The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Global equity markets continue to rally in risk-on mode while the US$ tries to form a base and global rates rise strongly. Many pundits are reminding us that equities historically perform well with rising rates as a sign of a growing global economy. The question I have is given the world now has unprecedented debt levels including personal debt, corporate debt and government debt - just how will the markets react to rising rates? I suspect that "IF" this acceleration in rates is real (a 3rd...

Important Note: I will be on vacation from January 29th through to February 16th, 2018 - I'll be taking this time away from the markets to enjoy some skiing in the US. Thank you for understanding. Last week saw a continuation of our primary trends with strong equities, weak US$, strong commodities and range trading bond markets. It was a strong start to the year for risk-on but what is more important is whether we get follow through this week. This is likely an important week for the US$ as we...

Primary trends remain in tact - US equities continue to impulse higher and decline correctively as the bull trend remains alive and well but probably exhausting. European equities still look like the weakest link. US$ weakness continues as we look for an end to this decline. Bond markets continue to be range bound while commodities are strong in line with the weaker US$. US equity markets continue to look higher to complete another extended impulse wave. I will be looking for signs of a...

Wishing Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year to all our subscribers!!!  Given next week's holidays, the Market Update will be posted later in the week. I will still be available for questions in the meantime. I am personally winding trading activities down for the year as I prepare for an interesting 2018. Equity bulls remain in control as wave (iii) continues to extend with the help of US tax cuts, stronger global growth, low interest rates and supportive Central Banks. Importantly, the...

Last week saw the US equity markets decline from marginal new highs as tax break buyers failed to follow through. Bears didn't do any structural damage to the markets. While we are looking for a small degree 4th wave correction, we cannot yet rule out the possibility of this SPX wave (iii) extending higher towards our 2680 target before the correction takes hold.  Bigger picture, we remain in a bull market and it is tough to fight the positive seasonality into year end. While Bonds and the US$...

Last week's update ran to script with the ES and RTY hitting near term upside targets of 2654 and 1540 respectively before selling off dramatically on "news" regarding the FBI investigation. The "greed is good" tax plan continues to dominate US equity buying as this bull market continues to extend higher into the new year. Friday's volatile session tells us two things: (i) this one-sided market is leaving behind large air pockets of risk (ii) dip buyers remain in control. Friday's 50pt drop in...

Apologies, but given I am travelling this week, I am only able to provide a brief market update. Back on deck next week. US equity markets continue to look bullish with new ATH's with the SPX thrusting higher from the wave (iv) triangle we highlighted last week. Natural ES targets are 2620 then 2654 for this wave higher. ES remains near term bullish while we hold 2568 to the downside (end of wave (e) of (iv) and start of this latest impulse higher). The question is whether this wave is all of...

Note: I will be travelling the next week after Thanksgiving but will try to update charts whenever possible. Key observations from last week: - Russell 2000 rallied impulsively from support (bullish) - European stock indices declined impulsively from upside targets (bearish) - USDJPY declined to initial targets in the 111-112 area - DXY and Euro whipsawed H&S and deciding what to do next (neutral) - Bond markets sent mixed messages and could not break down (neutral) - PM's broke higher...