in risk assets across the board after completing its latest impulsive 5 wave rally. Friday's sharp decline was preceded by a clear warning of an impulsive 5 waves down from the ES and NQ marginal new ATH's as tweeted (nice bearish setup)....

Last week saw growing intermarket divergence as the Nasdaq and SPX pushed to new ATH's while the DJIA and Russell faded badly. Risk remains favoured while long rates are contained despite (and maybe because of) the US$ continuing its strong bullish break-out....

From a big picture perspective we are approaching a major long term top. How far can the bulls run? How long can this cycle extend? The key to reversing this trend is long rates - rising long rates that force the global CB's to finally end the QE experiment. Only then...

Last week the Russell 2000 and DJIA finally broke out of congestion to new ATH's confirming our view of "unresolved upside". Global equities rallied strongly across the board (except for Emerging Markets) supported by a dovish Fed and lower rates. This is a seasonally...

Global equities extended rallies last week despite rising short rates and a flattening yield curve. We are still waiting for the DJIA and Russell 2000 to confirm 5 waves up by breaking out of this congestion. This week, we are looking for a potential end to the...

Last week the equity markets cleared our near term inflection point and rallied directly to test ATH's. While we continue to look for new wave 5 highs for this cycle, we are still not convinced that this immediate rally is sustainable. No index has clearly broken out...

Last week saw a strong recovery from equities after a corrective 3 waves down from the ATH's as posted and tweeted. We are now at a near term inflection point for the broader market structure. Our base case remains that this decline is all or part of a corrective 4th...

The bulls retain the ball but risks are rising! From a big picture perspective most global equities would look best with a final 5th wave to new ATH's to complete the rally from the 2009 major wave IV lows. For perspective, we are looking to complete 5 waves up of...