The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Markets flipped to risk-off late last week as concerns regarding the Coronavirus spread. We saw near term reversals in US equities, bonds and the Yuan. The market is vulnerable here to a risk-off black swan event. Bears still need confirmation of this potential change in trend. Equity markets continue to struggle at resistance as we look for evidence of a tradable market top. This rally is only in 3 waves from the December 2018 lows. We have momentum divergence at recent highs as the rally...

US equity markets continued to impulse higher into Fib resistance. There are now enough waves in place to potentially wave (v) of C. While we do not yet have strong evidence of a bearish reversal, momentum indicators are deteriorating. This rally is severely stretched so we should be alert to a bearish reversal. This is NOT a time for bullish complacency as risks abound. ES Daily Near term, the ES, YM and NQ all have enough waves in place to complete wave v of (v) of C. While the rally could...

Global equities continue to extend higher towards wave C initial Fib targets with little evidence of trend exhaustion. US dollar weakness continued with commodity currencies leading the way amid hopes of the reflation trade. Bonds remain in corrective declines and are attempting to rotate higher in wave 5. The PM's rallied from support in what is expected to be a 5th and final wave into the new year. Note that due to the holidays, the CFTC commitment of traders data is unavailable. Parabolic...

Please Note: I am travelling next week so may not be able to provide a formal update over the holiday period. I will continue to post important charts as time allows. Have a happy and safe holiday season! Last week, equities pushed to new ATH's as expected in what is potentially a 5th and final wave to this rally leading into the holidays. The wave C of (B) breakout remains in tact and there is no evidence of a tradable top. We will continue to track the internal subdivisions to try and...

Last week, equities fell sharply into support and reversed higher. We expect this decline was wave (iv) of an ongoing bull market trend with new highs likely on deck. Bonds failed to follow through to the upside complicating the near term structure. From a big picture perspective, we still see bonds in a larger 4th wave correction prior to a 5th wave push to new highs. US equities appear to have completed a small degree wave (iv) with wave (v) to marginal new ATH's on deck. Our analysis...

Please note: due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday, the CFTC has not yet published the COT data. We will update when the data is released. Last week we saw equities continue to grind higher in what we believe to be wave C of (B). Bonds continued to correct in what is likely wave (ii) of the larger wave 5 uptrend. PM's continue to hold support while Crude Oil, Natty Gas and Dr Copper all reversed lower. Deflationary real economy despite strong financial assets bid up by herding and Fed liquidity....

The global market melt-up continues unabated. The Fed's force feeding of liquidity continues to push asset prices to new ATH's - this, at a time when global economic growth continues to weaken. See our Macro Briefing Notes for details... The SPX / ES continues to thrust higher in what is likely to be a wave C of (B) rally. There has been no indication of weakness as the series of higher highs and lows continues - the very definition of a bullish trend. The fact that this rally is being fuelled...

Last week saw the continuation of the risk on theme as equities continued to push higher while bonds and PM's fell. The Fed's aggressive buying of short term securities has artificially steepened the yield curve and increased liquidity. The market is all-in with hope the Fed can keep this Ponzi scheme going despite deteriorating economic fundamentals. From a technical perspective, we continue to see this rally as part of a fake-out wave C of (B) high. The bulls have managed to maintain their...