The Mars Market Update — Live Research
The real-time feed of our flagship technical analysis research notes, providing a structured view of global macro markets each week. Start Your TrialClient LoginCrude Oil / Brent Crude
CL and Brent have both tagged initial upside targets where we would look for a turn lower - The Brent chart shows a cleaner a-b-c retracement of equality after the initial decline.
ES NQ Update
ES failure to push higher towards our sell zone as per the latest update complicates matters. Either we are in a complex wave (b) which holds support then rallies up in wave (c) of 2 as per the update OR we just puke directly from here targeting new cycle lows towards 2450-60. Triangles are usually penultimate waves (4th or B waves) so the move out of the triangle is usually an ending move. Ideally, bulls hold key support and rally back to our targets for the wave (c) short setup. This is a...
MCP Market Update: April 9th, 2018 – The right to arm Bears
This week's report focuses on the potential for a near term stock market bear - I am not discounting the bullish potential while support holds - I am just seeing an interesting setup. Last week we saw some wild gyrations in global equity markets but importantly, the key support levels we highlighted for US equity indices in last week's update (Break Unconfirmed) ALL held. Late last week I also posted the primary bull/bear/triangle counts we are looking at for the SPX (see here: SPX Updates)....
USDCAD Update
Update April 10th, 2018 With Crude Oil and Brent potentially topping here, USDCAD tagged 50% retracement is approaching equality and the 200 day sma with a potentially completed 5 waves down - remaining shorts here are risky as we look for a wave 2/B counter-trend bounce. April 6th, 2018 Friday is an important day for this pair with NFP and Canadian employment on deck. Prices are currently holding at the 50 day sma support with the 200 day coming in around 1.2640. Bears don't want...
SPX updates for the big picture
I thought it would be helpful to understand this market volatility in the context of the big picture SPX wave counts. I see three primary counts and there remains the risk that this entire post-gfc rally is over as highlighted by the Bear count. Bear Case - Market top is in and we now trend lower. Requires a strong break of the 200 day sma and trend support to help confirm. 2. Bull Case - this case presumes that we are in a larger wave (4) correction with wave (5) up to new ATH's still to...
MCP Market Update: April 3rd, 2018 – Break Unconfirmed
The SPX break of its 200 day sma was NOT confirmed by other markets. As expected, the 200 day sma has acted like a magnet across the major US indices as the bulls held support all week only to break on Easter Monday. Our defensive positioning on these markets has not changed. Each rally attempt has been corrective on light volume while each decline has been impulsive on heavy volume - "volume is the footprint of the herd". The question is how can these risk markets rally while Trump continues...
MCP Market Update: March 26th, 2018 – Support is support until broken
Equity markets are testing key support levels early this week. Defending the 200 day sma is paramount to the institutions. The US$ and PM's remain range bound while bonds look to be ending a corrective rally. Crude Oil appears to be on the edge of a major decline with historically high bullish sentiment. USDCAD is our favourite currency play right now. Last week we highlighted the fact that global equity markets were fragmented and the near term path was uncertain - however, we maintained our...
MCP Market Update: March 19th, 2018 – Fragmented Markets
Equity markets failed to follow through on the upside last week as Tuesday's bearish engulfing day triggered a correction in US markets. This week risk markets will be focused on Wednesday's FOMC while awaiting Trump's inevitable attack on China's trade policies. This will have important implications for the US$, Gold, Bonds and global equities. Early last week I tweeted that the Dow was our "canary in a coalmine" as it rejected overhead trend resistance calling into question the bullish case....
MCP Market Update: March 12th, 2018 – Fumble!
Friday was a key inflection point - the market had two binary choices on the post-NFP gap up into our sell zone - (i) an early reversal would have triggered a bearish reversal (ii) gap and go invalidated a number of our near term sell signals - unfortunately for our positioning, the bears fumbled and the bulls took hold to change the near term trend. Knowing where we are wrong is critical for our trading process. The big picture question is whether this is the start of a new bull market to new...
MCP Market Update: March 5th, 2018 – Standing on the edge
Last week we were looking for early equity market strength to fade. Tuesday kicked off a nice impulsive decline that met our initial downside targets. Europe and Asia were the worst hit with Trump stepping up his trade war rhetoric. The bond markets bounced off support but only in a "corrective" 3 waves so far. Finally, the US$ failed to sustain its rally and stalled at our wave (iv) resistance and triggered a bearish reversal day. There is a lot of headline risk this week with Italian...
