The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week we were looking for confirmation of a change in trend but the bears fumbled the ball (yet again). The bulls are attempting to push to new cycle highs to invalidate our near term bear count. Friday's close into resistance was setting up a short in the #ES_F 2837 area but this morning's breakaway gap invalidates that idea until we get evidence of a turn lower. We will update these scenarios on Twitter as the structures unfold. One chart that has caught my eye of late is the Crude Oil /...

Last week, the SPX and Nasdaq pushed to new cycle highs following the dovish Fed but the rally was NOT confirmed by the broader indices with the Dow, Russell, Banks and Transports all lagging. Weakness in global growth sent yields lower pressuring the Banks while the US dollar remained range bound. Bears need to see downside follow through in the early half of this week. Our fundamental macro backdrop of slowing global growth suffocated by record debt levels (deflation) continues to drive our...

This is an important week for the markets with the FOMC on deck this week. Despite the continued slowing of global growth, the markets are rallying on the Fed's dovish signalling. Any change in rhetoric will likely impact markets negatively. In the meantime the bulls remain in control. Last week, the global equity bull market continued with the Nasdaq and SPX making new cycle highs that have not yet been confirmed by the Dow, Transports, Banks or Russell. The longer these inter-market...

Last week the equity market rally stalled at resistance after likely completing an impulse up from the December lows. The US dollar strength continued into resistance while Bonds rallied sharply. PM's rallied off support late in the week. The SPX / ES reversed lower from our 2800-25 layered resistance zone after likely completing wave (i) / (a) from the December lows. While we do not yet have a clearly impulsive decline, we had a bearish weekly reversal candle and non-confirmation high (last...

The global equity melt-up continues. The series of higher highs and higher lows coupled with impulsive rallies and corrective pullbacks continues unabated. We are patiently awaiting evidence of trend exhaustion and a tradable top but the bulls remain in control. The US dollar remains range bound (compressing) while bonds and PM's finally broke down as expected. Last week US equity markets stalled at resistance but we did not get the bearish reversal confirmation we were looking for. We tweeted...

Last week, global equities extended their gains as the cycle of higher highs and higher lows continued unabated from the December 2018 lows. Once again, rates and the US dollar remained largely unchanged while precious metals may have peaked near term. Commodities continued their respective rallies as Dr Copper broke above key resistance and accelerated higher. Please note that we are still awaiting the CFTC to update its Commitment of Traders data. This has been a broad based bull market...

Global equities extended their gains last week as our near term bearish count was quickly invalidated. While equities rallied, it is interesting to note that the US dollar and rates remained largely unchanged for the week. Commodities were also well bid late in the week confirming the risk-on market. The global markets have truly embraced the Powell Pivot. From a big picture perspective, the SPX (our proxy for global risk) only has 3 waves down from the 2018 ATH's followed by an impulsive...

Last week, global equities reversed lower with the SPX and Nasdaq stalling out at respective 200 day sma's. European equities continue to be the worst house in a bad street. Bonds rallied unexpectedly while the US dollar strengthened across the board. Commodities and precious metals also appear to have topped out near term. Please note that we will update the COT sentiment data once the CFTC has has updated its files following the government shutdown. Last week the SPX / ES likely topped out...

Global equity markets either topped in 2018 or are in the process of topping. We have a potentially complete 5 wave impulsive rally from the 2009 lows that terminated in September 2018. However, due to the corrective looking 3 wave pullback into major support, we cannot confirm with confidence that the bigger picture rally is over. We need to see 5 waves down from the highs to signify a change in trend to down. We expect a year of increased volatility as investor hope and faith...

"In the Fed we Trust" - global risk markets continue to be dominated by the whims of the Fed - this is a market where "hope" and "faith" (assurance of things hoped for, evidence of things not seen) are preferred over economic reality and free markets. Our goal as market participants is to understand key market drivers at any given point in time. Dogma of what "should be" is rarely rewarded and despite all of its flaws, the Fed is driving market sentiment and flows right now. This week will...