The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Summary observations: - a big week for bonds to see if TLT can bounce off its 200 day sma and hammer out a near term low - USDJPY breaking above 114.50-115.00 will likely signify an acceleration lower in Bonds and PM's - ES has enough waves in place to complete its impulsive rally - no signs of a reversal as yet - equities vulnerable here "if" bonds can hold the lows - Crude nearing the top of its range - $54 resistance The global equity market rally continues unabated. There are NO signs of...

Important Note: This week I will be travelling and visiting family. I will still be available for questions but responses may be delayed. Apologies in advance. Last week we had good follow through on the turn we identified in the Bond, PM and Yen complex. Equities continued to grind higher with no signs of a reversal.  Thoughts: - ES and YM may be wedging into a near term high ending diagonal - US$ declined impulsively as expected, supporting the PM and Bond rally SPX continues to rally. We...

The global equity bull market continued higher last week as expected with the Nasdaq Indices finally confirming the recent highs of the majors. Late last week we were looking for a spike low to be formed in the Bond, PM and Yen complex. Friday's NFP provided a hammer low in an important support zone which now needs follow through higher to confirm a near term change in trend (a hammer without follow through is just another nail). We are bullish against last Friday's lows. Thoughts: - equity...

This week, I've decided to step back for a quarterly review of where the markets are at from a bigger picture perspective and focus on the next opportunities. - equity market rallies are extended and should be completing wave (3) - VIX shorts hit record ATH's - Looking for confirmation of a bullish US$ turn - Traders too bullish A$ and C$ - USDNOK may provide the clues - Gold and Crude traders too long at these levels as waves extend lower The global equity markets remain in strong uptrends...

Last week saw a continuation of the primary themes of global equity market strength, US$ weakness, rising bond yields and declining PM's. I am looking for near term trend exhaustion this week and the nature of these next moves (corrective or impulsive) will be key to the bigger picture direction of markets. Our thesis is that we are in the final sub-waves of a primary wave (3) of V rally from the 2009 wave IV lows for the SPX (Topping). We are nearing the end of this multi-year rally and...

Global equity markets rallied last week as bonds declined impulsively - with FOMC on deck this week, we should expect low conviction markets as the Fed likely describes its QE exit strategy. This will be an important week for the US$ as we search for a tradable low. Bonds declined sharply as we look for a short setup. CNH/CNY may be at a very important juncture right now. I continue to believe the US equity markets are forming tops but I still have no reason to be short. I am not buying this...

The key market trends of a bullish equity market, bearish US$ and counter-trend rally in bonds are close to ending but we have no confirmation of a market reversal at this time. I am as flat as a pancake while I wait patiently for signs of a reversal. Patience and capital preservation is key for me here while the final bulls and bears fight this out. Last week saw a continuation of the weak US$ theme coupled with PM strength and bond weakness. The equity markets failed to follow through on the...

Last week's equity rally confirmed a corrective decline which was either "part" of a larger correction or we immediately push to new ATH's to confirm a 5th wave extension. I still see no reason to embrace equity risk here given where we are in the bigger picture (I don't like chasing) and macro risk. Last week, equities rallied in wave (c) up as expected after the USDJPY held critical 108 support. Important to note: - only 3 waves up so far for equities after 3 waves down - USDJPY held support...

The global equity markets got the early week bounce we had been looking for off the prior 3 wave decline. I continue to believe that the initial decline was only "part" of a larger 4th wave structure. Our targets remain lower but given it is a 4th wave in the midst of a northern summer, we should expect more directionless trade as we test the top and bottom end of the recent range. The Yen, Gold and TY correlation will continue to indicate macro risk in the near term as it pushes into...

Key points: - Only 3 waves down of equality for most US indices (bears haven't proven anything yet) - IF wave (3) complete then wave (4) targets remain lower - Russell broke near term support and is approaching CRITICAL support - Bonds, Yen and PM's at critical junctures for the risk on/off trade - Euro may be forming an important top here but too early to call The US equity markets extended their declines late last week as expected. So far we only have 3 waves down of equality from the highs...