The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Hope springs eternal. Trump kicked the trade war can down the road with "promises" of a deal; the Fed quietly re-started QE and committed to buying short term paper to restore bank liquidity; and hopes of a Brexit deal squeezed Sterling shorts with no confirmation. The reality for markets is that we remain within a larger degree 4th wave and any push to new ATH's will likely be a wave (B) fakeout. This is NOT the start of a new bull market trend. Near term US equities remain range bound within...

Global economic growth continues to weaken as expected but markets are pinning their "hope" on increased central bank liquidity. Last week's US data confirmed the global weakening trend. Global CB's continue to signal further rate cuts and money printing to help support risk markets. Stay up to date with global economic trends here... https://marscapitalpartners.com/macro-notes/ US equities appear to be consolidating within a symmetrical triangle as bulls and bears fight it our near ATH's....

Last week, equity markets drifted lower from major resistance but so far have held key breakout support. The US dollar continued to grind higher with no evidence of a tradable high. Precious metals reversed sharply lower as expected while Crude Oil gave up all of its post-Saudi shutdown spike higher. The SPX / ES faded lower from cycle high resistance into the 50 day sma support but the decline is NOT clearly impulsive. It has basically back and filled the previous breakout. Momentum...

Last week the Fed confirmed its dovish bias in line with global central banks. As trade tensions subside near term, the market's focus has shifted to continued CB liquidity support in a low growth world. From a technical perspective, equity markets continue to challenge new ATH's. Importantly, the global market rally from the January lows is NOT clearly impulsive which calls into question the potential upside for the bulls. While we may still see a push to marginal new cycle highs for global...

Over the weekend we saw a supply shock for Crude Oil as Saudi refineries were closed. In a world of slowing growth, a continued rally in CL produces a deflationary shock - the question is whether this rally is sustained or quickly reversed. This week's FOMC meeting holds greater consequence as equity markets test ATH's. The ECB has shown its hand opening the door for more QE in the "hope" of stimulating growth in a negative interest rate world. Investors are "hoping" the Fed follows suit to...

Last week, equities pushed higher towards secondary upside targets with no evidence yet of a tradable top. Bonds and PM's reversed lower as expected while the US dollar is attempting a bearish reversal. As global economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate, central banks are fighting to maintain bullish momentum and compress volatility. Notes: US equities broke higher following multi-week consolidationKey indices continue to make higher highs and lowsBond rally was extended as we look for a...

Last week global equity markets held support and reversed higher as the pinball action between the 50 and 200 day sma's continued. We still expect this to be a counter-trend rally before the next wave lower takes hold. Bonds and Gold continued to consolidate recent gains while the US dollar remained strongly bid. The low interest rate strategies of the global central banks have been successful in dampening market volatility for now. This year has seen volumes, volatility and activity decline...

Our bearish equity outlook remains in tact but markets need to break support to help confirm. Equities reversed lower from resistance while key risk indicators, the Yen and Swiss Franc rallied strongly. Bonds and PM's remain well bid while Dr Copper continues to break lower. The Yuan continues to weaken as the China trade wars escalated. Trump continues to threaten markets as the global economy weakens across the board and uncertainty weighs on risk markets. Last week we warned that any rally...

NB: I am travelling this week but will try to update clients as soon as practical. Apologies in advance for any delay in responses. COT data will be updated later this week. Last week equities reversed lower from 50 day sma and 61.8% Fib resistance but bulls continued to hold key 200 day sma support. We remain bearish against ATH's as we expect a continuation of the bigger picture correction / decline. The global bond market rally continued unabated with no evidence of a tradable top as the...

Last week, equities extended declines into our initial 200 day sma targets and then rebounded sharply. Bears have not yet been able to break the primary bull trend as the series of higher highs and lows remains unbroken. Bonds markets met upside targets as the near term trend may be exhausting. Alert to a bearish reversal in Gold while the US dollar remained under pressure. The ES / SPX tagged the 200 day sma support and rebounded sharply. The recent decline from the ATH's is NOT clearly...