The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Global equities extended rallies last week despite rising short rates and a flattening yield curve. We are still waiting for the DJIA and Russell 2000 to confirm 5 waves up by breaking out of this congestion. This week, we are looking for a potential end to the rallies in commodity currencies while Crude Oil and Gasoline appear to be topping in 5th waves despite (and probably because of) bullish extremes. All eyes are on the Fed this week to confirm its hawkish / dovish outlook given the rise...

Last week the equity markets cleared our near term inflection point and rallied directly to test ATH's. While we continue to look for new wave 5 highs for this cycle, we are still not convinced that this immediate rally is sustainable. No index has clearly broken out with the Nasdaq clearly lagging. The DXY remains stalled below resistance while commodities continue extend higher in 5th waves. Importantly, all equity markets would look best with a clear wave 5 to new ATH's to help complete...

Last week saw a strong recovery from equities after a corrective 3 waves down from the ATH's as posted and tweeted. We are now at a near term inflection point for the broader market structure. Our base case remains that this decline is all or part of a corrective 4th wave with new ATH's required for a final 5th wave from the March 2020 lows. Commodities continue to rally while the yield curve flattens globally, reflecting our long term view of stagflation. It is difficult to see equities...

The bulls retain the ball but risks are rising! From a big picture perspective most global equities would look best with a final 5th wave to new ATH's to complete the rally from the 2009 major wave IV lows. For perspective, we are looking to complete 5 waves up of multiple degrees. While we have no confirmation of a bearish major reversal yet, what if we're wrong and the market has already topped? It would be prudent to buy cheap insurance to cover the bear case. SPX Monthly semi-log The ES /...

Last week we saw a continued selloff in equities as markets digest the potential for an ongoing stagflationary environment. The ES and NQ made marginal new cycle lows before reversing sharply higher on Friday. The rally on Friday is only in 3 waves so far and needs to extend higher in 5 waves on Monday to help confirm a near term change in trend. The US$ continued to impulse higher, breaking through overhead resistance while bonds traded sideways. Crude Oil continues to press overhead...

Last week saw equities decline sharply in 3 waves on a technical break of support before rallying for the remainder of the week. It now appears that we have a corrective 3 waves down from ATH's and an impulsive rally up off the lows. The question is whether this latest rally is part of a larger correction or the start of another impulsive rally through new ATH's? This latest rally calls into question the potential for a larger degree 4th wave - either way, the bigger picture bullish bias...

Last week, equities continued to stair step lower and finally broke layered support at Friday's close. Equities remain bearish while below Friday's highs with strong downside potential given this break of structural support. From a big picture perspective, we continue to see this rally up from the March 2020 lows as a final 5th wave of the impulsive rally from the March 2009 lows. The question is whether we have completed all of (5) or wave 3 of (5) as the Russell 2000 suggests. The US$ is...

Last week we saw a pullback in equities as expected confirming recent non-confirmation highs. Our primary indicator of market trend, the SPX / ES, has fallen back towards key trend support and the 50 day sma - it's make or break time (again). While the decline from ATH's is not clearly impulsive, the intraday series of lower lows and lower highs is warning of a potential waterfall decline if there is a sustained break of our key structural trend support. Remember, support is support until...

Equities continue to hold gains with no evidence of a tradable top. While the Nasdaq and SPX rallies are extended, the DJIA and Russell continue to underperform and require new ATH's to complete potential ending waves. The US$ fell sharply as expected with the USDSGD and USDCNH tagging downside targets. Bonds were unable to break higher and risk downside follow through. The DJIA / YM continues to follow the ending diagonal playbook and would look best with a final impulsive wave higher for...

Last week, the SPX and Nasdaq indices pushed to new ATH's as expected while the DJIA and Russell rebounded strongly from support. There are now enough waves in place to complete near term rallies in the former while the latter still need new ATH's to help confirm a longer term top. The US$ continued to decline sharply from resistance but so far the decline is in 3 waves and needs to extend lower in 5 waves to help confirm a bigger picture change in trend. The weaker US$ and Powell support...