The Mars Market Update — Live Research

This week, I've decided to step back for a quarterly review of where the markets are at from a bigger picture perspective and focus on the next opportunities. - equity market rallies are extended and should be completing wave (3) - VIX shorts hit record ATH's - Looking for confirmation of a bullish US$ turn - Traders too bullish A$ and C$ - USDNOK may provide the clues - Gold and Crude traders too long at these levels as waves extend lower The global equity markets remain in strong uptrends...

Last week saw a continuation of the primary themes of global equity market strength, US$ weakness, rising bond yields and declining PM's. I am looking for near term trend exhaustion this week and the nature of these next moves (corrective or impulsive) will be key to the bigger picture direction of markets. Our thesis is that we are in the final sub-waves of a primary wave (3) of V rally from the 2009 wave IV lows for the SPX (Topping). We are nearing the end of this multi-year rally and...

Global equity markets rallied last week as bonds declined impulsively - with FOMC on deck this week, we should expect low conviction markets as the Fed likely describes its QE exit strategy. This will be an important week for the US$ as we search for a tradable low. Bonds declined sharply as we look for a short setup. CNH/CNY may be at a very important juncture right now. I continue to believe the US equity markets are forming tops but I still have no reason to be short. I am not buying this...

The key market trends of a bullish equity market, bearish US$ and counter-trend rally in bonds are close to ending but we have no confirmation of a market reversal at this time. I am as flat as a pancake while I wait patiently for signs of a reversal. Patience and capital preservation is key for me here while the final bulls and bears fight this out. Last week saw a continuation of the weak US$ theme coupled with PM strength and bond weakness. The equity markets failed to follow through on the...

Last week's equity rally confirmed a corrective decline which was either "part" of a larger correction or we immediately push to new ATH's to confirm a 5th wave extension. I still see no reason to embrace equity risk here given where we are in the bigger picture (I don't like chasing) and macro risk. Last week, equities rallied in wave (c) up as expected after the USDJPY held critical 108 support. Important to note: - only 3 waves up so far for equities after 3 waves down - USDJPY held support...

The global equity markets got the early week bounce we had been looking for off the prior 3 wave decline. I continue to believe that the initial decline was only "part" of a larger 4th wave structure. Our targets remain lower but given it is a 4th wave in the midst of a northern summer, we should expect more directionless trade as we test the top and bottom end of the recent range. The Yen, Gold and TY correlation will continue to indicate macro risk in the near term as it pushes into...

Key points: - Only 3 waves down of equality for most US indices (bears haven't proven anything yet) - IF wave (3) complete then wave (4) targets remain lower - Russell broke near term support and is approaching CRITICAL support - Bonds, Yen and PM's at critical junctures for the risk on/off trade - Euro may be forming an important top here but too early to call The US equity markets extended their declines late last week as expected. So far we only have 3 waves down of equality from the highs...

Bears' shot across the bow... but no support broken  Yen, Gold and TY Bonds at a critical juncture What we know: - US equity markets turned down where we needed them to - the SPX formed a weekly bearish key reversal candle - the decline is only in 3 waves so far (corrective until proven otherwise) - bull markets don't give up easily - the Russell 2000 and DAX held near term support - gold, Yen and 30yr Bonds are at key inflection points for risk The weekly SPY ETF clearly shows an outside bar...

Last week, equity markets held near term support with only the Russell breaking lower.  We had an "inside week" for the SPX and Nasdaq while the DJIA continued on to new ATH's. The Bond markets broke lower as expected after reaching our upside targets and it is important for the bears that last week's highs are not exceeded. Precious metals and the Yen turned lower in line with bonds keeping the strong correlation in tact. The net short positioning on VIX futures is making new extremes... this...

We are bearish US equity markets here. All key markets have enough waves in place to complete their near term rallies. With investor sentiment and complacency at extreme levels, near term risk remains to the downside. The US$ is also approaching downside targets with investor sentiment at extremes. The Aussie$ and Dr Copper near term trends are close to exhausting. PM's have rallied strongly as expected questioning the near term implications for bonds. The US equity markets reacted to our near...