The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Our bearish equity outlook remains in tact but markets need to break support to help confirm. Equities reversed lower from resistance while key risk indicators, the Yen and Swiss Franc rallied strongly. Bonds and PM's remain well bid while Dr Copper continues to break lower. The Yuan continues to weaken as the China trade wars escalated. Trump continues to threaten markets as the global economy weakens across the board and uncertainty weighs on risk markets. Last week we warned that any rally...

NB: I am travelling this week but will try to update clients as soon as practical. Apologies in advance for any delay in responses. COT data will be updated later this week. Last week equities reversed lower from 50 day sma and 61.8% Fib resistance but bulls continued to hold key 200 day sma support. We remain bearish against ATH's as we expect a continuation of the bigger picture correction / decline. The global bond market rally continued unabated with no evidence of a tradable top as the...

Last week, equities extended declines into our initial 200 day sma targets and then rebounded sharply. Bears have not yet been able to break the primary bull trend as the series of higher highs and lows remains unbroken. Bonds markets met upside targets as the near term trend may be exhausting. Alert to a bearish reversal in Gold while the US dollar remained under pressure. The ES / SPX tagged the 200 day sma support and rebounded sharply. The recent decline from the ATH's is NOT clearly...

Last week we had key weekly reversals in risk assets as expected. Equities reversed lower as did the US dollar after achieving our upside objectives. Our bullish bond outlook paid off as the flight to safety took hold. This risk-off turn was confirmed by bullish turns in the Swiss Franc and Yen. We expect this is just the start of a larger correction. The SPX / ES reversed sharply lower from our broadening formation resistance zone after breaking 2970 support. We remain bearish against recent...

This week is a critical juncture for risk assets. Markets "expecting" a 25bp cut and "hoping" for a 50bp cut as risk assets continue to grind higher. All eyes will be on the Fed to deliver on its dovish message with high risk of trend reversal:- Equities have met upside targets with deteriorating momentum and risk a weekly bearish reversal;Bonds remain bullish from a big picture perspective and are consolidating ahead of the Fed;The US dollar is likely topping with risks to the downside;Gold...

Uncertainty reigns given recent flip flopping from the Fed-heads. Equities stalled at resistance but the decline is only in 3 waves; Bonds rallied from support but it is unclear whether the bull market correction is complete; the Yen continues to correct in 3 wave structures with an uncertain outlook for now; Gold pushed to new cycle highs as expected but failed to extend gains; Silver broke higher out of its wedge but the rally is only in 3 waves of equality so far; andCrude reversed sharply...

US equity indices pushed to new ATH's after the corrective decline as tweeted last week. With markets at key broadening formation resistance and earnings season now on deck, we are awaiting evidence of a bearish reversal as I don't like the risk/reward of chasing longs here. Long bonds continued to decline into our downside target area with no evidence yet of a tradable low. The USDJPY reversed lower from key 109 resistance while Gold continues to hold our 1380-85 key trend support. Inflection...

Last week, equities pushed higher into our resistance zone as expected. We are approaching a key inflection point for risk assets. Powell's testimony and CPI likely key sentiment drivers this week. While there are enough waves in place to complete this near term rally, there is little evidence of a bearish reversal. My preferred case remains a failed breakout here. Bonds reversed sharply lower after completing its 5th wave triangle thrust while the DXY extended its rally into an impulsive 5...

Risk markets gapped higher today following Trump's Huawei concession as he kicks the trade war can down the road. The problem is that the conflict is NOT resolved and the global economy continues to slow. We find it difficult to be overtly bullish risk assets with this backdrop as we are one bad Trump Tweet away from risk reversal. The ES made new cycle highs following the G20 meeting but we still think this is an ending wave. The unbroken sequence of higher highs and higher lows throughout...

Last week, equity bulls extended gains as expected and we are now testing ATH's and layered resistance. The US dollar reversed lower while Gold broke up and out of a multi-year triangle. Bonds made marginal new highs and reversed lower and Crude Oil broke up and out of 4th wave resistance calling into question the bigger picture trend. With the G20 summit this coming weekend, the Trump/Xi meeting and potential Iran conflict are critical as to whether we see an escalation of the trade wars. As...