The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equities corrected lower as expected for what we expect to be a wave (ii) of 5 consolidation into 50 day sma support. Our base case remains unchanged for a wave (iii) of 5 rally to new ATH's into year end. What is concerning is that the Nasdaq leaders started to lag as the DJIA and Russell pushed to new ATH's (warning of inter-market divergence). Bulls need to make a stand this week to reverse last week's decline and push to new ATH's into year end. The alternative is a failed 5th...

Last week, equity markets extended higher to help confirm the impulsive rally from recent swing lows and set up a Santa Claus rally into year end. All major indices remain bullish while above recent swing lows as we look for a 5th wave extension through new ATH’s to potentially complete the primary bull trend from the April lows. From a big picture perspective, this years' rally is likely an ending wave 5 of (5) so we should be alert to the potential for a major market top. The bond markets...

Last week, equity markets rallied strongly from key support to help set up a potential Santa Claus rally into year end. All major indices remain bullish while above recent swing lows as we look for a 5th wave extension through new ATH's to potentially complete the primary bull trend from the April lows. From a big picture perspective, this years rally is likely an ending wave 5 of (5) so we should be alert to a potential major bear reversal. The bond markets remain range bound within a big...

Last week, equity markets continued to trade sideways to down for a hard test of key support for this complex wave 4 corrective retracement. Welcome to Thanksgiving Jeopardy - while the market has held key support, the structure of the decline is no longer "clearly" corrective and is warning of more bearish potential. The big picture question is whether equity markets completed a wave 4 corrective retracement (bull flag) and now rallies to new ATH's in wave 5 of (5) into year-end (Santa rally)...

Last week, equity markets continued to trade sideways to down as the distribution and corrective consolidation continutes. The primary trend remains bullish within a wave 4 corrective consolidation before a final wave 5 of (5) rally into year end. Inter-market divergences continued as the DJIA made new ATH's while the Nasdaq and Russell extended lower for deeper corrective retracements. So far, key risk assets including equities and crypto remain in bullish uptrends but risks are building as...

Last week, equity markets corrected lower towards key trend channel support at the 50 day sma before rebounding strongly. The primary trend remains bullish as we look for a wave 4 corrective consolidation before a final wave 5 of (5) rally into year end. So far, key risk assets including equities and crypto remain in bullish uptrends despite increasingly bearish momentum divergence across the board. The bond markets continue to stair step lower for a test of near term support while the US$...

Last week, equity markets continued to rally to new ATH's before consolidating later in the week. The near term rally appears incomplete as we look for a push to marginal new highs towards 7000 on the S&P. This equity market rally is extremely extended and overdue for a corrective consolidation before a final rally to new ATH's into year end. Near term, we remain wary of the increasingly bearish momentum divergence across the major indices. Bitcoin is at risk of breaking key trend support...

Last week, the equity market melt up continued as the rally extended directly to new ATH's after holding key trend support at the 50 day sma. The latest rally appears to be a wave (v) of 3 extension as the primary bull trend continues. The big picture rally appears incomplete and would still look best with a wave 4 corrective decline and ending wave 5 of (5) rally into year end. Despite the increasingly bearish momentum divergence, the "everything" rally continues to extend higher with no...

Last week, equity markets traded sideways to down within what appears to be a bullish triangle consolidation. There is no evidence of a long term tradable top as we look for the bull trend to continue higher in wave 5 of (5) once this wave 4 correction is complete. Crypto markets led by Bitcoin continued to decline into key 200 day sma support from where the bulls must make a stand - the potential remains for an ending wave 5 of (5) rally. The bond markets pushed higher for a test of the top...

Last week, the equity market bull trend finally exhausted and reversed sharply lower on a late announcement of further Trump Tariffs. Forewarned is forearmed as we were warning of the extended nature of this rally and bearish momentum divergence. Equities declined sharply on Friday to tag initial support at the 50 day sma from where we would expect to see bulls attempt to make a stand. This anticipated decline is likely only wave (a) down of a larger degree wave 4 corrective retracement. While...