The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week saw another corrective decline in US equity markets within the bigger picture uptrend. The US$ pushed higher across the board in this risk off environment while rates were stable. Crude Oil confirmed its impulsive decline in 5 waves before recovering later in the week potentially setting up the next wave lower. This will likely have near term bearish implications for broader risk assets. This will be a holiday shortened week with NFP's so we are on alert for some near term...

Last week saw most equity indices push to marginal new highs before reversing lower. Markets may have topped in primary wave 3 but we do NOT have confirmation of a change in trend. Only the decline in ES appears impulsive while the RTY appears corrective. The Nasdaq was unable to break back above resistance as the Fed's "status quo" meeting saw rates continue to rise as markets call the Fed's bluff. We also saw a sharp reversal in Crude Oil that may be signalling more risk off ahead if we see...

Global equities extended gains last week as the risk-on environment continued. The reflation trade remains the focus as rates rise alongside commodities, helping push the Russell 2000 and DJIA through new ATH's as expected. The Nasdaq indices continue to lag with rates rising in the US. The US$ churned sideways in what is likely to be a 4th wave correction. All eyes will be on the Fed this week as bonds continued their impulsive decline. Rates and Gold are at important corrective inflection...

Last week started with a sharp corrective rally and continued wave (c) decline that met our downside targets. We have enough waves in place to complete the latest corrective decline. The question is whether the market pushes to new ATH's in a 5th wave or continues sideways to down for a larger degree wave 4. The nature of this rally (corrective or impulsive) will help answer that question. We see no evidence of a longer term top in global equities as bulls remain in control. Bond markets...

Last week we got the correction we were looking for after completion of another impulsive rally in equities. Importantly, while the decline in ES and RTY is clearly corrective, the decline in the Nasdaq indices appears impulsive. The bond market rout continued, dragging long duration risk assets lower with the TLT capitulating into structured support. The US$ reversed sharply higher late in the week, invalidating the near term bearish outlook - this resulted in a coincident topping in...

Last week we got the SPX / ES small degree 5th wave triangle thrust to marginal new highs as expected then a subsequent corrective decline that appears incomplete. The US$ turned lower as expected with the exception of the USDJPY that rallied from support to potentially complete an impulsive 5 waves up (potential change in trend). Bonds extended lower as expected with rates rising across the board while industrial commodities rallied. The Crypto buying frenzy continued. Equity Markets So far,...

Primary macro market trends remain intact - global equity markets extended gains while the US$ and bonds turned lower as expected keeping a strong bid under industrial commodities. PM's remain mixed but the door is now open to a more immediately bullish outlook. Equity Markets The near term SPX / ES count has changed. The latest equity market rally has invalidated the previous wave count as wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Our most likely scenario is that the SPX / ES is in wave (v) of 3...

Last week we correctly identified the corrective nature of the recent market decline which saw equities rally to new ATH's. Bond markets extended declines as expected with curve steepeners being the primary drivers. Industrial commodities like Crude Oil extended gains as expected while PM's whipsawed. The US$ has only rallied in a corrective 3 waves and is threatening to turn lower across the board. Primary market trends remain intact for now... Our key market risk indicator (SPX / ES) pushed...

Last week saw a pullback in global risk assets but so far, key markets such as the SPX have only declined in 3 waves of equality. The rally in bonds and US$ appear corrective with more downside likely to come near term. Industrial commodities continued their corrective declines with no evidence of a sustainable top. This will be an important week for market to maintain bullish momentum after 3 waves down of equality or finally capitulate lower. We will update clients if we see confirming...

Primary trends remain unchanged - global equities remain in 5th wave extend and pretend with no evidence of a tradable top, Bitcoin declined in 3 waves of equality, the bond market rally appears corrective (especially the long end), the DXY declined from 4th wave resistance while PM's remain in a larger corrective decline. The weaker US$ continues to provide support for rising industrial commodities. We see no change to the primary risk-on macro trends. SPX Monthly Global equities remain in...