The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Bulls fumble badly as markets flip to risk-off. No evidence of a tradable low as near term support breaks. Last week, global markets saw a risk-off reversal as the proposed 3rd wave momentum driven rally failed (as tweeted). Last week's decline likely confirmed an a-b-c rally which opens the door for more bearish interpretations that complicates the outlook. Bonds confirmed our bullish outlook while the US$ saw a bullish reversal above critical support. The intermediate trend for risk assets...

The global equity market melt-up continued as the Nasdaq finally made new ATH's. This latest market rally appears to be a 3rd wave of an impulse. Friday's NFP driven rally invalidated many near term bearish momentum divergences as markets gapped higher. The US$, Bonds and PM's all sold off as expected while the risk-on rally took hold. Industrial commodities continued to extend gains with no evidence of a tradable top. The market is embracing this liquidity driven rally - only a close back...

Our big picture market outlook remains unchanged - we are looking for an impulsive 5 wave rally to new ATH's to complete the post-2009 rally. Deteriorating economic fundamentals, social mood and demographics coupled with historic system-wide leverage present the worst investment environment I have witnessed - central banks are holding the markets together with duct tape and a bazooka. Party like it's 1999 but this will not end well. SPX Weekly Near term, the global equity market rally...

Last week, global equity markets rebounded strongly following a corrective 3 wave decline testing recent cycle highs. Despite the negative macro economic news, central bank liquidity continues to support this risk-on environment. Rates and the US$ remain trapped within an intermediate term wave (b) triangle as we await a wave (c) thrust. Precious metals are showing signs of fatigue as bulls embrace an equities led recovery. The central bank solution to this COVID-19 disruption as been...

Last week, equities corrected lower from recent swing highs as expected with minimum downside targets met. The question is whether the corrective decline is complete for 2/B and markets push higher in wave 3/C or just "part" of a larger corrective decline? The US dollar and Bonds remain range bound as Fed printing continues to suppress volatility. The flood of liquidity lifts all boats as commodities ripped higher late last week - investors and traders alike are chasing risk assets despite...

Equity markets rebounded strongly last week led by FAAMG as the Nasdaq indices pushed to new cycle highs. The broader indices remain below prior swing highs opening the door to a bearish non-confirmation - bears need to make a stand here to reverse last week's gains as part of the intermediate term correction. From a bigger picture perspective, equities remain largely bullish given the impulsive rally off the March lows. Bonds, PM's and DXY all remain range bound and undecided if the Fed's...

Last week saw multiple equity markets top out in 5 waves from the March lows and reverse sharply lower. We are looking for a 3 wave correction before a resumption of the bigger picture uptrend. This decline is likely wave (a) of an a-b-c correction targeting 38.2%-61.8% fib support of the March rally. We are neutral bonds and the US dollar from a big picture perspective. Near term, we should see a continued correction of global equity indices, risk-off bid for the US dollar, gold and bonds....

Last week, global equities declined from measured resistance but failed to break meaningful support. So far, the equity rally is in 3 waves - any trade above the wave (c) highs will change the rally into a 5 wave impulse - this is important! Any near term push to new cycle highs will indicate that the bigger picture trend has turned up and the bullish case for new ATH's becomes preferred. As tweeted on Wednesday, the SPX / ES only declined to minimum fib support and turned higher. Bears need...

Last week, US equities continued to extend gains with the ES / SPX finally tagging equality targets. Our base case is for a near term top in equities followed by a resumption of the bigger picture downtrend. The alternate bull case is for a continued impulse rally to new ATH's - we are at a near term inflection point for equities. Crude Oil continued its slide while gold and silver faded from overbought extremes. Bonds appear sticky to the upside while the US dollar remains range bound as the...

Late last week the Fed announced further funding measures to effectively provide a bridging loan to US corporates to help carry them through this severe demand shock triggered by the Coronavirus shut down. The Fed is doing what it can to ensure a basically functioning financial system and provide banks with sufficient balance sheet capacity to lend to the real economy. These are extraordinary times requiring extraordinary measures from global central banks. The challenge is that the Fed cannot...