The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, global equity markets extended higher as expected and the SPX now has enough waves in place to potentially complete the 2025 rally. We are now alert to the potential for trend exhaustion and bear reversal. It is important to note that the bull trend remains intact while above the 50 day sma trend support and can always extend higher. The Nasdaq indices will likely be key this week as we look for a 5th wave triangle breakout - a strong break to new ATH's in wave 5 would likely drag...

This week’s Update focuses on the market’s primary trend to the exclusion of micro counts given the unreliable nature of the low volume holiday period. Global risk markets continued to consolidate over the holiday period in low volume choppy trading conditions. The primary bull market trend for equity markets remains intact despite the Nasdaq indices and Mag 7 lagging the broader indices. The inter-market divergences are warning of deteriorating momentum but the SPX rally appears incomplete....

Last week, equity markets extended lower in what appears to be a complex correction but the risk is that a major double top is in place for the SPX. While no damage has been done to the bull case, warning signs are growing as markets reversed lower from marginal new ATH's led by the semiconductors - the leader of this rally until now. This is a key inflection point for risk markets. The short term wave counts highlight the risk for both bulls and bears so this week's price action becomes...

Last week, equities corrected lower as expected for what we expect to be a wave (ii) of 5 consolidation into 50 day sma support. Our base case remains unchanged for a wave (iii) of 5 rally to new ATH's into year end. What is concerning is that the Nasdaq leaders started to lag as the DJIA and Russell pushed to new ATH's (warning of inter-market divergence). Bulls need to make a stand this week to reverse last week's decline and push to new ATH's into year end. The alternative is a failed 5th...

Last week, equity markets extended higher to help confirm the impulsive rally from recent swing lows and set up a Santa Claus rally into year end. All major indices remain bullish while above recent swing lows as we look for a 5th wave extension through new ATH’s to potentially complete the primary bull trend from the April lows. From a big picture perspective, this years' rally is likely an ending wave 5 of (5) so we should be alert to the potential for a major market top. The bond markets...

Last week, equity markets rallied strongly from key support to help set up a potential Santa Claus rally into year end. All major indices remain bullish while above recent swing lows as we look for a 5th wave extension through new ATH's to potentially complete the primary bull trend from the April lows. From a big picture perspective, this years rally is likely an ending wave 5 of (5) so we should be alert to a potential major bear reversal. The bond markets remain range bound within a big...

Last week, equity markets continued to trade sideways to down for a hard test of key support for this complex wave 4 corrective retracement. Welcome to Thanksgiving Jeopardy - while the market has held key support, the structure of the decline is no longer "clearly" corrective and is warning of more bearish potential. The big picture question is whether equity markets completed a wave 4 corrective retracement (bull flag) and now rallies to new ATH's in wave 5 of (5) into year-end (Santa rally)...

Last week, equity markets continued to trade sideways to down as the distribution and corrective consolidation continutes. The primary trend remains bullish within a wave 4 corrective consolidation before a final wave 5 of (5) rally into year end. Inter-market divergences continued as the DJIA made new ATH's while the Nasdaq and Russell extended lower for deeper corrective retracements. So far, key risk assets including equities and crypto remain in bullish uptrends but risks are building as...

Last week, equity markets corrected lower towards key trend channel support at the 50 day sma before rebounding strongly. The primary trend remains bullish as we look for a wave 4 corrective consolidation before a final wave 5 of (5) rally into year end. So far, key risk assets including equities and crypto remain in bullish uptrends despite increasingly bearish momentum divergence across the board. The bond markets continue to stair step lower for a test of near term support while the US$...

Last week, equity markets continued to rally to new ATH's before consolidating later in the week. The near term rally appears incomplete as we look for a push to marginal new highs towards 7000 on the S&P. This equity market rally is extremely extended and overdue for a corrective consolidation before a final rally to new ATH's into year end. Near term, we remain wary of the increasingly bearish momentum divergence across the major indices. Bitcoin is at risk of breaking key trend support...