The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, global equity markets continued their rebound as traders and investors alike embraced the "Powell Put". Markets are at an important near term inflection point as it back-tests the October 2018 lows. So far we only have 3 waves down of equality from the ATH's - we require 5 waves down to signify a bigger picture change in trend. The rally from the lows is only in 3 waves so far and needs to extend into 5 waves up to signify an intermediate change in trend to up. This week will be...

Please note that due to the US govt shutdown, the CFTC COT sentiment data remains unavailable. Expect China trade talks and more Fed speeches (and FOMC minutes) this week to drive headlines and risk sentiment. Last week, Chairman Powell stepped up to intercept the Bears just when the markets were attempting to break down - the reality is that the fundamentals have not changed. The world is drowning in debt and the only solutions are default or continued monetization - Chairman Powell is just...

Please note that the CFTC has not updated its COT data but it should be back online next week. Equity markets rebounded strongly last week from near term support areas. So far, we only have 3 waves down from the ATH's and no confirmed bigger picture change in trend. This latest rally does not appear to be a broad cross-asset risk-on recovery as yields continued lower, PM's remained well bid and the US dollar broke lower against the Yen. The ES rebounded from our 2300 targeted support area and...

Given the holiday shortened week and the fact that I'm travelling over Xmas to visit family and friends, I've posted this update early. The bears remain firmly in control of this market as the Fed clearly signalled no immediate bailout for the bulls. Our bearish equities outlook continues to be rewarded. All US equity indices have either met or exceeded minimum downside equality targets. Given that we have had a good run, we will be alert to any potential changes in trend as we continue to...

Keep a close eye on the Fed this week! Last week, global equity markets continued to decline in line with our bearish expectations. US equity markets are once again testing major support with the Fed on deck later this week. We are starting to see more market mavens such as Stanley Druckenmiller call for the Fed to pause in its tightening despite continued strong US growth. One can't help but be sceptical with equity bulls trying to exit underwater longs. The key question this week is whether...

On December 10th we got a hard test of the October lows in US equity indices. The SPX, Dow and Russell all made new cycle lows while the Nasdaq indices did not. This has important implications and confirms our big picture outlook with the new cycle lows confirming that the October decline was only wave 1 or A of a bigger picture decline. Given today's price action we have three potential near term wave counts but ALL lead to a breakdown of the H&S top markets have formed over the past 12...

NB: Due to last week's holiday, the COT data has not yet been released by the CFTC. We will be updating charts when the sentiment data is made available. Last week, we were looking for the bear market to reassert itself once the wave (c) ending rally completed. While we fell short of ideal upside targets, the decline confirmed our bearish outlook. All indices are now testing major support, a clear break of which should lead to an accelerated decline in wave (iii) of 3 consistent with our...

Last week, the equity bulls made their stand at support as anticipated.  With the assistance of a dovish Powell, equities launched higher in what is expected to be wave (c) of a larger corrective rally. Over the weekend, the US / China trade tensions also subsided adding further fuel to the relief rally.  This week will likely be a key test for the bigger picture market structure as equities rally towards our wave (c) targets from where we should see the bear market reassert itself. The...

NB: I am travelling next week so the update is getting posted early in advance. Please note that the COT data will not be included as it doesn't get released until next week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. This week equities traded lower as expected to retest the October lows - while the Nasdaq Indices have already broken the October lows, they are yet to be confirmed by the broader indices. Our thesis remains the same - the bigger picture trend in equity markets remains down until proven...