The Mars Market Update — Live Research

Given the increased volatility over the last few days and important moves in the US$, PM's and Bond markets, I wanted to update members on some potential near term scenarios... The US$ has now broken important long term support. We must now presume we are in a period of increased US$ volatility and a larger 4th wave correction which ultimately targets a retest of the May 2016 lows in the 92.00 area for the DXY. This has important implications for the intermediate term view for commodities and...

We continue to see equities topping near term with risks to the downside while Bonds and the US$ are both at important inflection points. Crude Oil has now confirmed its turn higher while Palladium is threatening to make another marginal new high. This is a very important week for the Euro, Pound and Bond markets. It's also a big week for the CAD. Global equity markets appear to be topping near term to complete large degree 3rd waves within a bigger picture bull market. We are starting to see...

Our big picture global macro trends remain intact. Equity bull markets continue to make new cycle highs as expected while bonds are threatening to break down. Commodities fell hard last week as the one-sided reflation trade stalled with too many longs finally capitulating. There is a good reason why we focus on trader positioning as well as price charts. It tells us when to avoid the herd or actively bet against them in crowded trades. Herd mentality is a key driver of financial markets,...

"If we are truly back in risk-on mode, we should see equities and the USDJPY rally while bonds and PM’s should be sold." MCP Market Update: April 24th, 2017 So far so good with our post French election risk-on stance as the bulls took the ball and ran with it. The Nasdaq and Russell push to new ATH's while the SPX and DJIA fell (just) short. However, the most important market event that happened last week was the DXY made a marginal new low which changes our intermediate term stance on the...

With the French election now "mostly" out of the way we can refocus on the bigger picture market trends. Global equity markets remain within 4th wave corrections as they burn off overbought readings through time and not price. These corrections to date have been very shallow. The US$ is once again testing key support for our bull case while bonds appear to have topped near term. If we are truly back in risk-on mode, we should see equities and the USDJPY rally while bonds and PM's should be...

Headline risks abound: Donald Trump torched a couple of our near term counts last week in Bonds and PM's while he decided to launch tomahawks into Syria and tweet how the US$ was too strong. This will be an interesting presidency. This week will likely be driven by geopolitical events with the French election due at the end of the week and we will see if the North Korean situation stabilises. My base case is that a return to calm will likely see equities hold Monday's lows and rally in wave 5...

Important Notice: I will be travelling with the family over the Easter break starting Thursday and returning on Tuesday. I will remain contactable but my response time may be delayed. Global equity markets held our near term support last week while US$ strength continued unabated despite weak NFP numbers. Bonds rallied most of the week into our target sell zone only to reverse lower despite the weaker than expected jobs numbers and Trump's trigger happy tendencies. We also saw strong bearish...

What a difference a week makes. The investment community was universally bearish the US$ while we were looking for a bullish turn. The Euro proceeded to reverse 250pips lower after getting within 25pips of our sell zone. Unfortunately, sell orders weren't hit and the Euro's impulsive decline never gave us a chance to join the initial move. The other interesting aspect of last week's US$ strength was that it was not universal - it was mostly explained by European weakness. The Yen's relative...

So far so good. We got the wave (c) down in equities we were looking for as our themes of weak US$, strong bonds and strong PM's continued last week. We should expect these themes to continue early this week but we are approaching our near term targets so we need to pay attention to a potential end in these moves. We are not there yet. We are looking for potential major turns in the US$ and Bond markets this week... we will post updates on Twitter (@MCP_Premium) as near term opportunities...

Last week we highlighted the potential for further US$ weakness with the potential for a bullish reversal in bonds and PM's and topping equity markets. The GBPUSD in particular looked bullish and its reversal played out well. What we didn't see was a clear bearish reversal in global equities but the potential remains. So far so good. Given last week's strong and favourable moves across asset markets, we should expect to see some early back and filling this week (corrective retracements) before...