The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Last week, equity markets traded sideways to down within what appears to be a bullish triangle consolidation. There is no evidence of a long term tradable top as we look for the bull trend to continue higher in wave 5 of (5) once this wave 4 correction is complete. Crypto markets led by Bitcoin continued to decline into key 200 day sma support from where the bulls must make a stand - the potential remains for an ending wave 5 of (5) rally. The bond markets pushed higher for a test of the top...

Last week, the equity market bull trend finally exhausted and reversed sharply lower on a late announcement of further Trump Tariffs. Forewarned is forearmed as we were warning of the extended nature of this rally and bearish momentum divergence. Equities declined sharply on Friday to tag initial support at the 50 day sma from where we would expect to see bulls attempt to make a stand. This anticipated decline is likely only wave (a) down of a larger degree wave 4 corrective retracement. While...

Last week, the bull trend in equity markets continued to extend higher as expected with no evidence of a tradable top. We continue to see this rally as a wave 3 extension while the 50 day sma trend support holds. While we are wary of the extended nature of this rally and alert to a potential reversal, the bull trend remains intact until proven otherwise. The extreme bullish sentiment and deterioraing momentum warns of potential trend exhaustion (but no confirmation). Our base case remains that...

Last week, the bull trend in equity markets extended higher before a near term corrective decline. We continue to see this latest rally as a wave 3 extension while the 50 day sma trend support continues to hold. While we are wary of the extended nature of this rally there is no evidence of a tradable top. It is important to note that this rally into year end could be an ending wave with the risk of a major bear reversal. The bond markets extended lower but remain range bound from a big picture...

Last week, the bull trend in equity markets continued to extend higher with no evidence of a tradable top. We continue to see this latest rally as a wave (v) of 3 extension while the 50 day sma trend support continues to hold. A rising tide lifts all boats as secondary indices (Russell / SOX) also pushed to new ATH's to help confirm the broader indices. The bond markets reversed lower but remain range bound from a big picture perspective. Ideally, we'd still like to see a hard test of major...

Last week, the equity markets continued to extend higher as expected as the wave 3 rally pushed to new ATH's. Bearish momentum divergence continues to build but there is no evidence of a tradable top. The bull trend remains intact while above the 50 day sma trend support. The bond market rally extended marginally higher to test overhead resistance but remains range bound. The US$ remains under pressure across the board and the DXY would still look best with a push to marginal new cycle lows to...

The bull trend in equities continued to grind marginally higher while climbing the wall of worry. While the bull trend remains intact, bearish momentum divergence continues to build across multiple timeframes. The primary bull trend appears incomplete but the rally is very extended and overdue for a corrective retracement. From a big picture perspective, we are alert to a potential major top into year-end as we approach key turning points in rates and the US$. Bond markets rallied last week...

The bull trend in equities continued to extend higher while climbing the wall of worry. While the bull trend remains intact, bearish momentum divergence continued to build across multiple timeframes. The primary bull trend appears incomplete but the rally is very extended and overdue for a corrective retracement. From a big picture perspective, we are alert to a potential major top into year-end as we approach key turning points in rates and the US$. Bond markets remain range bound but would...

NB: Apologies, but there will be no MCP Market Update next week as we will be on vacation. Last week, the bull trend in equities extended immediately higher invalidating the near term top (as warned). While the bull trend continued to make higher highs and higher lows, bearish momentum divergence continued to build across multiple timeframes. The primary bull trend appears incomplete but the rally is very extended and overdue for a corrective retracement. From a big picture perspective, we are...