The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Primary macro market trends remain intact - global equity markets extended gains while the US$ and bonds turned lower as expected keeping a strong bid under industrial commodities. PM's remain mixed but the door is now open to a more immediately bullish outlook. Equity Markets The near term SPX / ES count has changed. The latest equity market rally has invalidated the previous wave count as wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Our most likely scenario is that the SPX / ES is in wave (v) of 3...

Last week we correctly identified the corrective nature of the recent market decline which saw equities rally to new ATH's. Bond markets extended declines as expected with curve steepeners being the primary drivers. Industrial commodities like Crude Oil extended gains as expected while PM's whipsawed. The US$ has only rallied in a corrective 3 waves and is threatening to turn lower across the board. Primary market trends remain intact for now... Our key market risk indicator (SPX / ES) pushed...

Last week saw a pullback in global risk assets but so far, key markets such as the SPX have only declined in 3 waves of equality. The rally in bonds and US$ appear corrective with more downside likely to come near term. Industrial commodities continued their corrective declines with no evidence of a sustainable top. This will be an important week for market to maintain bullish momentum after 3 waves down of equality or finally capitulate lower. We will update clients if we see confirming...

Primary trends remain unchanged - global equities remain in 5th wave extend and pretend with no evidence of a tradable top, Bitcoin declined in 3 waves of equality, the bond market rally appears corrective (especially the long end), the DXY declined from 4th wave resistance while PM's remain in a larger corrective decline. The weaker US$ continues to provide support for rising industrial commodities. We see no change to the primary risk-on macro trends. SPX Monthly Global equities remain in...

Last week saw the global risk markets pause to digest recent gains as we saw pullbacks in equities, commodities, the Euro and rates. We do not have confirmation of a change in trend for risk assets as recent declines appear corrective. Bullish sentiment remains at extremes with added fiscal spending and central bank commitment to low rates providing markets support. The SPX / ES consolidated gains last week in what appears to be a corrective decline. The primary bull trend remains in tact as...

Last week, equity bulls extended gains after reversing sharply lower on Monday. The inability of bears to follow through saw markets squeeze to new ATH's. Most equity markets remain bullish until proven otherwise. The US$ is attempting to bottom in wave (iii) or 5 as we look for evidence of a bullish reversal. The DXY remains short of ideal downside targets. Bonds broke sharply lower from our anticipated triangle with no evidence of a tradable low. The question is whether it continues to...

Please note: due to the upcoming holidays, our next update will be published in the new year. Wishing all our clients and their families a happy Holiday season and prosperous New Year! Last week saw the continuation of our primary market trends - strong equities, weak US$, strong commodities and pinned rates. It is important to note that we see the US$ decline as a key driver of these trends and that it is in an ending 5th wave from the March highs. Our equity market analysis also implies that...

Last week, global equities stalled at trend resistance but the decline is NOT clearly impulsive and failed to break any meaningful support. The DXY traded sideways but the trend remains lower in wave 5 of (C) until proven otherwise. Bonds recovered but only in a corrective 3 waves of equality as the long end continued to underperform. Industrial commodities continued to push higher while PM's failed to see any upside follow through and remain range bound. The SPX / ES faded back below trend...

Global equities continue to grind higher in this risk-on rally and there is no evidence of a tradable top. The DXY broke major trend support and extended lower in what is expected to be a 5th wave decline. Commodities rallied across the board, driven by the weaker US$, rising rates and hopes of a reflationary rebound. At a time when the bull market continues to extend and pretend and retail traders pour into the option markets, it is important to stay focussed on the big picture wave...