The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, the bull trend in equity markets continued to extend higher as expected with no evidence of a tradable top. We continue to see this rally as a wave 3 extension while the 50 day sma trend support holds. While we are wary of the extended nature of this rally and alert to a potential reversal, the bull trend remains intact until proven otherwise. The extreme bullish sentiment and deterioraing momentum warns of potential trend exhaustion (but no confirmation). Our base case remains that...

Last week, the bull trend in equity markets extended higher before a near term corrective decline. We continue to see this latest rally as a wave 3 extension while the 50 day sma trend support continues to hold. While we are wary of the extended nature of this rally there is no evidence of a tradable top. It is important to note that this rally into year end could be an ending wave with the risk of a major bear reversal. The bond markets extended lower but remain range bound from a big picture...

Last week, the bull trend in equity markets continued to extend higher with no evidence of a tradable top. We continue to see this latest rally as a wave (v) of 3 extension while the 50 day sma trend support continues to hold. A rising tide lifts all boats as secondary indices (Russell / SOX) also pushed to new ATH's to help confirm the broader indices. The bond markets reversed lower but remain range bound from a big picture perspective. Ideally, we'd still like to see a hard test of major...

Last week, the equity markets continued to extend higher as expected as the wave 3 rally pushed to new ATH's. Bearish momentum divergence continues to build but there is no evidence of a tradable top. The bull trend remains intact while above the 50 day sma trend support. The bond market rally extended marginally higher to test overhead resistance but remains range bound. The US$ remains under pressure across the board and the DXY would still look best with a push to marginal new cycle lows to...

The bull trend in equities continued to grind marginally higher while climbing the wall of worry. While the bull trend remains intact, bearish momentum divergence continues to build across multiple timeframes. The primary bull trend appears incomplete but the rally is very extended and overdue for a corrective retracement. From a big picture perspective, we are alert to a potential major top into year-end as we approach key turning points in rates and the US$. Bond markets rallied last week...

The bull trend in equities continued to extend higher while climbing the wall of worry. While the bull trend remains intact, bearish momentum divergence continued to build across multiple timeframes. The primary bull trend appears incomplete but the rally is very extended and overdue for a corrective retracement. From a big picture perspective, we are alert to a potential major top into year-end as we approach key turning points in rates and the US$. Bond markets remain range bound but would...

NB: Apologies, but there will be no MCP Market Update next week as we will be on vacation. Last week, the bull trend in equities extended immediately higher invalidating the near term top (as warned). While the bull trend continued to make higher highs and higher lows, bearish momentum divergence continued to build across multiple timeframes. The primary bull trend appears incomplete but the rally is very extended and overdue for a corrective retracement. From a big picture perspective, we are...

Last week, equity markets rebounded more strongly than expected and the lack of downside follow through calls into question the intermediate term top. While the near term rally is overlapping and not clearly impulsive, the potential remains for both an immediate bullish extension higher (green case) or corrective retracement in wave (c) of 4 down (red case). Either way, the primary trend remains bullish for global equity markets leading into year end. The crypto markets continue to reinforce...

Last week, equity markets pushed to marginal new ATH's before reversing sharply lower as expected. The rally was extended and overdue for a corrective decline as warned last week. The impulsive nature of the decline warns that last week's reversal is likely only part of a larger wave 4 corrective retracement. Equity indices formed a daily and weekly bearish reversal candle. Bonds rallied strongly following the weaker NFP jobs report on Friday but remain range bound within a larger triangle...

Last week, the equity market bull trend continued higher for what we expect to be a wave (v) of 3 extension. While this latest rally is very extended, there is no evidence of a tradable top as the bull trend continues to subdivide higher. The big picture rally from the April lows remains incomplete and would still look best with a wave 4 correction towards 50 day sma trend support before a final wave 5 of (5) rally to new ATH's. The bond markets remain trapped within a sideways consolidation...