The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week the Fed confirmed its dovish bias in line with global central banks. As trade tensions subside near term, the market's focus has shifted to continued CB liquidity support in a low growth world. From a technical perspective, equity markets continue to challenge new ATH's. Importantly, the global market rally from the January lows is NOT clearly impulsive which calls into question the potential upside for the bulls. While we may still see a push to marginal new cycle highs for global...

Over the weekend we saw a supply shock for Crude Oil as Saudi refineries were closed. In a world of slowing growth, a continued rally in CL produces a deflationary shock - the question is whether this rally is sustained or quickly reversed. This week's FOMC meeting holds greater consequence as equity markets test ATH's. The ECB has shown its hand opening the door for more QE in the "hope" of stimulating growth in a negative interest rate world. Investors are "hoping" the Fed follows suit to...

Last week, equities pushed higher towards secondary upside targets with no evidence yet of a tradable top. Bonds and PM's reversed lower as expected while the US dollar is attempting a bearish reversal. As global economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate, central banks are fighting to maintain bullish momentum and compress volatility. Notes: US equities broke higher following multi-week consolidationKey indices continue to make higher highs and lowsBond rally was extended as we look for a...

Last week global equity markets held support and reversed higher as the pinball action between the 50 and 200 day sma's continued. We still expect this to be a counter-trend rally before the next wave lower takes hold. Bonds and Gold continued to consolidate recent gains while the US dollar remained strongly bid. The low interest rate strategies of the global central banks have been successful in dampening market volatility for now. This year has seen volumes, volatility and activity decline...

Our bearish equity outlook remains in tact but markets need to break support to help confirm. Equities reversed lower from resistance while key risk indicators, the Yen and Swiss Franc rallied strongly. Bonds and PM's remain well bid while Dr Copper continues to break lower. The Yuan continues to weaken as the China trade wars escalated. Trump continues to threaten markets as the global economy weakens across the board and uncertainty weighs on risk markets. Last week we warned that any rally...

NB: I am travelling this week but will try to update clients as soon as practical. Apologies in advance for any delay in responses. COT data will be updated later this week. Last week equities reversed lower from 50 day sma and 61.8% Fib resistance but bulls continued to hold key 200 day sma support. We remain bearish against ATH's as we expect a continuation of the bigger picture correction / decline. The global bond market rally continued unabated with no evidence of a tradable top as the...

Last week, equities extended declines into our initial 200 day sma targets and then rebounded sharply. Bears have not yet been able to break the primary bull trend as the series of higher highs and lows remains unbroken. Bonds markets met upside targets as the near term trend may be exhausting. Alert to a bearish reversal in Gold while the US dollar remained under pressure. The ES / SPX tagged the 200 day sma support and rebounded sharply. The recent decline from the ATH's is NOT clearly...

Last week we had key weekly reversals in risk assets as expected. Equities reversed lower as did the US dollar after achieving our upside objectives. Our bullish bond outlook paid off as the flight to safety took hold. This risk-off turn was confirmed by bullish turns in the Swiss Franc and Yen. We expect this is just the start of a larger correction. The SPX / ES reversed sharply lower from our broadening formation resistance zone after breaking 2970 support. We remain bearish against recent...

This week is a critical juncture for risk assets. Markets "expecting" a 25bp cut and "hoping" for a 50bp cut as risk assets continue to grind higher. All eyes will be on the Fed to deliver on its dovish message with high risk of trend reversal:- Equities have met upside targets with deteriorating momentum and risk a weekly bearish reversal;Bonds remain bullish from a big picture perspective and are consolidating ahead of the Fed;The US dollar is likely topping with risks to the downside;Gold...

Uncertainty reigns given recent flip flopping from the Fed-heads. Equities stalled at resistance but the decline is only in 3 waves; Bonds rallied from support but it is unclear whether the bull market correction is complete; the Yen continues to correct in 3 wave structures with an uncertain outlook for now; Gold pushed to new cycle highs as expected but failed to extend gains; Silver broke higher out of its wedge but the rally is only in 3 waves of equality so far; andCrude reversed sharply...