The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, the ES and NQ corrected lower into 50 day sma support before rallying to end the week. The Russell 2000 and DJIA held support and rallied late while the US$ pushed higher towards equality targets. Bonds consolidated gains after last week's rally. We continue to see the ES and NQ in topping patterns (no confirmation of a top yet) while the Russell requires a bigger picture 5th wave higher. Will we see a rotation back towards small cap growth? The US$ is approaching an important...

Last week, the grind higher in global equities continued with the SPX and Nasdaq indices leading the way while the small cap Russell continued to lag. The US$ remains range bound while bonds rebounded from equality targets. The PM's bounced from near term downside targets but remain range bound from a bigger picture perspective. The SPX / ES continued to grind higher as it wedges into new ATH's. We are looking for evidence of trend exhaustion as momentum indicators have NOT confirmed new ATH's...

Late last week saw a sharp reversal in the US$ and rates while global equities continue to climb a wall of worry. "If" rates rise from here and the reflation trades re-asserts itself, we should see a rotation from the Nasdaq indices towards the small caps (Russell). PM's fell sharply as suspected while industrial commodities remain mixed. The SPX / ES continues to trend higher as momentum indicators diverge. Whilst there is no evidence of trend exhaustion (higher highs and higher lows), "IF"...

Last week saw equity market bulls continue to press new ATH's but the trend appears to be exhausting. We still do not have clear evidence of a tradable top but momentum divergence is warning of an impending market reversal. The SPX and Nasdaq appear to be topping while the DJIA and Russell would look best with a strong wave 5 higher. Bonds failed to confirm a bearish reversal and remain well bid as markets embrace the slowing growth narrative. Bitcoin tagged initial wave (c) targets from where...

Last week, equities rebounded strongly from our key support and pushed to marginal new ATH's. The bullish trend of higher highs and higher lows remains unbroken and despite deteriorating momentum, there is no evidence of trend exhaustion. With the FOMC due on Wednesday, markets are counting on a more dovish outlook to help prop up this liquidity fuelled rally - any disappointment will likely see a sharp bearish reversal. The Nasdaq and SPX pushed to new ATH's but the rally has not been...

Last week saw a continuation of the recent reflation trade unwind with commodity currencies weakening, bonds rallying, curve flattening and the small caps rolling over (again). We warned last week that the Russell 2000 only showed 3 waves up of equality, leaving it vulnerable to another extension lower if bulls couldn't make a stand. This is an important week for the reflation trade as we look for a turn in the US$, bonds and Russell. This week, we are keeping a close eye on AUD, CAD, NOK and...

The global bull market continues to extend higher as global rates and the US$ remain range bound. Commodity markets remain in a topping process and likely nearing the end of their initial impulsive rally from the 2020 lows. The Russell 2000 held bullish near term support opening the door for a continued impulsive rally. We continue to see corrective declines and impulsive rallies keeping the primary bullish equity trends intact. The Russell 2000 / RTY declined in a corrective 3 waves of...

Last week started with a strong bullish reversal in equities after a corrective 3 waves down (as tweeted on Monday) that extended higher throughout the week. The ES and NQ pushed to new ATH's while the RTY and YM are threatening to break higher. The Russell 2000 / RTY continues to show the clearest structure as it once again tests the top of its range - can it finally breakout or will resistance hold? Importantly, the US$ and bond markets faded following the Fed's flip-flop, providing near...

Last week, the Fed signalled a slight change in policy, sparking a reversal in risk assets led by curve flattening. We saw the US$ spike higher out of congestion, equities fall from resistance and PM's reverse lower. The charts warned of a risk reversal and the Fed delivered on cue. Near term bears need to see downside impulsive follow through to help confirm a change in the near term trend of risk assets. There are sixteen Fed speakers on deck this week! Will they be talking down the change...