The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Global equity markets appear to have topped near term while Bond markets reversed sharply lower as expected from important near term resistance levels as the US$ continues to struggle to make upward progress (while still holding key near term support). This is a big week for Bond markets and the US$ - it is a heavy data week with CPI and Retail Sales the key focus for these markets. Note: Due to Veteran's Day the CFTC COT data will be released tomorrow. I will include the sentiment data when...

Last week saw a deluge of news and data including a new Fed Chair announced, a tax plan, BOE rate hike, strong US earnings and dovish BOJ. Importantly, equity markets continued to grind higher along with bonds, while the US$ held support and Crude Oil has attempted a breakout. This week has the RBA and RBNZ on deck with the latter likely more important given the recent Kiwi$ weakness and new government. The global equity markets continued higher in a goldilocks environment with strong earnings...

Last week was important for the macro outlook with the ECB backing away from Balance Sheet reduction and instead maintaining very loose monetary policy. This resulted in a spike down in the Euro as Bunds rallied and the EU-US spreads tightened. We now have the BOJ and ECB confirming a dovish outlook with the FOMC on deck this week to signal its intentions. Likely an important week for the US$. This is a heavy week for data and headline risk with Central Banks (BOJ, BOE & FOMC); Eurozone...

Summary observations: - a big week for bonds to see if TLT can bounce off its 200 day sma and hammer out a near term low - USDJPY breaking above 114.50-115.00 will likely signify an acceleration lower in Bonds and PM's - ES has enough waves in place to complete its impulsive rally - no signs of a reversal as yet - equities vulnerable here "if" bonds can hold the lows - Crude nearing the top of its range - $54 resistance The global equity market rally continues unabated. There are NO signs of...

Important Note: This week I will be travelling and visiting family. I will still be available for questions but responses may be delayed. Apologies in advance. Last week we had good follow through on the turn we identified in the Bond, PM and Yen complex. Equities continued to grind higher with no signs of a reversal.  Thoughts: - ES and YM may be wedging into a near term high ending diagonal - US$ declined impulsively as expected, supporting the PM and Bond rally SPX continues to rally. We...

The global equity bull market continued higher last week as expected with the Nasdaq Indices finally confirming the recent highs of the majors. Late last week we were looking for a spike low to be formed in the Bond, PM and Yen complex. Friday's NFP provided a hammer low in an important support zone which now needs follow through higher to confirm a near term change in trend (a hammer without follow through is just another nail). We are bullish against last Friday's lows. Thoughts: - equity...

This week, I've decided to step back for a quarterly review of where the markets are at from a bigger picture perspective and focus on the next opportunities. - equity market rallies are extended and should be completing wave (3) - VIX shorts hit record ATH's - Looking for confirmation of a bullish US$ turn - Traders too bullish A$ and C$ - USDNOK may provide the clues - Gold and Crude traders too long at these levels as waves extend lower The global equity markets remain in strong uptrends...

Last week saw a continuation of the primary themes of global equity market strength, US$ weakness, rising bond yields and declining PM's. I am looking for near term trend exhaustion this week and the nature of these next moves (corrective or impulsive) will be key to the bigger picture direction of markets. Our thesis is that we are in the final sub-waves of a primary wave (3) of V rally from the 2009 wave IV lows for the SPX (Topping). We are nearing the end of this multi-year rally and...

Global equity markets rallied last week as bonds declined impulsively - with FOMC on deck this week, we should expect low conviction markets as the Fed likely describes its QE exit strategy. This will be an important week for the US$ as we search for a tradable low. Bonds declined sharply as we look for a short setup. CNH/CNY may be at a very important juncture right now. I continue to believe the US equity markets are forming tops but I still have no reason to be short. I am not buying this...

The key market trends of a bullish equity market, bearish US$ and counter-trend rally in bonds are close to ending but we have no confirmation of a market reversal at this time. I am as flat as a pancake while I wait patiently for signs of a reversal. Patience and capital preservation is key for me here while the final bulls and bears fight this out. Last week saw a continuation of the weak US$ theme coupled with PM strength and bond weakness. The equity markets failed to follow through on the...