The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, global equity markets staged a recovery from the Trump tariff decline as expected. US equity markets remain most at risk given the direct conflict with China (unless Trump retreats). So far, the rally has met the minimum expected targets in the 50% - 61.8% Fib retracement range. This is a key week for risk assets as the bears need to make a stand - the immediate bear case is invalidated at new ATH's. Our key risk metric, the USDCNH, remains below key 7.0 resistance - the dividing...

From our last Realvision report on 4th Feb 2019 Tactical Traders Market - "Despite the bearish fundamentals, the most likely outlook is for an eventual push to marginal new ATH's". Since that report, the Nasdaq and S&P500 have indeed made marginal new ATH's while the DJIA and Russell 2000 have lagged. Inter-market divergences at market extremes provide early warning signs for market momentum. We view markets through the prism of fundamentals, technicals and market sentiment. Trump's...

Risk markets were rocked this morning as Trump rolled a hand grenade into the China trade negotiations. The timing couldn't have been worse as traders pressed VIX shorts and equity longs pushed new ATH's. Traders are not positioned for an escalation in the tariff wars. This is the first test for equity market bulls. Last week we tweeted the ES / SPX likely completed wave iii of (v) as we looked for a corrective decline into the 2890 support area. The immediate bull trend remains in tact while...

The global risk-on environment continued with the SPX and DJIA on the cusp of following the Nasdaq to new ATH's (minimum expectations given the 2018 corrective decline). The Russell 2000 is at an important juncture with a strong close over 1600 potentially triggering a chase higher. The US Bonds impulsed higher after completing a corrective 3 waves down so the bearish case for rates continues. The US dollar pushed to marginal new cycle highs as expected but this week is important for follow...

The risk-on rally continued last week with global equity indices pushing higher. The US dollar remains well bid as it approaches key resistance while US bonds are at a key inflection point. The SPX / ES continues to impulse higher as it approaches new ATH's. The bull trend remains in tact until we see a change in character of the market. We continue to see this latest move higher as a 5th wave extension but there is no evidence of a tradable top. Only trade back below 2858 would weaken the...

Last week, we highlighted opportunities in the Bond, Gold and Yen markets and all appear to be playing out well. Global equities continue to trend higher towards new ATH's. Volatility and volume across ALL asset classes are near historical lows - complacency is extreme. The SPX / ES continues to impulse higher in what is expected to be wave (iii) of an extended 5th wave. The series of higher highs and lows continues - the very definition of a bullish trend as the market looks for new ATH's. ES...

Last week, equity market bulls held the opening gap and pushed to new cycle highs extending the series of higher highs and higher lows since the December 2018 lows. The bull trend continues to extend globally. The most important market event last week was the impulsive decline in US bond markets from their non-confirmation highs. This signals a near term change in trend for the bond markets confirmed by the impulsive decline in Gold. Bonds trended impulsively lower last week from recent swing...

Last week we were looking for confirmation of a change in trend but the bears fumbled the ball (yet again). The bulls are attempting to push to new cycle highs to invalidate our near term bear count. Friday's close into resistance was setting up a short in the #ES_F 2837 area but this morning's breakaway gap invalidates that idea until we get evidence of a turn lower. We will update these scenarios on Twitter as the structures unfold. One chart that has caught my eye of late is the Crude Oil /...

Last week, the SPX and Nasdaq pushed to new cycle highs following the dovish Fed but the rally was NOT confirmed by the broader indices with the Dow, Russell, Banks and Transports all lagging. Weakness in global growth sent yields lower pressuring the Banks while the US dollar remained range bound. Bears need to see downside follow through in the early half of this week. Our fundamental macro backdrop of slowing global growth suffocated by record debt levels (deflation) continues to drive our...

This is an important week for the markets with the FOMC on deck this week. Despite the continued slowing of global growth, the markets are rallying on the Fed's dovish signalling. Any change in rhetoric will likely impact markets negatively. In the meantime the bulls remain in control. Last week, the global equity bull market continued with the Nasdaq and SPX making new cycle highs that have not yet been confirmed by the Dow, Transports, Banks or Russell. The longer these inter-market...